Don's Weekly, 23 December 2024: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

***

Russia

Russia decided not to raise interest rates. Raising interest rates would help slow inflation but it makes it more difficult to borrow money in order to grow the economy. This means that inflation is likely to increase at a faster rate. One impact is that many Russian join the army to make a lot of money from the bonuses. With inflation, Russia will either have to pay a lot higher bonuses to keep up with inflation or men may decide the money isn’t worth signing up. If there is a shortage of men, then Putin may need to resort to conscription, something he’s been trying to avoid.

"The government and others are hiding real inflation figures because if they reveal the truth, they would have to raise wages in the public sector, pensions, and other payments — and they don’t want to spend money," said Russia’s State Duma deputy Nikolai Arefyev. Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development says the rate of inflation is 9.2% but many economists believe it is much higher. Ration cards will be issued to pensioners with low incomes in Kaliningrad but the head of the Committee on Financial Markets believes they should be issued nationwide.

Putin was asked if he took care of Russia since assuming power.

Lt. Gen. Kirillov was the Chief of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defense Troops of the Russian Armed Forces. First, Ukraine charged him in absentia for using tear gas and choking agents 4800 times in violation of the international Chemical Weapons Convention, which Russia signed. Then they killed him. Placing explosives in the handlebars of a scooter, the general and his aide both died when it was detonated. Russia then presented an Uzbek citizen as the Ukrainian agent that carried out the attack. It was the latest in a series of assassinations inside Russia.

Russia claims that 96% of its wounded are returned to the front line. Russian bloggers say that badly wounded are left on the field to die. For both sides, drones cause long delays in evacuations. For Ukraine, the combination of tourniquets and delays cause the loss of limbs that might otherwise be saved. The Russian blogger speaks of incidents in which wounded from one assault are left on the battlefield for four days. In another case, a drone bomb amputated the leg of one soldier and he didn’t reach an operation room for 32 days.

Two drones struck a high-rise building in Kazan, a thousand kilometers from Ukraine. It has been described as both an office building that was unoccupied on a Saturday and a combination of office and unoccupied residential space. There’s no explanation as to why it might be targeted. A five-story building was also hit. Later, there were attacks near or at the gunpowder factory. Besides the gunpowder factory there is also a helicopter factory and a military base.

A third Russian oil tanker was in danger in the middle of the Kerch Strait when its hull cracked. 35 km of Russian beaches is coated in oil from the tanker that split in half. They’re going to need a lot of garbage bags.

In August, eight tanks were damaged at the Rosrezerv oil depot. Satellite images revealed that five more were damaged after the November 29 attack.

Rockets that are approaching or departing your location appear to be stationary in the sky. The target was a large chemical plant that produces rocket fuel and explosives.

The Russian governor said all incoming missiles and drones were intercepted at Novocherkassk, which explains the large explosion at an ammo depot.

The Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov was hit by drones. In November, a column was delivered to repair the refinery from an earlier attack.

The Legion of Freedom burnt some fuel trucks in Novosibirsk.

A Russian An-72 cargo plane caught fire after an explosion at an airfield near Moscow.

A Russian An-72 cargo plane caught fire after an explosion at an airfield near Moscow.

10 km northeast of Murmansk there was an explosion at Severomorsk. A naval base, a couple of airfields and other equipment is in the area. Norwegian sensors picked up soundwaves but no seismic waves, indicating this was an aerial blast.

More than a dozen North Korean additional guns were shipped to Russia.

***

Ukraine

Two Ukrainians were captured in Kursk. One was sentenced to 14 years in prison and the other to 15 years after being accused of shooting to kill both Russian soldiers and civilians, for forcibly moving Russian citizens to Ukraine, and for looting a grocery store.

There are 30 Ukrainian journalists in Russian captivity and half of them have been arrested since 2022. At least 12 have been killed since 2022. Viktoria Roshchyna was both incarcerated and killed by the Russians back in September. She was first arrested in March 2022 while trying to reach the siege of Mariupol. That time she was asked to film a propaganda video regarding humanitarian aid. When she refused, they wrapped her head in a scarf and beat her before releasing her a week later. After brief detentions and sometimes being beaten, most journalists stopped travelling to the occupied territories but Roshchyna continued to return despite repeated requests from editors. In her last trip, she entered Russia from Latvia and many believed she was trying to reenter the occupied territories. She wasn’t heard from for eight months before word got out that she was arrested. She was supposed to arrive at a harsh detention facility in Taganrog on September 19th, but she never arrived. Three months later, her body still has not been returned.

An Mi-8 tracks down a Shahed drone.

***

Diplomacy

Zelensky says Ukraine doesn’t have the military strength to take back Crimea and the Donbass and says they must rely on international diplomacy to force Putin to the negotiating table. In the meantime, the EU sent another €4.1 billion.

Immigrants crossing from Belarus to Poland came prepared.

For some reason, Russia wants to hide the presence of North Korean troops.

The Biden administration will probably use all of the remaining $1.2 billion fund that allows Ukraine to buy weapons directly from US manufacturers, but there’s another fund that let’s the US transfer weapons from it’s stockpiles to Ukraine and they probably won’t be able to spend all $5.6 billion of that fund. The US House won’t pass any new aid bills until Trump is in office to provide direction.

The US is handing over the coordination of military aid to NATO prior to Trump becoming president. Trump’s envoy to Ukraine seems to think that Russian losses are five times higher than Ukraine’s and says this is a war of attrition, just like WW2.

The Trump team says that NATO members should spend 5% of their GDP on defense spending. Currently, 23 of the 32 members meet the 2% GDP target. The Trump team also said they will maintain military aid to Ukraine.

Switzerland has refused to allow arms they sold to be shipped to Ukraine but they are considering changing that law. They also sent $50 million to help with Ukraine’s infrastructure and housing repairs.

The UK said they might send troops to Ukraine to train soldiers.

***

(…to be concluded in the Part 4…)