Don's Weekly, 22 September 2025: Part 1
by Donald Hill (Intro by Tom Cooper)
Hello everybody!
It’s another Monday, and thus the time for Don’s Weekly - the ‘usual’ summary of developments in the War in Ukraine of the last week. Where, from poor Don’s point of view, his work is ever more resembling that of a ‘two-fronts war’: one is continuing to collect info and analyse developments in Russia and Ukraine, but all the time has to keep an eye on the USA. The reason is the super-successful process of enriching Dumpf and other super-rich there, so they can convert the country into a dictatorship. With such consequences like,
Dump made the PR China so mad, this has stopped buying soy beans from the USA, driving thousands of US farmers to the brink of bankruptcy (the last year the USA exported soy beans worth US$13 billion to the PRC… that’s some 55% of all the US soy exports);
Dumpf’s collaboration with Israel to bomb Palestinian negotiators in Qatar made the latter so mad, it’s withdrawing a US$1.5 trillion investment;
Dumpf’s ICE raid on a Hyundai factory made the South Koreans so mad, they’re withdrawing billions in investment in the USA;
Dumpf made Denmark so mad with his threats to seize Greenland that the country has rejected the Patriot SAM-system in favour of the Franco-Italian SAMP-T;
Dumpf’s tariffs on car parts cost Ford US$800 million in the 2nd Quarter of this year alone, wiping out all of its profits…
Oh, never mind. Just like there’s no need to mind that Dumpf has lately accelerated the process of transferring the wealth from the ‘bottom’ 90% of the US population to the top (less than) 1%, resulting in the accumulation of the power in the hands of a handful of people. If the results start reminding you of a dictatorship - which is then also keeping the masses busy by teaching them to hate - that’s a rushed conclusion, you know. Few irrelevant facts, the public mention of which is making one ‘screaming’, but not right. Like if pointing out that tax cuts for the rich and few crooked bankers gambling on different markets are repeatedly crashing our economies, no welfare. Or that the immigrant import-export business was invented by characters intentionally hiring somebody they can underpay for more profit…
All of that is nothing worth attention. So the European politicians - while diligently following in footsteps of the US politicians...
Lets thus distract ourselves. For example with great news, fantastic news. News better than Obama…
While Russia continues savaging Ukraine with attack UAVs, Ukraine has continued destroying the Russia’s refining capacity. AFAIK, the largest refineries hit the last week were the ones in Volgograd and another in Bashkortostan (1,400km from the front). The results would have been even better if Ukrainians haven’t then returned to earlier targeting practices and directed other UAVs to strike the Monocrystal plant (synthetic sapphire production) and the Neptune plant (control systems), plus the HQ of the 35th Combined Arms Army, the HQ of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade… yet another 55ZH6U Nebo-U radar system, a Buk M2, two Pantsyrs, and three Mi-8 helicopters of the VKS…
The reason is that, at least according to official Kyiv, up to 25% of the Russian oil-refining capacity is now out of action - which is growing hopes that the Pudding war machinery might grind to a halt.
Sigh… sure. IF (a huge IF) Kyiv remains focused on striking and re-striking at that capacity. So to keep it out of commission. Instead of granting the Russians time to repair, while striking at something else, as Kyiv is usually doing… (as if we haven’t been there about a year ago…?)
Nevermind. Syrsky has even better news. Indeed: a win. Early the last week, the ZSU has completed the encirclement of remaining Russian forces in the Dobropillya pocket. Principally because the Russians are experiencing growing difficulties with replacing their losses: instead of 30,000-35,000 new troops contracted a month, like through all of the last year, in the entire 2nd Quarter of this year, they’ve ‘only’ managed to mobilise 38,000…
Ah yes… and in the other major oligarchy there - the Russian Federation - Colonel-General Lapin, the former commander of the Northern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, and then the general ‘damned’ to save the 1st Guards Tanks Army as this was encircled at Izyum and Lyman, back in September-October 2022, was - reportedly - appointed the deputy governor of Tatarstan. Correspondingly, his tasks now are going to be such like taking care about the rehabilitation of disabled Russian veterans of this war, providing for their families, but also recruiting additional ‘liberators’.
Why are we mentioning him at all?
Well, in Ukraine, people hearing such news tend to belittle people like Lapin. Like, ‘for a combat general, this is humiliating’.
Oh, how sweet. Almost cute…
But, permit us to remind you: from our point of view, there are lots of good reasons to think that way. However, from Lapin’s point of view, there are lots of good reasons to conclude directly the opposite.
Should there be any doubts, put yourself into the boots of any Russian general: what is the maximum one could achieve in the career?
Theoretically, that would be the act of replacing Gerasimov as the Chief Keystone Cop… erm… Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. Because Gerasimov is in that position since 2012, and has survived all of his and Pudding’s failures, it is meanwhile obvious even to the sparrows on the roof that Pudding considers him so precious, so loyal, obedient to such degree that he’s never going to dismiss him. Pudding fired ‘even’ his Shoygu, but not Gerasimov. Because Gerasimov is faithfully taking care to keep the armed forces loyal to Pudding. Like Feldmarshall Wilhelm Keitel was granted cabinet-level rank by Hitler - although widely considered ‘nothing more but a stupid follower’, ‘a sergeant inside marshal’s body’, even called ‘Lakeitel’ (from Lakai, lackey in English) - and remained loyal to the bitter end (indeed, he served faithfully to Großadmiral Dönitz after Hitler’s suicide, too). Because Hitler valued his obedience. Therefore, and unless Pudding finds somebody even more loyal, more obedient than Gerasimov, there’s no trace of chance of Gerasimov being replaced. And Gerasimov is faithfully taking care there to be no replacement for himself.
And so, after spending the last 3,5-, 5-, 10 years with proving loyalty to Pudding without provoking his wrath, what can a general like Lapin expect to achieve?
Either one ends in a jail, like Ivan Popov (former CO 58th Combined Arms Army, arrested on charges of fraud, but actually because he was bitterly - and publicly - complaining about entirely pointless waste of his ‘desantniki/airborne’ troops), or collects a few additional decorations and then gets some ‘retirement position’ from which one can handsomely cash bribes, or steal at every opportunity, perfectly in peace… and without becoming dangerous for Pudding. Correspondingly, and sorry to differ, but: Lapin must’ve proven his worth to Pudding, and thus ended well.
Bottom line: this war keeps on raging. Indeed, there are impression that its intensity is on increase again. Thus, over to Don.
***
Kursk/Sumy
The 225th Assault Regiment captured Novokonstantynivka and Konstnatynikva and the gray zone was pushed into Russia. Some Russian soldiers had to cross a river-like reservoir to evade advancing Ukrainians. The water can absorb a lot of fragments and explosive power from drones triggered by impact. Further east, the ZSU is pushing from two directions to cut off the small Russian cauldron in Oleksiivka. Indeed, the Russian troops there are already complaining they are operationally encircled.
30 km east of the Sumy battle lines, ammo, weapons and material in the logistics hub for the 810th brigade was bombed.
South of Snagost, 11 km north of the border, a Russian vehicle drives by 11 unarmored and 2 armored vehicles on a 700 meter stretch of road, all destroyed by drones.
The Russian group Rubicon attacks a gas distribution facility 16 km from the front with ten drones.
***
Kupiansk
There is a report that at least some battalions of the 92nd Brigade were transferred from Pokrovsk to Kupiansk and at least a battalion from the 3rd Assault Brigade started moving to Kupiansk on September 13th. This was matched by an element of Russia’s Rubicon drone unit.
Russians have been wearing civilian clothes as they try to infiltrate into Kupiansk. In the last two weeks, 288 were killed and 107 were wounded. 128 of the casualties were close to Kupiansk and the rest were near Radkivka and Holubivka.
There was an oral report of a Ukrainian tank driving east of Kindrashivka but could not conduct its fire mission because more than ten drones attacked it. At least five hit it and the rest missed or failed due to EW. The damaged tank was able to withdraw.
North of Stepova Novoselivka, the Russians advanced by 3500 meters.
Ukraine used specialized munitions in two attacks to flood the pipelines where they crossed the Oskil river. The pipelines, buried two meters underground, could possibly be repaired but they are being monitored and can be attacked again. Russians are now crossing the river by boat, using a submerged rope tied to a tree. The commander of the 429th ‘Achilles’ Drone Regiment says 70% of those who cross the river are killed.
***
Terny
The northern half of 3rd Corps’ 70+ km sector is stable. It hasn’t moved at all in six weeks, and very little before that. Russia is still advancing in the south, though, having cleared the Serebrianky forest up to Yampil - which is: ‘about ten kilometers in the last month’. Zarichne was stable this week in the gray zone, but further north Russia has advanced 5 km in four weeks. In the meantime, the corps is sending some of its assets to Kupiansk.
A tank of the 63rd Brigade destroys a building with four Russians in it. As they have in Kupiansk, Russians in civilian clothes tried to infiltrate Yampil.
***
(…to be continued…)
Trump is idiot. Period.
Good point that Ukraine did a half-ass attempt against the refineries last year. My argument is Russia can prosecute the war indefinitely because it has domestic fossil fuel resources. But if Ukraine can knock out enough refining Russia must import and that would be a serious financial stressor. Also, it's in the interests of other refiners around the world to see Russia's refining capacity off the market. So Ukraine can raise money that way (probably already is).
The problem about all that is it will force Russia to expand the war, IMO. I don't get this "Russia is probing Poland. Seeing what it can get away with." For the sake of argument, if Russia did want to end the war it wouldn't say, "let's talk". It would do what it's doing. Expand the war into Europe and then negotiate from there. The West still doesn't care if Russia keeps 20% of Ukraine. They'll only care if their security is threatened. And it hasn't, in a real way. But Russia can. And might be beginning to do so in a real way. Russia's refineries ARE an existential threat.