Don's Weekly, 22 January 2024: Part 3

The ‘missing’ Part 3 from yesterday…

Diplomacy

Germany’s opposition political leader and members of Scholz’s own party called on the government once again to send Taurus missiles. The government said it wouldn’t send Taurus until the US sent missiles, but the US has since sent a small number of ATACMS. Scholz said that sending the missiles would be an escalation and it’s his job to keep Germany out of the conflict. He’s also reported to be worried about one of the missiles falling into the hands of Russia. In an environment where GPS signals can be jammed, it would need topographical data inputted into the missile so it could navigate by terrain. There is concern that this complicated task would take time, but German technicians could go to Ukraine to teach them or Ukrainians could go to Germany to learn. The Taurus is engineered to counter Pantsyr and S-400 air defenses, and it has a fuse that can sense the voids and layers within a structure, such as a bridge, and detonate at the optimal place. This makes Taurus more effective than the SCALP/Storm Shadow missile against structures like the Kerch bridge. The German government is worried that the Russians could get their hands on a missile that didn’t detonate and learn how to defeat the missile or copy some of the technology. In the end, they voted not to send the Taurus…https://www.politico.eu/article/why-germany-scholz-rattled-sending-taurus-missile-ukraine/

On Thursday, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning the "deliberate, continuous and systematic efforts of the Hungarian government to undermine the founding values of the EU". The vote was 345 to 104. The resolution does not have any legal impacts but it does advance the discussion to remove Hungary’s right to vote in the EU, a lengthy procedure that will not happen any time soon…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-parliament-steps-up-criticism-hungary-ahead-ukraine-aid-summit-2024-01-18/

Estonia is discussing Ukrainians that entered their country to evade the draft…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1747385390904770859

The Polish trucker’s blockade that began in November is now over. The truckers said they would not resume until March to provide time for a resolution…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-polish-protesters-lift-blockade-two-border-crossings-2024-01-16/

In some sort of logic that makes sense in an alternate universe, Slovakia’s representative says the war is the fault of US and if it doesn’t stop then the Slavs will unite and the EU simply does the bidding of the US…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1747318468825813093

Around Christmas, GPS signals in Sweden, Lithuania and throughout northern and central Poland were jammed from Russian locations in Kaliningrad and Smolensk. The GPS of some aircraft was spoofed, making it appear they were somewhere else than where they actually were…https://www.gpsworld.com/from-russia-with-love-for-christmas-jamming-baltic-gps/

Moroccan Connection

The reason why the US sent Bradleys to Morocco was because a year ago Morocco agreed to send 90 of its 300 T-72 variants to Ukraine. They had bought them from Belarus and many were being repaired and upgraded in the Czech Republic. Morocco also sent T-72 spare parts…https://cepa.org/article/morocco-breaks-africas-neutrality-with-arms-for-ukraine/

….furthermore, Morocco is one of primary suppliers of phosphates for the West. Phosphates are crucial for production of fertilisers, without which the modern agriculture (whether in the West, in Ukraine, or anywhere else) is unthinkable…

Finnish Connection

Journalists discovered that 20 Finnish companies owned by ethnic Russians have been exporting high tech goods to Russia. Nine of the companies have ties to Russian industry and intelligence agencies, such as the FSB…https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/15/finnish-firms-selling-high-tech-goods-to-russian-buyers-with-security-service-links-yle-a83729

Medvedev says that even if documents of peace were signed with Ukraine Russia would launch another attack in 10-50 years…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1747608319626269005

Equipment

Russians say the A-50 can track immobile structures and vehicles up to 300 km away and provide this information to missile launchers. They also say that Su-35S and Mig-31BM can launch their R37M air to air missile and that the A-50 can guide it up to 300 km…https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/12/31/su-35s-and-mig-31bm-cannot-see-in-the-air-without-a-50-aewc/

Pending confirmation that Russia has got processors and software of necessary quality, this is all remaining under a giant question mark. Mind that back in November 2014, when Turkish F-16s have splashed that Russian Su-24 as this was violating the Turkish airspace - and did so with their F-16s ‘just’ launching their missiles, but these being guided by one of Boeing E-7s of the Turkish Air Force - the Russians were so shocked by what happened to their jet, they couldn’t explain it and were fabricating all sorts of science fiction instead.

….not only because Pudding was in urgent need of a ‘good explanation’..

Deployment of P-35s

The Russian P-35 is an anti-shipping missile that was first introduced in 1962 and last updated in the 1980s (for a detailed study of this family of anti-ship missiles, see the book From Julietts to Yasens, here). It has been withdrawn from naval service but is still used for coastal defense and can be launched from one of the bunkers guarding Sevastopol or from an eight-wheeled truck. For the first time, there are multiple reports of it being fired on Ukraine and pictures of the wreckage on the ground in a field but there are no details on the impact location…https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-using-giant-soviet-era-ground-launched-anti-ship-missile-to-attack-ukraine

Ukrainian Drones

Ukraine cannot build a surface fleet so they build naval drones. They cannot build an air force capable of penetrating Russian airspace so they build airborne drones. They cannot build a surveillance aircraft so they are building a drone to accomplish some of its capabilities. The Gekata is a radio-technical intelligence complex using a PD-2 drone as part of a system to locate Russian enemy radars, radio-electronic protection mechanisms, air defense systems, and aircraft. The complex can track 200 targets up to 450 km away and the drone can transmit the data or store it for downloading upon landing. The drone can be controlled during flight or it can fly autonomously. It is not yet fully functional but components have successfully been tested in a battlefield environment…https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/12/30/ukraine-is-developing-a-radio-complex-to-catch-russian-s-400/

A report states that in 2023 Russian produced 2 million 122/152 mm rounds and received 1 million from North Korea. It produces 115-130 missiles a month and 330-350 Shahed drones a month, depending on the availability of parts. About 4% of the drones fail to launch or explode upon launch. About a thousand Russians join the military every day, voluntary or otherwise, but the volunteers are motivated by pay. About 80% of imported components come through China though most of it is produced elsewhere…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1746860056417591314

Ukraine says that Russia has 5 to 7 drones for every Ukrainian drone…https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-has-seven-drones-every-one-ukraine-has-army-official-2023-12

The Russian operators using drones say that the centralized production of drones significantly increased the number of drones produced, but the quality of the drones is now much worse. Furthermore, the evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine is constant and quick, not unlike aerial warfare of WW1. Drone models and tactics can change in 2-6 months, but the centralized production of Russian drones might have a contract to produce the same drone for five years with few changes and ever decreasing effectiveness…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747964527319081459

Ukraine developed a kamikaze drone that can penetrate self-propelled guns and IFVs…https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraine_developed_advanced_efp_s_armor_piercing_ammunition_for_fpv_drones-9146.html

The producer of the Lancet says that it was used 872 times. They also said 698 targets were obliterated but that is less believable…https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/01/01/russian-lancet-uav-was-used-872-times-destroying-698-targets/

A year ago Ukraine estimated that 20% of their drones killed their targets. An expert now says that the kill rate for a drone ranges from 20-70%, depending on the unit expertise, the EW environment, Ukraine’s adjustment to the EW environment, the quality of the drone, and the quality of the intelligence. His guess on the national average is a 30% kill chance per drone. Anytime a Ukrainian unit learns something they pass it on to the rest of the drone units in the army…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748681037821919526

A lot of Russian vehicles use jammers to provide protection against some drones. Now we’re seeing them on Bradleys. A couple weeks ago there was an example of one being used on a Ukrainian truck…

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1748662191299936480

Modern NATO tanks and IFVs are not invulnerable but they are more likely to survive anti-tank attacks than Soviet/Russian and older western vehicles. It all depends on what is attacking and where it hits. This Leopard functions after being hit twice by ATGMs…

https://twitter.com/ba_groslav/status/1746282385505685721

Russian bloggers are useful to read with skepticism but this one says that Ukrainian drones are all over the Zaporizhzhia front and probably elsewhere. They are often prone to exaggerating both positive and negative events but this blogger says that 14 drones chased one infantry fighting vehicle…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1746464551258722739

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France originally sent 50 SCALP missiles. They’re sending 40 more…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1747385363306348663

There’s a lot of explosives in a MICLIC…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1747627194069725591

Ukraine had 60 Buk air defense systems that were idle because of a lack of missiles. Ukraine wanted to jury rig them to use American-made missiles but the US insisted on doing the work. After seven months of testing they approved the use of Buk launchers and radars with Sea Sparrows. Ukraine sent 17 to be refitted but the US could only refit 5 per month. It was known as a FrankenSAM system and has been shooting down Russian targets.

Spain donated some old HAWK launchers and it was known as a FrankenSAM system because the program to develop the Improved HAWK began in 1964 so it’s like reviving a corpse. It also shot down Russian missiles and drones. A third FrankenSAM combination uses the AIM-9M Sidewinder, maybe from the Osa (SA-8 Gecko). It’s being tested with no date given for deployment.

….and then there are the reports of the Patriot system using an S-300 radar to engage the A-50U and IL-22M planes last week…

The Sea Sparrows, Sidewinders and I-HAWK missiles were either retired or close to being phased out and there are a lot of them. Now they’re doing an effective job in Ukraine…https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/frankensam-systems-are-now-shooting-down-drones-in-ukraine

Expenditure of Artillery Ammunition

Ukraine is using 5,000-8,000 artillery shells a day compared to 15,000 for Russia. Europe was supposed to deliver one million shells by spring but have only delivered 300,000 so far. France is expected to increase its shell production to 3,000 per month sometime during this year. They will send 50 guided bomb kits a month…https://today.rtl.lu/news/world/a/2159604.html?fbclid=IwAR25R0Pok7dYD5MtwzNsjEfT2hWk0YVSV1sodfZ-t_SaMgI4xRg67OD8Fd4

Bradleys

Some have wondered why the US hasn’t sent more equipment that’s in storage. All the remaining Bradleys in storage are going to be repurposed to replace M113 support vehicles, such as mortar carriers, medevacs, command posts, etc. It is entirely possible that more M113s will eventually be sent to Ukraine as support vehicles. In the meantime, Ukraine has the CV-90 that is very similar and one Ukrainian brigade is already equipped with them. They are still being produced in Sweden and they will be produced in Ukraine at some point.

Only 31 M1s have been sent when there are 3700 in storage. These are in various states of repair. The 31 sent to Ukraine had to be refurbished and the 366 that is being delivered to Poland won’t be finished until the end of 2026.

The M109 has been around since the 60s and the last model was produced in 1999. It has a range of 24 km. At least 167 have been sent to Ukraine (from Norway, Latvia, UK/Belgium, US and over 100+ from Italy). 31 have been destroyed and 15 damaged. The French Caesar has a range of 42 km. France sent 30 and Denmark another 18. Five have been destroyed. By early 2025 they plan to send 78 more. Six will be paid for by Ukraine, 12 will be paid for by the EU, and the other 60 will be paid for by other countries of the “artillery coalition”.