Don's Weekly, 22 April 2024: Part 2
(….continued from Part 1…)
Russia
400 km southeast of Mariupol, a Russian bomber falls out of the sky after being damaged Ukrainian air defenses while launching missiles…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1781218052916256903
This unit supposedly shot down the Tu-22…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1781223014278877458
A chemical plant in Kamian, Rostov, makes solid fuel for anti-aircraft missiles. It was hit by drones…
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1780891537888411669
An oil depot burns in Smolensk…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1781584838186647556
It’s hard to determine if radar in Russia was damaged in a recent attack…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1781379244725096862
A Russian analyst says there will be no breakthrough, Ukraine has become stronger, and that Ukraine will still be here in two years…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1781244469766922515
Russia is considering making poor quality gasoline in order to fulfill domestic demands. This gasoline will degrade engines and the lack of parts will make repairs difficult…
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1779951662955655460
***
Ukraine
We’re preparing a ‘special report’ summarising the Russian efforts to destroy all the thermal power plants in Ukraine, back in March. This is to follow in the coming days.
In this place, let us just observe that there’s not much to add in this regards but a sort of a warning: for all of us collecting related info, analysing it, filling ‘reports/updates’ like this one, and then reading them - ELECTRICITY is something ‘absolutely normal’. It’s always here, it’s everywhere, it’s available, and - except when its prices suddenly go up, like two years ago - we tend not to care much about it. It’s almost like the air we breathe or water we drink or like the fact the Sun goes up in the East in the morning, and goes down in the West in the evening….
However, mind that this fundament of modern-day civiliation is anything else than ‘guaranteed’, ‘self-understanding’ or anything of that kind. Indeed: there’s a huge industry providing electricity services.
In Ukraine since March this year, much of that industry is in ruins.
With other words: in Ukraine, electricity is anything else than ‘granted’, ‘given’, ‘guaranteed’ or whatever else you want to call it.
There is no way to emphasise this strongly enough. When there is no electricity, there is no civilised life, either. If Kyiv and its incompetent, hesitant Western allies do not figure out a lots of solutions during this summer, the situation with the supply of electricity is going to become a major issue - at latest the next winter.
….and even then, let us remind everybody: the Russians - the same characters that have blown up the Kakhovka Dam, causing a major catastrophe, the last summer - are still controlling Enerhodar, the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe.
***
Diplomacy
….which is bringing us to the next point, because entire armies of corrupt incompetents ‘over there’ do care about electricity and similar issues - but then so much, it took them only ‘months’ to ‘do something’… With other words: for the mass of US-Americans the dire situation of the energy supply in Ukraine is entirely incomprehensible.
The House (the Congress/Parliament of the USA) passed their own version of the aid bill to Ukraine. It will be passed in the Senate on Tuesday and signed by the President. The US said that the first shipments will be in Ukraine by the end of the week.
Rep. Greene tried to sabotage the aid bill in any way she could. Here is a list of amendments she proposed…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1781089528331096349
If you’re interested in the inner workings of the US congress from Jeff Jackson’s point of view, he explains it here.
As expected, the US made logistical preparations to move ammo quickly once the aid was approved…https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/19/pentagon-prepares-package-of-artillery-air-defenses-for-ukraine-as-house-sets-to-vote-00153328
On the one hand, Biden strongly supports providing Ukraine with $60 billion on top of the $75 billion they’ve already given in aid. On the other hand, he won’t allow US weapons to be used on targets in Russia, and he doesn’t want Ukraine to attack refineries with their own weapons. He also leads a country that has been slow to increase production and won’t be providing decisive amounts of aid in a timely fashion, but that just makes him one of Ukraine’s allies. People keep searching for possible reasons why Biden made these choices…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26556
An update of overall aid given to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP. Estonia leads the way with over 3.5%. The US is under 0.5% but given it’s large economy that’s still good for a leading $75 billion with $60 billion more on the way.
National efforts are going to have different priorities, and certainly WW2 was a high priority for much of the world. Plus, as the US economy grew over the decades, a lower percentage is still going to represent a lot of money. The graph below shows the level of US priority at different times. It reflects overall defense spending, not just the amount spent on a particular hot or cold war.
A discussion in the US Congress about facism in both Russia and Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1781337606808060042
Although their government opposes aid to Ukraine, Slovakian citizens raised €2 million in 48 hours…
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1781389856406413330
Georgians express their opinions on the pro-Russian foreign agent law…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1779967429461807193
From February 28, 2022…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1782039873978777852
***
Equipment
The pre-war and current number of artillery pieces in Russia…
https://twitter.com/HighMarsed/status/1780966133803204770
Two OSINT teams discuss who has the edge with FPV drones. Based on interviews with Ukrainian commanders, one team says that Russia has a 7:1 quantitative advantage, but not a qualitative advantage. There was a caveat that this might only be true in some locations, not the entire front. The other team follows a “ton” of Russian accounts, as well as Ukrainian units. They report that the Russians say the Ukrainians have the FPV advantage. The best summary is, “if you talk to Ukrainians, the Russians have the advantage. If you talk to the Russians, the Ukrainians have the advantage.”…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1779916646280266187
The Russians are using 500 glide bombs each week…https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/11/mass-use-of-guided-bombs-driving-russian-advances-says-ukraine
2,000 short-ranged jammers were sent to Ukrainian units…
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1780591724781265053
A damaged Patriot launcher was returned to the US for repairs…
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1781957037812773011
Lithuania sent a plane by truck to Ukraine that they used to train flight control officers…
https://twitter.com/Lithuanian_MoD/status/1781670775994405220
Ukraine has a kamikaze drone with a 3,000 km range…
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1781304618527383896
The Russians talk about the state of their ammunition, among other things…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1781588438304641209
The first of 140 Challenger 3 tanks will be delivered to the UK army in 2025. Building modern armored vehicles is expensive and slow. They were originally scheduled to be delivered in 2027 but they decided to speed up production after Russia’s invasion…https://censor.net/en/news/3485442/serial_production_of_challenger_3_tanks_starts_in_uk#:~:text=The%20construction%20of%20domestic%20Challenger,country's%20Defence%20Minister%20Grant%20Shapps.
As mentioned before, Ukraine will receive ATACMS…
https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1782087627279040748
The Wild Hornets are developing AI that allows FPV drones to acquire and track targets. All of their funding comes from donations and their drones have destroyed $600 million worth of Russian equipment…
https://twitter.com/wilendhornets/status/1782080094770549226
Thanks Don!
Similar to the attack on the Shahed assembly facility in Kazan, this attack on the chemical facility in Kamian hit an administrative building - not a big “bavovna”. But unlike Kazan, Kamian is much closer to Ukraine…
Thanks for these interesting reports Don, hoping next weeks report will be about new US aid arriving in Ukraine. Hang in there Ukraine guys help is on the way