Don's Weekly, 21 October 2024: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(….continued from Part 2…)

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Russia

The Sverdlov Ammunition plant was attacked by 14 drones 760 km from Ukraine. Seven drones were reported to hit the plant, which is 16 sq. km in size. While explosions were recorded, the actual damage has not been reported yet.

This is a map of all the Ukrainian attacks in Russia with a chart of the frequency of the attacks

The same chart is broken down by target type.

Lipetsk-2 airfield was attacked again. Aircraft, fuel, oil and ammo are at the location but actual damage hasn’t been reported yet.

Russia formed a 3,000 strong battalion of North Korean soldiers, which might be deployed in Kursk. Another report says the battalion has 2,600 men. There is a report that 18 North Koreans deserted 7 km from the Ukrainian border and the Russians are searching for them and hoping their superiors don’t learn of the incident.

A Russian colonel was killed in Moscow after eight shots were fired into his car. Witnesses identified a Mitsubishi Outlander the drove by at the time of the shooting. The driver was interrogated but is just a witness. The theory is that someone shot him while on foot and escaped through the forest to avoid cameras.

Six masked men broke into a helicopter parts manufacturing plant in St. Petersburg and smashed machinery with axes and hammers. They took the phones of the workers that were there. The employees think they may be from their competitors.

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Ukraine

The commander of the 13th Brigade thinks the mobilization age should be lowered to 21. Others understand the sentiment but are concerned about the narrow demographics in that age group and worry about the future of the country.

Low birth rates 20-25 years ago resulted in a very narrow demographic band among Ukrainian young adults.

The past has an influence on the present. This 2014 chart shows that so many Ukrainians were killed during WW2 that birth rates were impacted a generation later, which, in turn, had an impact on the generation that followed. Coupled with economic concerns, emigration and the worldwide trends of lower birth rates, Ukrainian birth rates kept dropping until it was only 1.16 children per family in 2021. Since the full scale war, that has dropped to under 1.0, one of the lowest in the world. 2.1 children per family is needed to maintain a population. Anything under 1.3 means that a population will decrease at an ever increasing rate.

There were 494,521 babies born in Ukraine in 2013. In 2021, there were half as many. Many nations are facing economic issues due to low birth rates and for Ukraine they will be a major concern. The reason why Ukraine does not draft men at 21 or 18 years of age is because the future of the nation depends on them, even though the nation is currently threatened.

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20% of the Ukrainian POWs that were returned were not on any list of known POWs. There are over 40,000 Ukrainians that are missing. Many are probably dead, but Ukraine believes that half of the missing may still be alive.

A Patriot battery launches against an unseen aerial target.

It will take up to 200 years for Ukraine to clear all the unexploded ordnance in its country. Should there be any doubts: mind that the Ukrainians are still and regularly uncovering WW2 munitions.

Churches affiliated with Russia were banned in Ukraine on August 24th. A few dozen of the 10,000 churches with such an affiliation have been criminally charged. At one church a former military medic asked the parishioners, "How many more people need to die for you to stop going to the Moscow Patriarchate?" There was then a confrontation between him and the priests. They initially said he dropped a bible and the priests wanted to stop him, but a video showed that the priests accidentally dropped the bible. They then said he spilled holy water. In any case, the clerics put the medic in the hospital with a concussion and he was charged with hooliganism based on their statements. When a video was posted showing the event, two clerics were also charged with hooliganism. That church is now led by clergy that do not answer to Moscow.

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Diplomacy

South Korea says 12,000 North Korean troops are training in eastern Russia. Ukraine says the number is almost 11,000 and their training will be complete on November 1st. They also say 2,600 North Koreans have already been sent to Kursk. North Korea has an army with 1.1 million soldiers plus 180,000 in their air force, navy and strategic rocket corps. They have 26 million people in their country.

France is offering temporary visas for Russian deserters that want to apply for political asylum.

Lukashenko says Belarus needs to be part of the negotiations or “they” will take half their country. But they aren’t given a seat at the table because Lukashenko cannot be bent.

Ukrainian units have long relied on donations to provide them with equipment that the Ukrainian or foreign government do not: Vehicles for logistics or casualty evacuation, generators, night vision goggles, laptops, monitors, phones, tablets, batteries and other essential equipment. Donations, both foreign and domestic, are also a boost for morale knowing that there is public support for their fight. Over $1 billion has been raised in donations, but the money is drying up. “Come Back Alive” raised $38 million in 2022 and less than $19 million since then. In Europe, there are 7 to 10% fewer people that are willing to donate to Ukraine. In the largest economy of the world, pro-authoritarian politicians held up US aid for months. Even after aid was reestablished, the number of Republicans that oppose aid increased five-fold and the overall opposition increased to 24%.

Equipment bought with donations are collected in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey in March 2022, and food donations are collected in Lyman, Ukraine last month.

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Equipment

As their conventional artillery is destroyed and their artillery barrels wear out, the Russians will increasingly rely on rocket artillery, known as Multiple Launch Rocket System/s (MLRS). While they can launch a large amount of firepower in less than 30 seconds, the unguided rockets are not as accurate as conventional artillery. On the other hand, the rocket tube does not degrade with use and they are easy to manufacture, unlike conventional artillery barrels.

In February 2024, Russia had 1,130 MRL’s in Ukraine. At least 426 have been visually confirmed as destroyed. The Kiel Institute believes Russia is producing 13 systems a month and that 80% of those produced are refurbished from storage. Jompy believes they are producing more. Most of the stored systems are gone but they have been pulled not just to replace losses but to expand the number of systems in use.

In 2022, Russia was producing 250,000 152 mm rocket rounds and 33,000 122 mm rocket rounds a year. They are expected to build 1,325,000 152 mm rounds and 800,000 122 mm rounds in 2024. This may seem like a lot of ammo but if just 200 systems fire a complete salvo of 40 rockets a day, they would consume almost 3 million rounds. One of the reasons why Russian may not be producing more MRLS is that they have plenty on hand for the quantities of ammo they are producing. At this point ammo is the limiting factor, not vehicles.

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A Russian artillery commander said they recently destroyed an M777 artillery piece with the first shell at 28.5 km. This is possible with new barrels that haven’t been worn out through use. Older barrels won’t shoot as far or as accurately. But most of the guns in his regiment have worn out barrels. On top of that, shells manufactured at different locations (both in Russia and North Korea) have different levels of gunpowder, which throws off calculations for accurate fire.

Australia is receiving M1A2 tanks and is sending 49 of the older M1A1’s to Ukraine.

"In the coming months, the US will provide Ukraine with a range of additional capabilities, including hundreds of air defense interceptors, dozens of tactical air defense systems, additional artillery systems, significant quantities of ammunition, hundreds of APCs and IFVs, and thousands of additional armored vehicles."

Ukrainian decoy drones have aluminum on their wings to create a larger radar return. They try to draw missile fire away from the strike drones, as this CNN video shows.

Most of the Russian tank losses are models that are no longer in production.

Over 2/3 of the Russian IFV/APC losses are not in production. Over the last four months, though, the losses of models still in production are slightly rising.

For most of the war, for every 2 Russian IFV/APCs that were lost, one Russian tank would be lost. In the last four months the rate has changed to almost 4 IFV/APCs lost for every tank.

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(…to be continued…)