Don's Weekly, 20 November 2023: Part 2

(….continued from Part 1….)

Mokri Yaly Valley

There’s been little news from this sector, but last week had a rare tank vs. tank battle in a small assault…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1725079989773627739

Robotyne

Firing at drone operators is a form of counter-battery fire. Ukraine engages a team at Verbove…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1725457154016965113

The 47th Brigade is now in Avdiivka but a wounded company commander talks about the preparation and execution of the offensive back in June, with the expectation that Robotyne would fall on the first day…https://militaryland.net/news/offensive-through-the-eyes-of-a-soldier/

A Russian air defense unit near Tokmak is destroyed by a team of Shark and Switchblade 600 drones…

https://twitter.com/yaroslav_loki/status/1725890548693610654

Kherson

The Ukrainians have made small advances in their perimeter around Krynky and Russia continues to pound the village with airstrikes, artillery and thermobaric rounds. That said, the crucial point is: Ukrainians have established a firm bridgehead in the Krynky area, and all the Russian attempts to push them back into the marshes have failed, at least so far….

This week saw the appearance of a small number of Russian armored vehicles. They had avoided engaging with them due to Ukraine’s air superiority with drones, and many of those that appeared were knocked out by drones. Russian targets 50 km away are being observed and targeted. I have not heard any credible reports about Ukrainian advances between Sahy and Pidstepne, but that does not mean there weren’t any small advances.

There more Russian airstrikes on Krynky. This particular airstrike is further west, indicating Ukrainian advancement to the west…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1725905159425835176

A lot of the small houses in Krynky are rubble and only the frames are left on the greenhouses…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1724809745859784864

Another look at what’s left of Krynky while being bombarded by propaganda…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1725902253586845735

In a rare sighting of Russian armor, two Russian tanks approached Krynky. After artillery shells landed closeby, they withdrew, but one was immobilized and later eliminated by drones…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1724771135848407279

A Russian SU-34 drops a 250 kg UMPK bomb 50 km from the front lines…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1724415556835525072

Krynky was attacked by a TOS-1 last week. A TOS-1 was destroyed near Krynky this week…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1725842370518773852

As much as TOS-1 are fearsome weapons, they have their own drawbacks, too. Firstly, they’re short-ranged: the original TOS-1 had a range of only 3km; latest variant mere 6km. Means: TOS-1 launchers must approach very close to the frontline to fire. Usually, this is exposing them to Ukrainian artillery and UAVs.

The other disadvantage of TOS-1 is that they’re unprecise. They’re ‘useful’ for demolishing entire villages, no doubt, but: the Russians can’t deploy them to target specific fortifications, not even specific buildings: indeed, they can’t even deploy them anywhere near their own troops. However, this means that when TOS-1s are deployed, then there are no Russian troops anywhere within around 1000m from the area in question (which, in turn, is why the Russian TOS-1-strikes on Krymky of 11-17 November are a clear indication that no VSRF or VDV troops have been left inside this village at all). Indeed, ever since the ZSU has strongly reinforced its UAV-activity in this area, targeting almost every Russian vehicle it could find. So much so, even the Russian electronic warfare activity was suppressed, and then we’ve got lots of videos of knocked-out tanks, trucks, and artillery pieces to see.

Dialog from inside a vehicle being chased by a Ukrainian drone near the Sahy crossroads…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1724334371694432744

Brief clips of the attacking drone…

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1724115988814168555

A Ukrainian boat is attacked by a drone bomber. You can see in the water how far some of the fragments fly…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1723982231025127816

A Russian tank near Krynky tries to hide as a pile of garbage. Soon after detection, it is attacked and ends up lightly smoking…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1725144083142709501

At Brylivka, 35 km south of Krynky, Russian troops were detected occupying large houses. Each were attacked by M31 rockets…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1724502654053703918

No one has a more precise description of this building other than a “Russian base”, but there were Russian vehicles outside of it. 50 km southeast of Nova Kakhovka, it is now heavily damaged with unknown casualties…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1725798824835182801

An Russian air defense system was destroyed 50 km from the Dnieper…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1726222097184088415

There have been a few reports of how Ukrainian kamikaze drones wait on the ground nearby, waiting for a target to return. A different drone observes when the target arrives, and then the kamikaze drone lifts off and attacks with little time for the target to react…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1725789172718358894

That all said, this battle is far from over: the ZSU will have to clear at least 15-20km around Krymky before constructing a pontoon bridge over the Dnipro.

Why this?

Because right now it appears the Russian air force is ‘limited’ - probably by Ukrainian air defences - to deploying its MPK/UMPK glide bombs for striking targets around 10km behind the frontline. It’s not like it’s not trying: it does. For example, on 15 November the VKS was heavily bombing even bridges on the Oskol River, about 10km behind the frontline (with MPK/UMPKs). The reason why are thy doing this is obvious: they’re trying to prevent Ukrainian reinforcements and supplies from reaching the Dnipro and then crossing the river. However, they can’t get any closer to the frontline to target objects deeper behind it: they do not dare releasing their glide bombs from any closer than about 50km from the frontline.

Thus, there is at least some trace of good news in regards of Ukrainian air defences over the battlefield. Still, ‘10km’ is not enough: Ukrainians will have to push them further away from Krymky.

Crimea

The Ukrainian partisan group Atesh claimed to scout the equipment and personnel of a Rosgvardiya unit in Yevpatoria. Besides scouting and sabotage, in a past mission they were able to enter a barracks and kill Russian soldiers why they were sleeping…

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1725774367546642913

The Black Sea

After a grain ship was hit by a missile last week insurance rates went up. This week, a grain ship was lightly damaged by a sea mine…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/grain-ship-lightly-damaged-off-ukraine-likely-hit-sea-mine-sources-2023-11-17/

A report that claims Russian can load missiles onto ships at Sevastopol but not Novorossiysk. Unless they move to Sevastopol to load the missiles, they will be unable to launch from the sea…

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1724031455183937752

(…to be concluded in the Part 3….)