Don's Weekly, 20 January 2025: Part 2

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 1…)

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Andriivka

Despite the bombardments and Russian advances on the flanks, Ukraine still occupies Dachne. It remains to be seen if the continued occupation will be worth it.

Russia conducted the traditional rocket and artillery attacks in Dachne. Kostiantynopil was also shelled, as was positions south of Stari Terny.

3.5 km south of Rozlyv, Russian BMPs run over mines.

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Velyka Novosilka

Neskuchne was the first village liberated in this sector during Ukraine’s 2023 summer offensive. Russian soldiers raised a flag over the school building, the only multi-story building in the village. Soon after, they raised a flag in Vremivka. A Ukrainian pickup truck is destroyed in the center of Velyka Novosilka. The town itself was bombarded by several rocket and thermobaric attacks and the encircling Russian forces only left a 2 km gap through which the Ukrainian defenders could retreat.

Two soldiers from a Territorial Defense unit were recently captured. The commander of the Russian troops gave the order over the radio to shoot them. The Ukrainians heard the order and ran, but were shot and killed. Ukrainian forces observed the killings and tracked the men responsible. Special Operations troops went into their positions and killed some and captured the rest. Two of those captured took part in the executions and some of the prisoners are providing testimony about the event.

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Russia

Swedish economist Anders Aslund says that stagflation (inflation plus minimal growth) is coming to Russia and they’ll run out of liquid reserves in the fall of 2025. He also said that sales of new properties are down 50% and the two biggest real-estate developers are almost bankrupt. Food and household chemical prices rose 22.1% in a year. If durable goods and services are added, total inflation is somewhere between 12-22%, much higher than the official 9.5%.

Since 2022, the total amount of loans to all Russian companies is $415 billion. The Russian government forced banks to loan defence companies $210-250 billion at preferential rates, even if they had poor credit. These loans are a risk and an event could create a credit crisis. Given the other off-budget costs of the war, it is possible that the money spent on the war has already started to decrease. It will certainly decrease when the last of the liquid reserves are spent.

Russia needs tantalum to produce high-quality capacitors.

Six days after the aviation fuel depot at Engels air base was hit, the fires were diminishing, so Ukraine hit it again and it’s still burning the next day. A total of 8 out of 56 tanks appear to have been hit. Distilleries were hit in Tambov and Tula. Also in Tula, an electrical short circuit caused a fire in a hospital that treated conscripts. An oil depot in Voronezh was hit. A refinery in Kazan was hit as was another refinery in Saratov. An ATACMS hit a chemical plant in Bryansk.

Communication towers were reportedly burnt near Krasnodar.

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Ukraine

Previously reported, this is the story of a Ukrainian soldier who fought in Mariupol, helped save a family and was then betrayed by the father of the family to the Russians. Here is Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3 of the threads.

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Diplomacy

The next US Secretary of State said that Ukraine needs to make concessions and that Biden’s statement of supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes is unrealistic. “Ukraine isn’t running out of money, it is running out of people,” he said. “If we want to be honest about bringing that [war] to an end, true diplomacy will require concessions from every party engaged in those conversations." He mentions the danger of creating a peace and Putin building his strength again to attack four or five years later. He still supports a law he co-sponsored as a senator that says the US cannot withdraw from NATO without approval from congress. For context, here is his full answer on both issues.

Trump’s former national security advisor says that Trump wants the war to end under any circumstance, which is bad news for Ukraine. He says that cease-fire lines have an increasing chance of becoming permanent borders the longer negotiations drag on, and any permanent peace would be considered temporary by Russia.

In an intra-party dispute, Republican Mike Turner, a strong supporter of Ukraine, was removed as the chair of the House Select Committee on Intelligence. Last April he said that some Republicans were parroting Russian propaganda, saying, “We see directly coming from Russia attempts to mask communications that are anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia messages, some of which we even hear being uttered on the House floor.” He is being replaced by Rick Crawford, who has better relations with the MAGA right. The change had little to do with Ukraine but it is likely to impact Ukrainian policies.

India has joined China in banning Russian shadow fleet ships from entering their ports. They expect a two month grace period as they find other sources of oil and they are talking with several Mideast countries. They would also accept oil from Russia that was sold at the approved limit of $60 a barrel. Current prices are $87 per barrel.

Orban says that Ukraine is a serious economic threat to Europe and calls for the end to Russian sanctions and the restoration of ties to Russia. He is correct if Europe is defined as Hungary and Slovakia.

The sanctions against Russia are critical to reducing their economic and military power and the EU renews them every six months. They must do so unanimously. Hungary has not decided whether it will support sanctions at this time and is reserving their decision until the new US administration declares its view on Russian sanctions. Orban visited with Trump last March and July and said that a Trump presidency was the only serious chance for the end of the war in Ukraine.

Boris Johnson has opinions.

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Equipment

The Russians are establishing domestic production of fiber optic cables. Both sides are increasingly using fiber optic cables because it cannot be jammed with electronic warfare. The weight of the reels carrying the cables reduces the range and/or payload of the drone, and the cable will snap on occasion, but far more drones were being lost due to jamming. For that reason, cable drones are being used for an increasing amount of the workload.

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(…to be concluded in the Part 3…)