Don's Weekly, 2 October 2023: Part 3

Miscellaneous

Multiple representatives of the government in London began talking about deploying British trainers into Ukraine and for British ships to aid grain shipments…

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1708224447981703289

In Kursk, Ukrainian forces from the SBU conducted a strike targeting a Russian Nebo-U (Tall Rack) long range radar, damaging the main antenna array and control station with drone dropped munitions. 52.105902, 35.058171...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1708190887279210609

After drone attacks, tires were placed on some Russian aircraft at their airbases. Now they’re painting decoys on the ground…complete with tires on top of the painted planes…https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/tu-95-decoys-are-being-painted-on-russian-air-bases-apron

The 1129th Anti-Aircraft Missle Regiment downs a Russian cruise missile somewhere near Kyiv…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1706219091852177604

Ukrainian vehicles parked on a train 61 km southwest of Bakhmut are hit while being observed by a drone…

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1706153927941460207

A Ukrainian S-300 launch, results unknown…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1706804584633552917

Both Russians and Ukrainians are trying to survive the increasing effectiveness of each other’s drones…

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1707054692746801250

Corruption in Russia is massive. You can’t escape it, even if you’re fighting on the front line…

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1706289537851224368

When no one is allowed to touch you, you can be really tough…

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1707328188697739367

A Russian IL-76 crashed in Mali...

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1707081436392570991

Russia is building a new railway line to Mariupol. If unhindered by combat, it should be completed in six months…

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1707024409821647206

The best way not to get hit by Russian drones is to not be seen by Russian drones. Ukrainian high school students make camouflage nets…

https://twitter.com/Oksii33/status/1707024068921237901

She hid three wounded Ukrainians in her basement until liberation...

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1706689051221172391

A Ukrainian soldier reflects on the war…https://www.facebook.com/LitvinovaLesya/posts/pfbid0ULdex25VZTsYd4idZ5Z3qmCFJfvZWS7suXf6eqZy1HrtsSjQUcKdVeqU9HRVWX1vl

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US Aid to Ukraine

At the last minute, the US government avoided a shutdown with a bill that will fund the government until mid-November. That bill stripped out the aid to Ukraine. There is no need to panic. There is strong support for aid to Ukraine in the senate and two days ago the house voted 311 to 117 for aid to Ukraine. The aid to Ukraine will be restored. If you’re thinking this is a crazy way to do business, you’d be right, but that’s the world we live in now. If you want a more detailed explanation of events, you can find it here: https://substack.com/inbox/post/137557521

Diplomacy

Kazakhstan is part of the CSTO alliance led by Russia. Kazakhstan said they will also support sanctions against Russia:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1707406762444243342

Ukraine, Poland and Latvia will boycott any football/soccer championship that includes Russian athletes:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1707030400889925922

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Elsewhere…

Mind that the War in Ukraine is ‘just’ one major conflict currently keeping the international community busy. A number of wars - or at least ‘low-intensity conflicts’ - are raging elsewhere. Covering all of them would be too much for our capacities. Thus, lets ‘take a brief look’ at some of most imporant developments in Europe. For example:

Azerbaijan-Armenia

Since the collapse of the Armenian-controlled enclave inside Azerbaijan, on 19-20 September 2023, Azerbaijanis have opened the road from Stepanakert to Armenia (so-called ‘Lachin Corridor’) after months of blockade, have provided electricity and humanitarian aid, but: according to official Yerevan, over 85,000 of Nagorno-Karabakh’s 145,000 inhabitants fled and most of them believe they won’t return.

The Armenian president is calling it ethnic cleansing, while one of Armenians fleeing explained the reasons as follows:

'We, the people of Artsakh, need a humanitarian corridor to leave. We are not ready to live with a country which starved us, then killed us. We need a corridor'.

And so: Armenia is sending buses to Stepanakert to evacuate those without any transportation means on hand. A double-car column from Karabakh to Armenia is some 100km long, and the Armeia's CivilNet is reporting that 120,000 out of some 145,000 Armenians are intending to flee.

Azerbaijan’s dictator Aliyev has repeated his pledge to ensure the rights of Armenian population; has promised to decide the religious, educational, cultural, municipal rights of Karabakh Armenians in accordance with international conventions; has opened a website where Armenians that fled can register so they can also return....Azerbaijan has meanwhile connected the region to its own grid, so it can provide electricity. It is letting Armenian ambulance cars and helicopters to enter its territory and pick up victims of a gas explosion of a Russian-provided gas warehouse, in which over 120 were killed and 200 wounded; it's sending own ambulances and providing humanitarian aid and fuel.... even Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan has appeared on the TV (back on the 25th) to state that the 'information' about 'mass casualties among Armenian population' are fake news, that Azerbaijani troops did not enter Stepanakert, and there is no threat for the Armenian population. (Yes, Azerbaijani police has entered the city - it's called Khankendi in Azeri - and is regularly patrolling it).

Problem: in the past, Azerbaijanis in Armenia and Armenians in Azerbaijan have suffered pogroms and thus there is a lots of reason for concern.

Moreover, the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh does not resolve all the issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There remains the question of demarcation of the mutual border, and that of the Nakhichivan enclave: a part of Azerbaijan between southern Armenia and Iran. In 1991, Turkey threatened to attack Armenia if this would enter Nakhchivan. During negotiations of the last two years, Azerbaijan demanded a land corridor through Armenia, in exchange for a land corridor to Karabakh. Armenia turned down all related proposals:

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90655

Kosovo-Serbia

Kosovo is recognized as an independent nation by 102 of 193 the UN members. After three Serbian gunmen stormed a mosque resulting in their deaths and that of a Kosovo policeman, Serbian military forces are moving towards the Kosovo border…

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1707861195338780848

A British Battalion is being moved from Cypurus to Kosovo…

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1708147983802380426

Slovakia

Robert Fico is the former, and possible future, prime minister of Slovakia. He tells the poor that he is their savior while working with the oligarchs that contributed to their poverty. A journalist investigating his ties to the Italian mafia was alongside his girlfriend, and the largest protests since the Velvet revolution led to his resignation. He was charged last year with abusing power and forming a criminal organization, but Slovakia’s parliament voted against lifting his immunity.

He is pro-Russian and anti-US, saying (essentially) that war always comes from the West and peace comes from the East. He criticized the annexation of Crimea but said the 2014 sanctions were senseless and Ukraine’s recapture of Crimea would not solve the Russian-Ukrainian war. If he becomes prime minister he swore that Slovakia won’t send one more bullet to Ukraine. Since his party had the largest number of votes, he will get the first chance to establish a coalition government. Talking to a Slovakian friend, he says that Slovakia already sent all the equipment they could and the ammunition being produced are based on contracts with Slovakian companies, not the Slovakian government, so little should change despite Fico’s campaign promise…https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/29/who-is-robert-fico-slovakia-elections/

OPEC/Oil-Price

An April report said OPEC continues to cut production, oil prices rise, including Russian oil. India is buying 70% of Russia’s exports while China is buying 20%, both above the oil cap prices set to limit Russia’s income. A new report says India is now paying $20 over the price cap and Turkey is now the second largest importer of Russian oil: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-And-India-Buy-Russian-Crude-Above-The-Price-Cap.html

Russian oil sold to India at 30% above Western price cap, traders say | Reuters