Don's Weekly, 2 October 2023, Part 1
Hello everybody!
Here’s the 3rd installment of Don’s Weekly: a review of most important events in this war of the last week.
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Overview
Russia suffered heavy losses south of Bakhmut but is now back to counterattacking south of the ruined town, in a forlorn attempt to re-take Klishchiivka.
In the Robotyne sector, Russian airborne troops are also suffering under the heavy fire of two Ukrainian artillery brigades. Ukraine seems to have two objectives: Destroy as many of the airborne troops as possible, the largest remaining mass of well-trained Russian troops. And they also are unleashing a huge amount of artillery fire in the hopes of reducing the Russian troops in the Robotyne sector faster than they can be reinforced. It took about three months to reduce the 58th CAA in that sector to just fragments of its former self. It’s possible that the four Russian airborne divisions are down to 50% of their strength in less than a month of fighting in around Robotyne. Russia is already considering pulling more troops from other sectors and sending them as reinforcements to Robotyne.
The Deep Battle
The war behind the front lines has been talked about a lot and occasionally illustrated. The material aspects of war range from raw materials for the factories, to production, to storage and then shipment to the front lines. This map and one in the Bakhmut section show how both sides try to interdict and destroy personnel and equipment that approach and operate behind enemy lines. Even if an attack does not destroy an enemy target, the enemy will modify his behavior to reduce the risk of future attacks, and these modifications usually degrade efficiencies.
Eastern Luhansk
All Russian attacks were repelled. The Russians knocked out four bridges over the Oskil river, over which Ukrainian supplies travel. Ukraine established pontoon bridges to replace them.
Drone technology, production, and tactics will continue to evolve. Here is a new standard…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1706067809409671547
Russia is trying to replicate their Bakhmut tactics by forming assault squads from 2,000 troops. The circumstances have changed a lot since May…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1707042163400290541
Russia hit a bridge over the Oskil river to make logistics more difficult for Ukraine. 49.527185, 37.693334…
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1707179815525069159
Over the border in Belgorod, another raid is reported with few details…
https://twitter.com/legion_svoboda/status/1707440585152356443
A small Russian assault group is chased by artillery in Kreminna...
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1708218860304834980
Russia continues to counter-attack and multiple Russian units are complaining about heavy casualties in attacks that have no chance to succeed. One Russian regiment says half their personnel had been killed. The Russian commander in this sector has been replaced. Besides stopping Russian counter-attacks, Ukraine has continued its deep attacks against Russian forces while trying to advance from Andriivka.
A Russian report that one regiment lost 1200 men…
https://twitter.com/MilitaryLabb/status/1708270535543529928
Similar to WW2 barrage balloons, the Russians erected drone nets above a road in the city…
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1706217413337850279
Outside Bakhmut, a Stinger brings down a drone…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1706422688112124018
Ukrainians evacuate a wounded soldier…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1706975182512923117
A Russian air defense vehicle is destroyed by a drone…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707087310347485192
DPICM on the northern approach to Klishchiivka. 48.547408, 37.958711…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1707468759684780452
The 92nd brigade destroys a Russian BMP with a drone…
https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1707423832993083664
Ukrainian losses in the last few weeks west of Andriivka…
In the Yahidne area of Bakhmut, a BMD 4 is destroyed by a Ukrainian drone…
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1695502263022748045
Donetsk
9 miles east of the Donetsk airport a pair of self-propelled 120mm mortars are destroyed by GMLRS. 48.074031, 37.876553…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1706041679248060860
A Russian wearing a Wagner patch gives a tour showing the results of the attacks on those mortars…
https://twitter.com/Matus6x6/status/1708109967310331921
13 km west of Marinka, a Ukrainian vehicle is hit by artillery. 47.912931, 37.326666…
https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1706781397317279929
Poorly deployed Russian decoy tanks were discovered 4.5 km northeast of Marinka. While these decoys were revealed, it is likely that other decoys have been engaged by Ukraine, just a Russians have attacked Ukrainian decoys…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1706316927050584391
A Russian kamikaze tank was reportedly used to degrade a Ukrainian minefield. An ineffective tactic, if true. 47.890931, 37.507528...
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707355382606131591
130 km from the front, a Russian ammo dump exploded for hours at Krasnodon. 48.327195, 39.707187...
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1706652953975652359
Three Russian artillery pieces and a logistics center reported destroyed in the Donetsk region...
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707666543100772529
Mokri Yaly Valley
Russia is trying to attack out of Pryiutne without success. A Russian attack towards Urozhaine was destroyed. Ukraine has not reported any territorial advances.
Russian vehicles 1.5 km east of Urozhaine are disabled by drones during the day and destroyed by multiple attacks at night. 47.738597, 36.852713...
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707495821048971486
In the same attack…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707804466865406416
Video from the Ukrainian drones that conducted those attacks…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707723767407947906
Robotyne
When Russia was running short of troops in the Robotyne area it sent elements from four Airborne divisions: they didn’t just defend, but conducted a heavy counterattack that drove Ukraine a couple of kilometers in some places, partly because of Russian firepower and partly to consolidate their forces in the face of the Russia onslaught.
When Russia transferred the airborne troops it meant they were less of a threat elsewhere and Ukraine was able to send a second artillery brigade to the Robotyne area. Running into consolidated Ukrainian defenses and twice the artillery, attacking Russians suffered heavy casualties. Then Ukraine went back on the offensive and with strong artillery support started pushing the Russian back again. Ukraine also added elements from three new brigades to the battle. In addition to trying to gain more territory, Ukraine is trying to destroy as much of the Russian airborne forces as they can before reinforcements arrive to help them out.
Russian artillery shelling western edge of Robotyne. 47.44461, 35.82276..
https://twitter.com/klinger66/status/1705936226186903925
A Ukrainian BMP is destroyed on the western end of Verbove. 47.441190, 35.954171..
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1706035601965748699
Five Russian BMPs are hit by DPICM…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1708551444062744691
Ukrainians near Verbove defending a Russian position they captured from a counter-attack…
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1706259714479145226
With modern-day ATGMs, survival really is impacted by the generation of the armored vehicle you occupy. A Marder protects its occupants. It has a good chance of being recovered and repaired unless Russia did more damage with ATGMs, drones or artillery. 47.447927 35.899709…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1706453246796021928
Supplies consist of food and water, not just ammo. If you only get a liter of water a day it’s an indication of a restricted supply line..
https://twitter.com/EdwinGeerling/status/1705786574888165510
A Bradley from the 47th brigade withdraws after dropping off reinforcements. A Leopard provides fire support on the front line in daylight. Using tanks in support of assaults was occasionally seen in the Bakhmut area but was rare in the Robotyne sector until the last couple of weeks. It’s possible this means there are fewer ATGMs in the area. Artillery and drones are always present, of course...
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707767075366686964
A Ukrainian BTR-3 30mm autocannon in action…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1706178104903737417
Ukraine does a much better job at recovering friendly and enemy vehicles than Russia. Recovered vehicles can be repaired, which sustains combat power…
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1706667225292366335
A Shark drone spotting for a GMLRS strike on infantry about 16 km southwest of Tokmak. 47.153565, 35.515173…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707831854760431657
Near Kamianske. If you’re dodging indirect fire you might be distracted…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1706489289989619762
A report of a possible shootdown of a Russian Su-35 by their own forces…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707679055124779062
(to be continued….)
Thank you and Don for the update.
Good update. I like that it is easier to follow the text (i skip all the videoes, but I guess others look at them) and is less heavy with details than Toms. But then reading Toms updates the details are always fascinating. So I want a detailed easy to follow update.. probably good for me there are two of you.