Don's Weekly, 19 February 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!
While I’m still busy collecting necessary information to prepare a ‘more in-depth analysis’ of events surrounding the fall of Avidiivka, Don was so kind to ready his next Weekly summary. And because a lot is going on (or at least: we’ve been said a lot is going on), let me get straight to the story.

Western Luhansk

Essentially, yes, there is a - relatively - big concentration of Russian forces in this area. Or there used to be, one or more weeks ago. However, this was meanwhile decreased in size, through withdrawal of the 90th Tank Division and the 2nd Motor Rifle Division. Both were sent to what the Keystone Cops appear to consider ‘more promising’ battlefields: Bakhmut and Avidiivka. Of course, the Russians do continue with ‘probing’ attacks, even making some advances (usually limited to 50-100 metres), but: contrary to what seems to have been expected by much of Ukraine and lots of Western observers there is no major Russian offensive in this area (yet?). Considering vivid Ukrainian activity related to ‘interdiction’, this might remain that way, too. Few examples:

Near Kreminna, 7 tanks, 2 T-90's, 2 IFV's and a TOS-1A were destroyed behind Russian front lines…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758607613053276416

A Russian tank west of Kreminna is destroyed by the 60th Brigade…

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1758122848424431950

7 km east of Synkivka, the 14th Brigade destroys two Russian howitzers…https://twitter.com/defenceu?lang=en

Drones hunt Russian infantry near Tabaivka…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1758131324735344687

The Russia assault towards Tabaivka was a local event and wasn’t part of a general offensive…

https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/1757451291419189309

Another assault on Synkivka is repulsed by drone-dropped anti-tank mines, mortars and artillery…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1756982462213677069

The remnants of an assault near Kupiansk…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1758096709689692262

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Bakhmut

A Ukrainian 155mm Krab uses shells produced in India to destroy a BMD…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1755936879420096792

***

Marinka

A Czech volunteer described his experiences in Marinka before it fell. He was there for four months but fought alongside soldiers that were there since Russia openly attacked. Vehicles couldn’t get close to the front lines without getting hit so they had to walk five kilometers carrying 40 kgs of ammo, food, water and other supplies that were supposed to last three days. All the buildings were destroyed and it wasn’t easy walking in the rubble while carrying all that weight. They had to be careful of mines: anti-personnel mines might detonate with 5 to 13 kgs (12 to 30 lbs.) of pressure, anti-tank mines can detonate with 136-181 kgs (300-400 lbs.).

Mind: with the added weight of supplies, a soldier could detonate an AT mine, especially running.

Units were rotated to the front every three days so the front line troops can move to the rear to rest and recover. Rotation was the most dangerous time for a unit because this was when the Russians usually attacked. It took a little bit of time for the new unit to get acclimatized to the battlefield even if deployed to the exact same spot like before. Small things can change:

• rubble may be shifted by an artillery shell;

• enemy positions might have changed slightly;

• angles and fields of view are so important when the enemy is only 30 meters away.

Just the slightest advantage can determine if an assault might succeed or fail, and thus whenever Ukraine conducted a rotation, Russia was likely to launch an assault before the new troops can settle in. Still, the majority of assaults failed.

The Russians didn’t make any progress until the summer of 2022, and by December of that year they had taken 90% of the town, before Ukraine stopped them from making any more progress for a year. It wasn’t until December of 2023 before Russia took those last remaining streets. Thus, statistically, the Russian advance averaged about nine (9) meters a day.

Last autumn, when it was quiet on the battlefield, he could hear the artillery around Avdiivka 25 km away. At night, he could see the glow of Donetsk 20 km away, fully lit and unthreatened by Ukrainian artillery. (The only attacks there have been against specific buildings housing occupation authorities). But in Marinka, there was not a single building that was not destroyed.

The wall to the left was another friendly position. The rusted structure to the right was directly in front of an enemy position, which wsa about 30 meters away.

A look at one of the ‘better preserved’ buildings. It was best to observe the battlefield through a periscope: this was often shot at, but harder to hit - and if it was hit, at least no troops were wounded (or worse).

So much of warfare is about angles. When the enemy position is a thousand meters away, almost all of the threat is in front of you. When the enemy position is 30 meters away, the threat is not just in front of you, but almost 90 degrees to your left and right. Looking at the enemy in one direction can expose you to fire from another direction.

Views of Marinka along Friendship Avenue before the war…https://www.google.com/maps/@47.9416719,37.5036382,3a,75y,116.85h,84.83t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sy5_QTPtLDEB9aIN1TPp7rQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?entry=ttu

(…to be continued…)