Don's Weekly, 19 August 2024: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(….continued from Part 2…)

***

Things appeared to be fairly quiet around Krasnohorivka. An attack on Heorhiivka was repulsed with heavy losses.

The Russian wave assaults slowly erode Ukrainian defenses over the weeks and months and the 79th Brigade defending Kostiantynivka continues to make the Russians pay a steep price. 11 vehicles are destroyed but the Russians finally get a foothold in Kostiantynivka.

The only thing left of this house in Paraskoviivka is the crack the leads to what’s left of the basement. The Russians say Ukrainians were in that basement when they dropped a satchel charge that collapsed the basement.

The Russians finally cut the road between Vuhledar and Kostiantynivka, cutting off a squad of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade in the process, too. Sadly, we have not received any update on the status of the unit in question ever since.

***

Zaporizhzhia

Andrew Perpetua reports that throughout Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine is conducting small-scale assaults on vulnerable Russian trenches. The Russians are calling it a reconnaissance-in-force but are worried that it may lead to some larger attacks. There are no videos to support the Russian claims.

Indeed, for much of this week, several of Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists were announcing a ‘big concentration of Ukrainian armour’ (accompanied by lots of fuel trucks) in the Orikhiv area: some went as far as to ‘warn’ about another Ukrainian counteroffensive…. at least for late August or sometimes in September.

***

Kherson

Since the start of the Kursk offensive, Russians in the Kherson sector have increased their attacks on civilians. Sometimes an attack starts with an artillery shell or barrage and when the emergency vehicles arrive, the Russian drones arrive to attack them. At other times, drones just circle the city and villages searching for civilians to hit. In Kherson, they call it a human safari.

A video of a pedestrian walking away from a nearby impact of an artillery shell in Kherson.

In July, the civilian casualties doubled in the region. On just the single day of August 6, a drone killed one and wounded 12 civilians. Another drone flew into the apartment in a nine-story building. Another dropped explosives on a group of old ladies sitting on a bench. Another attacked a store and wounded a man.

Settlements along the Dnipro river are under Mandatory Evacuation. Mandatory is defined as voluntary refusals are allowed with a formal process and legal briefings. The next level would be Forced Evacuation, in which refusal is not allowed.

***

Russia

During the night from 13 to 14 August, Russia said it shot down 110-117 drones in one night, while explosions were reported at the Savasleyka, Borisoglebsk, and Voronezh's Baltimore air bases. Initial satellite images indicate minor damage at Savasleyka air base after a drone attack and an impact on the flight line near an Il-76 transport plane. Besides another ammo depot, Kinzhal-toothing MiG-31Ks are based there.

Tartarigami points out that the average age of the Russian soldier being killed is 38 and the trend towards older soldiers is rising from 30 years old in 2022. The average age of the US soldier killed in Vietnam was 23. Older soldiers do not perform as well as infantry and the trend suggests it is increasingly difficult for Russia to find recruits for their army using current methods. Ukraine has its own personnel issues with 43 being the average age of its soldiers.

Ukraine says that Russia has 600,000 killed and wounded, a figure close to what the UK has been posting recently. Of those casualties, over 61,000 have been confirmed as killed through documentation. Analysis places the range of total deaths between 107,140 and 134,400.

Men are being rounded up in Russia and sent to Kursk without training or documentation. If they die, they never existed. Also, several thousand men are being moved from Kaliningrad to Kursk. They’ve already removed 80% of their troops from Norway’s border, Finland’s border, and the Kuril Islands in the Pacific.

***

Ukraine

Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Force lost a pilot and a MiG-29 last week. An Su-27 was also lost on the ground after a missile attack.

***

Diplomacy

Germany issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diver accused of being involved in the Nordstream pipeline explosion. The Polish prime minister had his own thoughts: “To all the initiators and patrons of Nord Stream 1 and 2. The only thing you should do today about it is apologize and keep quiet.”

Russia and Ukraine were supposed to meet in Qatar to discuss halting attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure. Ukrainians gave it a 20% chance or left of succeeding if they were held, but they were postponed after the Kursk offensive.

CNN sent a reporter into Kursk. Russia said he entered the country without authorization.

***

Equipment

Like the CAESAR, the PzH2000 has a longer artillery barrel than the Paladin and because of that it has a longer range. What sets the PzH2000 apart, though, is that the interior of the barrel is chromium-plated to harden and reduce friction, both of which extends the life of the barrel because of reduced wear. In addition, the rifling of the barrels, which suffers the greatest impact of friction, are laser hardened. The high temperature created is quickly cooled when the heat disperses into the surrounding cool barrel. The quick transition between heat and cool is what hardens the metal, and the higher the carbon content of the barrel, the more effective it is. Rheinmetall produces about 200 barrels a year. The US is considering upgrading their Paladins with longer barrels but a 1920 law says the US must have control over production for national security reasons. This is why the M777 is produced in America even though it was developed by the UK.

(…to be continued…)