Don's Weekly, 18 September 2023, Part 2
Kherson
Due to constant Russian artillery fire and glide bombs (up to 75 attacks a day), Ukrainians were advised to evacuate communities near the river, back in August. Evacuation is now mandatory for children. In this report from six months ago, Kherson’s mayor was asked if she preferred if all civilians left the city, and she replied that “it will be better for them, I think”:
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1702284784561529161
Ukraine says a Russian glide bomb intended for the northern bank landed on occupied Nova Kakhovka, damaging four houses, injuring 12 and killing one person. 46.7499274, 33.3586087
https://twitter.com/Activatica/status/1702759137270984879
A Russia T-90 destroyed by Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1701934527336038472
Ukraine says six Russian boats were destroyed trying to recapture small islands in the Dnieper River.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1701177018363113667
A Russian soldier wants to know why they don’t use artillery before sending the boats to assault the islands.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1701243484332499355
Back in August, Russian civilians revealed the location of an S-400 air defense system. This was followed by drone attacks to blind the radars and Neptune missile attacks to destroy other components. 45.180317, 33.232232
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1702289255035228288
An (Ukrainian) S-300 vs. a Russian cruise missile near Odesa. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2225745004297426&ref=sharing
Not all the incoming Russian missiles and drones were successfully intercepted. This is the aftermath in Odesa.
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1703324157621023177
The Black Sea/Crimea
Situational awareness is key in any conflict at any time in history. Ukraine has the initiative in gaining information and denying it to the Russians and this is very much in evidence in the Black Sea. Under pressure, Russia withdrew from its observation post at Snake island in June of last year. Identifying gaps in Russian observational coverage enabled naval drone attacks as far as Novorossiysk. Attacks on the edges of Russian air defenses in Kherson and Crimea eliminated radars and revealed new edges of air defenses that could be attacked. The raid in rubber boats destroyed more radars and air defenses. The raids on the undefended oil rigs enabled Ukraine to capture the Russian electrical sensors but to gain technical knowledge on Russian capabilities and methods.
Russia’s multi-layered air defenses is being peeled back layer by layer. Each overlapping layer of radars, air defense missiles, electronic warfare locating equipment and electronic jamming equipment supported the other. When one layer is lost, the others become more vulnerable. The defenses can be rearranged and reinforced, but with Ukraine’s attacks on Moscow, the air bases and factories in Russia, air defense assets had to be diverted to defend the motherland. While the defenses on land can be modified, the loss of Snake island and the oil rigs as sensor platforms is likely permanent.
At some point, the layers were thin enough that Ukraine believed that an attack on Sevastopol had a good chance of success. For a detailed discussion on how that might be accomplished, I refer you to Tom Cooper’s recent post on the topic:
A recent attack in Crimea with details: https://www.facebook.com/frank.obenaus.3/posts/pfbid0SGPJ5tEv9qcZB5jzd3yQdwYz5LDesUe4nLRCm6GHL2oZWWJ8meQGBR6GEzdmmnDsl
Boyko Towers
Map of the rig locations: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 0058436023
A 13 minute video that describes how Ukraine occupied the towers and disabled the Russian surveillance equipment on it. In addition to radars and other gear, the Russians placed fuel and rockets to support helicopter operations from the rig. The Ukrainian special forces left and returned several times to transport the Russian equipment and ammo. On one trip, they damaged a Russian aircraft that was attacking them. On another, a soldier fell out during a sharp turn to avoid another attack and the boats had to keep moving to stay alive. A drone later spotted the soldier in the sea and Ukrainians were able to retrieve him 14 hours later.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1701300669657833734
A history of the towers:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21513
An interview with the commander of the assault on the rigs:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1702662588671185015
Ukraine started planning for the attack on the amphibious assault ship and submarine when they learned they were in dry dock. Attacks on Russian air defenses were already underway. The weapon that attacked them is unknown and the Russians say 2 were killed and 26 wounded. A thread:
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1701788035719868874?t=ExixXj3wJdOAglwfFtvmYA&s=19
The assault ship:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1702375690249650609
Damage to the drydock would be a problem for the maintainance of the Russian navy. One of many, to be sure.
https://twitter.com/GrangerE04117/status/1701815310918262861
Tartarigami notes water canon and a green tarp on the Russian sub that is likely concealing some piece of information:
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1702910717861441913
Four hoses were still being used on the amphibious assault ship two days after the attack:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1702755014081495260
British intelligence points out that the sub was capable of launching cruise missiles at Ukraine. Russia has three subs left that can launch missiles. The report also points out that it will take some time to remove the two ships from dry dock, which is degrading Russia’s ability to conduct maintenance on its fleet. It seems to me that even if Russia moves its diminishing air defenses to protect this vital asset of theirs it will always be vulnerable to future attacks.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1702557381501026323
Battle Damage Assessment of an attack on the S-400 site in Yevpatoriya:
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1702359573141557271
Geolocation:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1702217513050779876
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1702185845439037746
Video:
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1702171863311430106
What was destroyed:
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1702245614283899240
Ukrainian naval drones intercepted a Russian convoy of two merchant ships and two patrol boats. One of the merchant ships was reportedly carrying weapons from Syria (through the Turkish straights). One patrol boat was reported damaged with 6 KIA and 12 wounded. Another source said that the crew asked for an evacuation of the wounded and there was one dead and five wounded. The extent of the damage to the boat wasn’t reported. This particular drone was destroyed before it hit the patrol boat, which is firing on a different target with its main gun.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1702373661162840290
According to this report, intercepted radio communications asked for the evacuation of wounded from one of the patrol ships, and that there was one dead and five wounded:
A single-source report from Reuters says that the right rear of the “Samum” had significant damage:
Part of the Kerch bridge was opened to traffic. Repairs are scheduled to be completed November 1st:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1702322351298551993
Russia is transporting scores of artillery pieces from Syria to Russia…through the Turkish straights.
https://twitter.com/QalaatM/status/1702994131587396035
There is debate if using civilian ships violates the Montreux Convention: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/russia-exploiting-gap-montreux-convention
Equipment
Korea was partitioned at the end of WW2 with the Soviets occupying the north and the US occupying the South. By 1950, the Soviets provided North Korea its arms and ammunition while the US provided South Korea with the same. Over 70 years later, the circumstances have changed and the Soviet Union is seeking ammo from North Korea, which has 100 factories working on arms and ammunition, each with 10,000 workers. Meanwhile, South Korea has been providing the US with 155mm shells so the US can send more of its US-produced shells to Ukraine.
Ukraine says North Korea has been sending ammo to Russia for over six weeks: https://gur.gov.ua/content/ahresor-uzhe-pivtora-misiatsia-otrymuie-snariady-z-pivnichnoi-korei-kyrylo-budanov.html
The US is producing 28,000 shells calibre 155mm a month. In the spring, it will be producing about 60,000, and in 2025 it will produce 100,000 shells per month.
https://twitter.com/cameron19460429/status/1702717825880596983
Russian missile production is increasing, too: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20230913
A November 2022 article says the Russian acquisition system does not support research and innovation. It can produce an estimated 250 new tanks and 600 old tanks that are modernized a year. The factories that could produce the hard steel needed for barrels of high-pressure guns, such as artillery, were shut down. The sanctions make it difficult to build missiles at the rate they are used. Ukraine built the engines for helicopters and the owner of that factory was arrested for supplying engines and spare parts for Russia. The engines for drones aren’t produced in Russia, who must rely on China and Iran:
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/1 ... barrels-en
An article from July talks about Russia’s high consumption of artillery shells, the belief that North Korean ammo is likely substandard and that Russian production of replacement artillery barrels is very low:
When the US first approached South Korea for its 155mm shells, they didn’t want any shells with their markings on them being used in Ukraine for fear of upsetting their relationship with Russia. So they sent ammo to the US, which the US used for training and reserves, and the US sent more of its ammo to Ukraine. In a change of policy, South Korea now considers the US the end user of its 155mm shells and says the US can do what they want with them.
In exchange for its ammo, North Korea wants fuel, food, air defense systems and technology for its missile program. Since Russia has stripped its borders of air defense systems to replace losses and counter the threat of Ukrainian drones and missiles, it is unlikely that North Korea will receive any air defense systems:
One M777 gun changed its barrel four times already after firing a total of 6000 rounds. It was recommended that barrels should be changed after 2500 rounds, but the crew noticed that their accuracy was effected before the recommended amount so they changed it after an average of 1500 rounds were fired. This suggests that there isn’t a shortage of barrels for this particular weapon.
While there are certain standards among NATO nations, such as 155mm being the standard artillery caliber, there are small differences in the shells they produce so they are optimized for performance in the artillery that each nation produces. This can lead to performance issues that Ukrainian gun crews must take into account if, for instance, they are using a French or American 155mm shell in a US/UK-produced M777. What I find interesting is that they removed the module on the M777 that takes into account the gun’s latitude, longitude, altitude, the earth’s rotation, relative gravity and other factors when aiming the gun and providing data for the Excalibur artillery round. It’s possible that the precision of the module actually provided less accurate data when non-standard rounds were used but that is speculation on my part.
It also mentioned some short-term issues that were eventually resolved:
In the first ten months of the war, the U.S. had depleted five years’ worth of Javelin production, Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes said in December. Around that time, Javelin production had been held up by production problems experienced by the subcontractor that manufactures the rocket motors for each missile. The new contract is expected to boost the production of Javelin-fired missiles to 3,960 annually. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/army-to-boost-javelin-production-with-7-billion-contract/#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20ten%20months,rocket%20motors%20for%20each%20missile.
The US courts ruled that Lockheed's attempt to buy Aerojet would violate anti-monopoly laws. Aerojet's Chairman of the Board and CEO are feuding. They're trying to find a new buyer and blame their own supply chain providers for their issues. https://www.defenseone.com/business/2022/12/aerojet-rocketdyne-struggling-deliver-rocket-motors-raytheon-ceo-says/380562/
Germany will provide 40 more Marder infantry fighting vehicles:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1701142304604520687
The discussion about Swedish Gripen fighters:
A video of a field hospital that Germany is sending to Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1701561486311559469
The better Ukrainian decoys work, the faster they are destroyed. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/11/world/ukraine-russia-decoy-weapons-intl/index.html
A Ukrainian radar decoy before:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1702401366138687526
And after:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1702401371184529551
Ukraine has a large 3D printer for spare parts.
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1702724283754000634
A Ukrainian mine laying drone test.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1702384655779987676
A sapper said sometimes it takes a day to demine a 50 x 50 meter area. This drone is for AP mines.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1702355038201348564
I think it needed some clarification for the story about the helicopter engines. The author means JSC Motor Sich and their helicopter engine TV3-117 ( TB3-117 in ukrainian). It's the good engine with high flying characteristics. But Russia has a copy of TV3-117 it's VK-2500. As usual in this world the copy becomes worse than original item, but still the engine for modern helicopters. TV3-117 or VK-2500 use in a lot of different helicopters, from Mi-17 to Ka-52. So Russia can provide VK-2500 for all helicopters as needed.
Russia doesn't set up production of D-136 (Д- 136) and it's a big problem for them. This engine is for a big cargo helicopter Mi-26. Ex owner of Motor Sich has sold some D-136 to Russia to bypass national sanctions.
Woah! Two updates almost in a minute. Thanks Don and Tom for the good work!