Don's Weekly, 18 November 2024: Part 2

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 1…)

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Russia

30 Russian airlines representing 26% of the domestic passenger traffic may go bankrupt next year.

A Russian chef that was critical of Putin was found dead in Belgrade. Serbian authorities say there were no suspicious circumstances and are awaiting the results of an autopsy and toxicology report.

In 2023, a Russian film company donated 28 T-55 tanks, 8 PT-76 tanks, 6 BMPs and 8 tractors used as film props to the Russian Armed Forces.

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Ukraine

The intensity of the fighting inside Ukraine can be measured by the number of engagements through the first 13 days of November. Kurakhove leads with 690 engagements, followed by Pokrovsk (435) and Lyman (163).

2,000 Ukrainian soldiers just completed training in France. They will be part of the 4,500-strong 155th Mechanised ‘Anna of Kyiv’ Brigade. Anna was the daughter of the Grand Prince of Kyiv and became Queen of France after marrying King Henry I in 1051. The brigade will have 18 AMX-10 light tanks, 18 Caesar self-propelled howitzers, 128 armored personnel carriers, plus anti-tank and anti-air missile systems. France is scheduled to train another Ukrainian brigade.

Five Russian agents were arrested before or after their acts of sabotage. Plans to burn a helicopter were prevented by the address but a military jeep and an electrical substation in Cherkasy were set on fire.

In the northern oblast of Chernihiv, two three-man Russian teams infiltrated to plant the Russian flags at two locations 1500 meters and 2500 meters from the border.

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Diplomacy

Given the past and potential US aid to Ukraine, it is important to understand Trump’s policy towards Ukraine. This is a difficult task due to Trump’s behavior, but the people he chooses to work for him provide some indications.

Background checks are part of the vetting and nomination process to determine that a candidate is not a national security risk, but many candidates are not undergoing that process. In his first term, Trump ordered security clearances given to 25 people that were initially denied due to possible security concerns. He cannot give those orders again until he enters office. This action would increase the chances of information being leaked to foreign adversaries (and allies) and increase the chances of foreign influence on American policy.

Tulsi Gabbard will be the Director of National Intelligence. She’s said that Syria’s Assad is not the enemy of the US, that Turkey’s Erdogan is an Islamist megalomanic has Al-Qaeda as a partner and is not a friend of the US. While making no mention of North Korea and China, she expresses concern on December 7th about Japan increasing its military strength. She also said that Ukraine should be neutral without a military alliance. She also talked about 25+ US-funded biolabs in Ukraine before saying she was misunderstood. With Gabbard at the DNI, it is likely that the US five eyes partners (UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) will limit intelligence sharing with the US.

A Fox news host, Pete Hegseth, was picked to be Secretary of Defense. He is a far-right Christian and believes that Zionism and Americanism are the front lines for Western civilization and freedom, and Trump said his pick is a true believer in America First. Hegseth doesn’t believe women should be in combat roles and he plans to purge the military of woke officials. He wants to be able to bomb Iranian cultural sites, if necessary, and spoke in favor of US military personnel that were convicted of war crimes.

Elise Stefanik will be the ambassador to the UN. She had previously supported Ukraine’s membership in NATO but had declined to restate that position. Last April she voted against a $60 billion aid package to Ukraine.

John Ratcliffe will be the new CIA director. During Trump’s first term he was nominated to be the Director of National Intelligence. After congressional resistance, he withdrew from the process after five days, only to be renominated six months later and confirmed three months after that. As DNI, he worked with the head of the CIA to convince Trump not to declassify information that would reveal the sources and methods used to gain that information. He served as the DNI for eight months. Members of the intelligence community said that based on the other candidates that were believed to be considered, his nomination was as good as it was going to get and it could have been a lot worse. He opposes China and worked closely with Bill Browder, who tried to fight Russian corruption with the Magnitsky Act. The biggest concern in the intelligence community is whether he would stand up to Trump or not when national security was on the line.

Marco Rubio has been selected as Secretary of State. He’s been in the senate since 2010 and served on the Intelligence and Foreign Relations committee. He’s worked on bipartisan deals with Democrats in the past and has shown that he places national security above politics. He has warned that China, Iran, North Korea and Russia are increasingly partnering against the United States. He is one of the more qualified and reasonable picks of Trump’s cabinet.

Mike Waltz was chosen for National Security Advisor, a position that isn’t confirmed by the Senate. A three term congressman, he sat on a subcommittee on Armed Services readiness as well as the Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees. He is strongly critical of China and complained about America’s ‘woke’ military. He opposes sending large amounts of aid to Ukraine and demands that Europe do more, but also supports a peace that strengthens Ukraine’s ties to the west and isolates Putin. He recently talked about improving enforcement of the energy sanctions as a means of forcing Russia into peace talks.

These are nominations but they need to be confirmed by the Senate. With the Senate controlled by the Republicans that shouldn’t be much of a problem for these nominations, but Trump wants Congress to go into recess so he can appoint them without a confirmation hearing, using the procedure of recess appointments. Recess appointments have been done hundreds of times before, but not with top cabinet positions. If the Senate, led by a non-MAGA Republican, insists on holding hearings then the House can move to go into recess. If the Senate disagrees, then the president can force both them to go into recess, just as long as the House wants to go into recess. So it’s very likely these individuals will get the jobs they’ve been offered and the checks and balances on Trump are diminished.

There are MAGA Republicans that oppose aid to Ukraine and there are traditional Republicans that fully support a Ukrainian victory. Mitch McConnell was a traditional Republican but he stepped down and the Republican leader in the senate. There was a question whether the Senate Republicans would elect a Trump loyalist or a Reagan-style Republican that believed in strong international alliances. The Senate used a secret ballot, which may save many from being attacked in their party primaries, and elected a traditional Republican, John Thune. Another traditional Republican had run, and in the first ballot Thune led with 25 votes, while the other traditional Republican had 15 votes and the candidate Trump preferred received 13 votes. In the second vote Thune won 29 to 24. It is unclear if the non-MAGA Senate leadership will be an effective check on Trump. A transition team member says Trump wants to bend Republican senators to his will “until they snap in half.”

Musk is supposed to focus on cuts on federal spending but he took part in a phone conversation with Zelensky and met with Iran’s ambassador, suggesting he might have continuing input on foreign policy. Musk had private conversations with Putin in the past and tweeted Kremlin talking points, and Starlink is used by both Ukraine and Russia. He’s called Scholz a fool, told an EU commissioner to f- his own face, and X is the largest source of misinformation. He said with the Warsaw Pact gone that NATO is no longer needed, and sons of Russian oligarchs helped fund his purchase of X. With Donald Trump Jr. sharing a video mocking Zelensky about losing his allowance, and Musk mocking Zelensky’s claims of Ukrainian independence, the lack of respect is a factor in policy decisions.

There is a draft executive order that would create a ‘warrior board’ of retired generals and noncommissioned officers that would have the power to review three- and four-star officers and recommend the removal of anyone “lacking in requisite leadership qualities.” In other words, anyone that doesn’t share Trump’s vision or who might question an illegal order. All military personnel swear an oath to the constitution, the rule of law, with a promise to protect it against all enemies, both foreign and domestic. There are always people like former three-star general Michael Flynn waiting in the wings but were suppressed by institutional norms. Creating a promotion process that favors political loyalty over competence, if only for just four years, will take at least a decade to fully reverse. And there is always the possibility, however small, that it won’t be reversed.

With all this, it still comes down to Trump’s actual decisions.

Stefan Korshak has his own views from Ukraine on this subject and other matters.

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In the last days of his presidency, Biden lifts restrictions on long-ranged US weapons.

North Korea sent 10,000 soldiers and Ukraine says they could send up to 100,000. This comes at a time when Russia is finding it difficult to recruit 25,000 men a month.

In the Georgian separatist region of Abkhazia, the Russian-backed government agreed to an investment deal that would favor Russia. Crowds stormed the parliament building after a truck rammed the fence, and the government leaders took refuge at a Russian base and said they wouldn’t resign. The government said they would withdraw the law from the ratification process and the president said he’d resign and stand for elections again, but the protesters would not leave.

Russia creates 44% of the world’s enriched uranium and 35% of America’s nuclear fuel comes from Russia. Last May, Biden signed a law banning Russian uranium imports unless they are short on fuel, but Russia just restricted sales to the US.

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Equipment

A ten minute video showing the operations of the 155 mm Krab. The chassis on this particular model is Korean, the turret is British and the electronics are Polish.

It makes little sense to rely on a political competitor for military components but China produces drone components and nitrocellulose used in explosives. After the US put sanctions on dual-use items for Russia that impacted China, China limited its exports of dual use items. It stopped selling batteries to a US military drone maker that reassured customers they would quickly find alternate sources. China dominates the market but does not have a monopoly. Two South Korean companies and a Japanese company are the next three biggest sources and the Wild Hornets source their batteries from Samsung. Atlas Dynamics is a Ukrainian company that says it produces everything, including thermal cameras.

France is sending about 10 more SCALP missiles to Ukraine. They’ll also send 600 AASM bombs before the end of the year and plan to build 1,200 more in 2025. And they will soon deliver six Mirage 2000-5F jets.

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(….to be concluded in the Part 3…)