Don's Weekly, 18 March 2024: Part 2
(…continued from Part 1…)
Avdiivka
The routine starts off with a bombardment. One night, the northern part of Tonenke was hit by TOS-1A thermobaric blasts. If the Russians can launch their drones then those make their attacks. But 70% of them can’t fly because of Ukrainian EW or because Russian drone units are close together and aren’t aware of each other. Because of that, two operators on the same frequency might receive the same signals from the same drone and the other drone would crash. With the difficulties flying drones, the Russians can’t simply bombard a Ukrainian position until it disintegrates like they did at Marinka or at the dachas north of Avdiivka.
Most of the Russians in the forward positions are packed into basements. Communication is poor between units. One unit could be told to assault in three hours, and they have to organize it with little to no time for reconnaissance or planning. Sometimes it will be a mounted assault. They’ll pack maybe a dozen or more soldiers on top of the vehicles because no one wants to be inside when it’s hit, and it’s almost guaranteed to be hit by a drone. When it is, they don’t want to be trapped if the vehicle starts to burn. If you’re on the outside, you might even be able to roll off the moving vehicle if you see a drone approaching. They don’t always see the drone when it approaches, though. When the vehicle is knocked out or destroyed, the survivors try to find cover but the Ukrainian drones continue to hunt. The drones will destroy any damaged vehicle and seek out any Russian they find next to cover. If they made it close enough to Ukrainian positions, Ukrainian infantry might finish off the last one or two Russian soldiers.
If it’s a ground assault, and a big one, then Ukrainian artillery and mortars will fire into the group to break up the movement and force the group to seek cover. If it’s a small group, or the big group was turned into a small group by the artillery, then the Ukrainian drones arrive to hunt for the survivors.
It’s not that the Russians never make any progress, they do. Last week, two M-1 tanks were knocked out by more expensive Russian drones, and the Russians moved into the southern part of Berdychi. At one point they were seen in almost all of Orlivka. They took the eastern half of Tonenke and the thin strip of woods to the north of the village. But Ukraine always counterattacks with artillery, and always the swarms of drones, and sometimes with vehicles. Then the infantry sweep up the last of the scattered Russians. The Ukrainians don’t always occupy the territory they clear. Sometimes they just empty it of Russians and then pull back to other defensive positions. Everytime the Russians build up, the Ukrainians try to knock them down so they have to start over again. Over days or a week, Russia will gain another street or a treeline, but at a cost.
This last week, in just the videos viewed by Perpetua near Avdiivka, the Russians lost 5 Desertcross 1000-3 (Chinese golf cart), 22 BMPs, 11 BTRs, 2 T-72s, 1 240mm SP mortar, 1 152mm SP howitzer, 2 MT-LBs, 2 supply vehicles, and a mine-resistant truck. After losing the M-1 tanks last week, the Ukrainians only lost a truck and an M113 that was captured after being immobilized in a bomb crater earlier.
It’s harder to gauge the personnel losses. Besides the Russian dead from their attacks, there was a second TOS-1A attack on the Ukrainian 23rd Brigade positions north of Stepove and the barrage of artillery and airstrikes hit Ukrainian positions every day.
Russia claimed Nevelske, a small village halfway between Avdiivka and Marinka was captured. It was not, but because of the claim Russian forces will continue to assault until it is captured to compensate for their lie…
https://twitter.com/Deepstate_UA/status/1767653939107823995
North of Stepove, the 23rd Brigade hunts Russians in the trenches…
https://twitter.com/Deepstate_UA/status/1769121704293380175
Four Russian BTRs began an assault along the road from Stepove to Berdychi. One was destroyed just outside the village. Two more were destroyed a kilometer later along the southern edge of the village. The last one traveled for one more kilometer to the river’s edge where it was destroyed by a Bradley. The Bradley then fired on the infantry until they were destroyed. 35 Russians were killed and documents indicated a mobilization date of March 5, 2024…
https://twitter.com/Deepstate_UA/status/1768265518232838529
A view from inside the Bradley…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1768561933127455123
Several Russian vehicles are destroyed by drones from the 47th Brigade…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767136727884349862
The 53rd Brigade makes Russian vehicles run a gauntlet to reach Tonenke. Two of these strikes are on the northern road of the village…
https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1769109313786704378
When a Russian assault is broken up, drones pick off the survivors…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768729588081836332
A Russian BTR drove into a bomb crater and was immobilized. A drone finished it off…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768223300377825644
Two soldiers from the 47th Brigade defend against seven attacking Russians two weeks ago…
https://twitter.com/Deepstate_UA/status/1766169370596704396
One Russian writes of his experiences and is glad Ukraine is fighting for some villages because it gives Russia the chance to grind them down in close combat. But many Russians are sitting in the basements of bombed out houses and have no idea of adjacent unit locations. Assaults are conducted without reconnaissance and little time to prepare…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767121113904034204
A Russian comments on driving at night without lights. Frankly, I’m amazed at how many Russian and Ukrainian vehicles drive with lights on in view of enemy forces. That should not be the standard. The Russians then discuss the Ukrainian drones they found intact…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767110649320972350
The pattern continues…
https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1769283001723076629
***
Marinka
The fighting in this area wasn’t as intense as it was in previous weeks. In one attack west of Marinka Russia lost three tanks and three BMPs. A T-90 was later damaged by a drone. Heorhiivka, just west of Marinka, was hammered with airstrikes, TOS-1A blasts and MLRS strikes.
A Russian attack on Novomykhailivka from the north was stopped before it reached the village after 5 BMPs and an MT-LB were destroyed. Ukraine later lost a T-62, and the town itself was bombarded by airstrikes, artillery and TOS-1A attacks. But all positions in the area were held.
North of Pobieda, a Russian attack is stopped…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767140058690175100
A T90 tank is destroyed by multiple Ukrainian drones…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767288127461212639
A TOS-1A was destroyed…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1767172683404345588
Russian infantry were picked off at Novomykhailivka…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767195910130270514
Three Ukrainian helicopters were attacked 45 km behind the front lines…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1767887145329369398
When Russian vehicles are immobilized, drones finish them off…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768250368838848991
***
Zaporizhzhia
Russia gained a little territory near Verbove but Ukraine took a prisoner in that area…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1768977814382928133
More fighting northwest of Verbove…
https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1768379293132857728
A Russian air defense system is destroyed 25 km south of Urozhaine…
https://twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/1767774514971127851
Another Russian air defense system is destroyed 20 km west of Tokmak…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1768325780101009425
A 33 minute video on the defense of Robotyne. It’s too dangerous for Ukraine to move vehicles in the area so the infantry have to walk over 10 km to reach their positions. There isn’t a single house that’s intact, but at 6:56 there is a chicken that’s surviving on its own.
Because of the drones and shelling, the perimeter around Robotyne is thin and there are very few in the village itself. If the Russians launch a sizable assault then Ukrainian artillery and mortars cause the initial casualties and break up the momentum of the attack. Then the drones pick off the surviving vehicles and infantry. If needed, the small Ukrainian infantry forces finish off that last Russian infantry. They regularly clear the village to make sure Russians didn’t make it inside.
If the drones spot any small ammo depots left over from the fighting from the counteroffensive, the infantry collects it and brings it back.
They used to laugh about Russians being forced to fight through conscription, now they recognize they are in the same situation and everyone needs to do their part…
https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1767665199975223491
***
Kherson
A ship was beached on the left bank of the estuary during the Kakhovka Dam flood. It was turned into an observation and control post by the Russians. It was turned into a target by Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767210959867625608
Russian infantry are attacked by drones while seeking cover in houses that are barely standing…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1768745766971953155
The 35th Marines display their work while asking for help with fundraising…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1769080720440365087
***
Free Russian Border Incursion
Three Russian units that fight for Ukraine crossed the border in three locations. Videos indicate that they’ve lost at least eight vehicles.
Free Russian forces fighting under Ukraine’s military conducted the largest cross border raid into Kursk and Belgorod with tanks and other vehicles. They said they wanted to exercise their own choices during Russia’s sham elections…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767440937385390357
A Free Russian BTR uses its 30mm cannon to fire on the Russian checkpoint at Grayvoron…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768931912582680759
A BTR is destroyed…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767455347004829738
A Free Russian tank fires on Russian positions…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767548862548357368
A Free Russian tank is immobilized…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767552345712238796
Other Free Russian vehicles were destroyed or damaged…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767569246987358433
A Russian tank in Kazinka, 15 km inside Russia, destroys civilian houses, presumably to remove cover for Free Russian forces…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1769040877492584586
There is one report that helicopters moved Russian troops into Kazinka…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768314357249606107
The Free Russian Siberian battalion is composed of minorities that want their independence from Russia…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767590096218243492
This Telegram video shows the Free Russian losses in the Grayvoron area…https://t.me/operational_prostor/257
The post says the damage here was caused by shelling…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768926024752832913
More reports of shelling…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768211100649115738
A Ukrainian tank is hit by a Lancet drone behind friendly lines…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1768287446419079304
(….to be continued…)
Thanks for #2 report, lots going on looks to me more good than bad for the UAF
„no one wants to be inside when it’s hit, and it’s almost guaranteed to be hit by a drone. When it is, they don’t want to be trapped if the vehicle starts to burn. If you’re on the outside, you might even be able to roll off the moving vehicle if you see a drone approaching.“
This continues to leave me puzzled. It is not, that the Russian soldiers are stupid, they obviously know their fate (nevertheless try to improve chances). I am just wondering, what motivates them to mobilize (money, „defending motherland“, etc.) and if/when this layer will be „cuddled“ away. I mean, the death/wounded rate of those going to Ukraine is impossible to cover, so I think (over and over again, but eventually I am wrong and do not get it), when there will be only „somewhat sane“ men, „fit for mobilization“ left, who will rather choose resistance at home than willing to be shot to pieces by Bradleys and alike 🤷🏻♂️