Don's Weekly, 18 December 2023: Part 3
(…continued from Part 2…)
Diplomacy
As is supposed to be well-known, in the USA, and officially, there are just two political parties: the Democrats and the Republicans.
An element of extremists within the Republican party started forming in the 1980s, became known as the Tea Party caucus in the early 2000’s and morphed into MAGA followers with the emergence of Donald Trump. MAGA politicians and voters do not believe in democracy and do not accept any vote they lose. They are willing to obstruct any issue, regardless of the cost, unless their extreme platform is turned into law. The other Republicans have broken norms to stack the Supreme Court and while they initially made statements that strongly opposed the January 6th insurrection, they walked back their statements to support Trump out of fear of losing their own power due to Trump voters.
On the issue of aid to Ukraine, the non-MAGA Republicans strongly supported funding Ukraine’s resistance. With a Democratically controlled Senate and a non-MAGA Republican Speaker of the House, aid to Ukraine managed to be approved despite the resistance of the MAGA politicians. In yet another first in a long series of firsts in extreme US governance, the MAGA House representatives initiated proceedings to remove McCarthy as Speaker of the House in early October. The non-MAGA Republicans voted to retain McCarthy, and McCarthy could have made a deal with the Democrats to easily retain power, but any deal made with the Democrats would cause him to lose power with the non-MAGA Republicans. So the Democrats and small MAGA Republicans voted against McCarthy. Naturally, there were many Republicans blaming the Democrats. It took Republicans several attempts but they finally elected Johnson, a MAGA Republican, to become Speaker of the House. Johnson made several statements supporting Ukraine in 2022 but voted against aid in 2022 and this year…https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4274682-where-gop-speaker-nominee-mike-johnson-stands-on-ukraine-israel/
There is strong bi-partisan support for aid to Israel and to Ukraine. Those bills would pass if voted on, but Johnson put Israeli and Ukrainian aid in the same bill as an immigration measure.
The Republicans rely on outrage issues to generate votes. After packing the Supreme Court by breaking the norms of nomination, they finally achieved their goal to overturn the federally protected right to abortion. Since then, support for abortion rights cost them votes in several elections and is a significant threat to the 2024 general elections. On the other hand, the immigration issue polls very well for them. Both Republicans and Democrats agree that there needs to be immigration reform, to include more surveillance and border agents. But there are several items that the House Republicans know the Democrats will not accept. Biden is open to negotiation and some of his supporters are upset at some of the compromises he’s willing to make.
A big change from previous Ukraine aid votes is that non-MAGA Republicans that have strongly supported Ukraine (and Israel) in the past, such as McConnell and Graham, are now willing to hold Ukrainian and Israeli aid hostage in favor of a harsh immigration bill. Their motivation is the 2024 election. Despite declining to address the issue as far back as ten years ago, all the Republicans are claiming that the US needs to secure its own borders before sending aid overseas. And yet while the Democratically controlled Senate is still in session negotiating the immigration bill, the Republican controlled House went home for the holidays.
There are two pots of money used to aid Ukraine. One pot is long term weapons contracts, and that money is gone. The other is the president’s ability to send weapons from existing stockpiles. That money would have been gone but a few months ago the Pentagon decided that it miscalculated the value of the weapons it already sent and put $6.2 billion back on the books. There is about $4.4 billion left. That money used to be released in amounts of $400-500 million but now is being released in $200 million amounts. But these drawdowns can only occur if there are weapons in stock. In yet another pot, there is only $1 billion left to replenish dwindling stocks. Commanders are worried that they don’t have enough ammo for the US’s worldwide defense needs and choices need to be made between replenishing US stocks and sending ammo to Ukraine. This stalled bill in Congress has $61.4 billion in aid to Ukraine, but half of that money would be used to replenish US stocks…https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-funding-weapons-2153375d4394d5783fad73858b51e993
The bottom line is, the struggle for US domestic power is undercutting US foreign power…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/us/politics/ukraine-aid-zelensky-congress.html
A bipartisan bill was passed that prevents any US president from withdrawing from NATO…https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/?fbclid=IwAR2yDe0GtjFXx6yBAx4UM_l1x_YV3HGCNLfkn0yDN_TJuDZlYZNe5UBkmTU
At Scholz’s suggestion, Orban left the room and the remaining 26 EU countries voted to begin Ukraine’s accession talks. Joining the EU is a multi-year process and Orban said there were plenty of opportunities to derail the process in the future, but the accession process is so long that he likely won’t be around to oppose it. He later voted against $54 billion in aid for Ukraine, saying, “The situation in Ukraine is bad, so no more money should be sent to the war. The war should be stopped and there should be a cease-fire and peace talks. Instead, now they want to give money to keep the war going.”…https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-ukraine-eu-membership-5bfc6d6df8d0a13549ab1d46ca6720ed
A year ago, the EU froze over 30 billion euros that is due to Hungary because of Orban’s attack on democratic institutions and EU values. Hungary enacted judicial reforms but Amnesty International and the Hungarian Helsinki Committee say, "The solutions adopted, including their method of adoption, are makeshift and breach relevant laws and bylaws, as well as rule of law principles.” There were no reforms in the areas of right to academic freedom, the protection of the LGBTQ+ minority and the right to asylum. Nevertheless, the EU unfroze over 10 billion euros. The EU denies there was any quid pro quo between the 10 billion euros and Hungary declining to veto Ukraine’s accession request…https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/12/13/brussels-releases-10-billion-in-frozen-eu-funds-for-hungary-amid-orbans-threats
In addition to agreeing to talk to Ukraine about EU membership, the EU agreed to talk to Moldova, as well. The EU signaled that once Bosnia-Herzegovina reaches a certain level of compliance they would advance its bid for membership. Georgia became a candidate on its next step to EU membership…https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-moldova-eu-membership-talks-european-council-georgia-bosnia/32731037.html
Despite invading Ukraine and verbally threatening many NATO countries, and despite halting its participation in the CFE treaty governing the deployment of troops in 2015, Russia blasted Poland for deploying troops on its border with Belarus as a violation of the treaty. The same treaty that they no longer honor…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24059
In yet another ‘espionage affair’ in Germany, the head of a German signals intelligence unit was paid 450,000 euros for providing classified intelligence to Russia since April, 2022. He revealed that Western intelligence could access an encrypted messaging service used by the Wagner group. He printed out classified documents and also photographed information on his computer screen with a phone given to him by a Russia-born German diamond trader who acted as a go-between with the Russian intelligence service. The diamond trader was arrested in Florida and interrogated by the FBI before being sent to Germany. At the jail where they are both held, a note from the former intelligence officer to the diamond trader read, “Your interrogations are the linchpin. Apart from your statements, there are only indications. Just take everything back”. Both are charged with high treason, which is punishable by up to life imprisonment…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/world/europe/germany-spy-trial-russia.html
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1735317160975569055
Equipment
Six 155mm howitzers from South Korea arrive in Estonia…
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1736029593704841507
An inexpensive kamikaze drone that could probably travel a couple hundred kilometers crashed and was recovered by Russia…
The US has plans to produce 100k rounds per month by the end of 2025. Congressional delays in funding the US government in general (it is temporarily funded until January) and this rearmament effort in particular may cause the Army to miss that goal. The EU’s goal is to produce 83k rounds per month by the end of 2024 and more by the end of 2025. Some of these shells will go to Ukraine and some will backfill NATO stockpiles. Estonia estimates that NATO needs to produce 3 million rounds a year for the next ten years, but current plans show that this goal will not be reached by the end of 2025…https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/11/race-make-artillery-shells-us-eu-see-different-results/392288/
The US is paying companies in US, Canada, Poland and India to produce 155mm shells. The US sent over 2 million shells to Ukraine already. Some of these shells will go to Ukraine and some will replenish their stockpiles…https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/10/06/us-army-awards-15b-to-boost-global-production-of-artillery-rounds/#:~:text=The%20plan%20is%20to%20build,working%20to%20replenish%20its%20stockpile.
Ukraine has 100 AQ400 Scythe drones with plans to increase production from 50 drones a month to 500 a month. They can carry 32 kg up to 750 km or up to 70 kg at a reduced range. The Shahed drone used by the Russians have a 40 kg warhead. The AQ400 has a cruising speed of 144 kph and with a small warhead it can loiter for 6.5 hours. It was developed as a cheaper alternative to a cruise missile and costs under $100k, which is cheap in terms of dollars per kilogram…https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-army-receives-new-aq-400-scythe-drones/
The US army is finally developing an electronic warfare training ground in Georgia. This capability was rarely practiced during the Cold War and was rarely needed during the decades of low intensity conflicts…https://www.c4isrnet.com/electronic-warfare/2023/10/13/us-army-to-build-electronic-warfare-training-ground-at-fort-gordon/
Another indication that the US is finally getting serious about EW is the various programs that might mature in 3-10 years…https://breakingdefense.com/2023/12/here-are-the-armys-new-planned-ew-signals-programs/
In the first 18 months, over 80% of Ukraine’s drones were lost to jamming. In the last few months, both sides have been deploying drones that are resistant to jamming. You can clearly see a jamming device on the first tank to get hit by a drone. That said, while jamming resistant drones can counter current jammers, there’s always a counter to a counter and so drones that are immune to jamming may not be immune in the future…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1735301381060223230
Several more Russian vehicles are equipped with jammers and some are hit by drones…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1735035226923942036
It doesn’t mean jammers are obsolete, it just means some drones are immune to some jammers. This home grown jammer is seemingly cheap enough to be installed on a lot of trucks. I have no idea what it’s cost is or how effective it is…
https://twitter.com/ragnars/status/1735296410310861082
A Russian jet was recently shot down near Snake Island while trying to bomb Odessa. Because of incidents like this, the Russians have been working on a longer ranged glide bomb to try and stay out of range of Ukrainian air defense systems…https://defence-blog.com/russia-uses-next-gen-missile-to-strike-ukrainian-targets/
This is a map of civilian aircraft reports of GPS interference. The swath of red in Romania and Turkey is likely a result of activity in Crimea. The red around Moscow and St. Petersburg is probably Russian attempts to jam long ranged Ukrainian drone…https://gpsjam.org/?lat=49.95416&lon=40.03970&z=4.2&date=2023-12-15
The person who posted thinks North Korean ammo caused the barrels to fail on the D30 guns. I think barrel wear is more likely…
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735775504911708336
Two Leopards that were knocked out (maybe in June, maybe later) were repaired and returned to service…
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735758463173628058
Many experts say the French sniper rifle is not as good as other rifles currently being used, but Ukraine is acquiring them anyway…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25425?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Very good summary of the DC circus we have to endure.
There were claims that AQ400 costs $15k in the most basic configuration (GPS navigation, no computer vision)