Don's Weekly, 17 March 2025: Part 3 (Ukrainian Leadership, Diplomacy & Equipment)
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 2…)
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Ukraine
Major General Andrii Hnatov was a graduate of the Kharkiv Tank Institute in 2001 and played a key role in the reformation of the Ukrainian Marine Corps, moving Ukraine away from Soviet uniforms, symbols and doctrine. From 2018-2021 he commanded the 36th Marine Brigade. In 2023 he was responsible for military operations in Bakhmut under the direction of Syrsky. He replaced Drapaty as commander of the Eastern front on January 27, 2025 after Drapaty become the ground forces commander at the end of November. On February 27, 2025, he became Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. On March 16, 2025, he became Chief of the General Staff, replacing Anatolii Barhylevych who had the position since February 2024. Barhylevych will now be the Defense Minister’s chief inspector, overseeing military standards and discipline. Defense Minister Umerov said, "Transformation continues."
A Ukrainian that provides heavy equipment to front line units and is in constant communication with them says situations become worse whenever Syrsky takes personal control of them and calls for a leader that will listen to subordinates.
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Drone Line
One of Ukraine’s biggest issues is the lack of coordination between adjacent ground units. Many units are battalions that have been detached from their brigades, which further degrades coordination. One measure to reverse this practice is the formation of corps, which would integrate operations between brigades. Proposed in November and announced in February, there are no reports on the status of this initiative or how long it will take to implement the system.
Drone units evolved from individual volunteer efforts into companies and battalions that also fought independently of one another. The ‘Drone Line’ is an effort similar to the Corps System in which Ukraine seeks to coordinate operations between drone units. It began with the expansion of five elite drone formations into regiments and brigades: the 20th Separate K-2 Regiment, the 429th Achilles Regiment, the 427th RAROH Regiment, the 414th Madyar’s Birds Brigade, and the Phoenix Regiment.
These formations will be the anchor units in the high-risk areas of the battlefield and will create a unified strike system to detect and attack anything the moves within 10-15 km of the front line. Some aspects of coordinated drone operations include establishing patrol operations to cover the entire length of the battlefield at all times, coordinate frequency use so there are no conflicts between units using radio-controlled drones, collect and quickly distribute information, and coordinate drone strikes and mining operations based on largest threats, priority targets and available resources. These formations would also establish and communicate changing Russian and Ukrainian tactics and capabilities, and they would provide the feedback needed to quickly modify the production of drones based on the constantly changing battlefield environment.
To support rapid drone modification and reduce foreign dependencies, Ukraine has been working for two years on an effort to produce all drone components domestically. Recently, the Vyriy Drone company built 1,000 8” drones in which all the parts were manufactured in Ukraine. The company built the frames, initiation boards, flight controllers and radio control systems. The Ukrainian companies of D1 and Odd Systems built the video transmitters and cameras.
Ukraine is standardizing drone production and localized production will be scaled up once that is completed.
Drones assembled with Chinese parts and thermal cameras usually cost around $700. The cost of the drones built with Ukrainian parts wasn’t specified but were reported to be cheaper, despite the fact that the raw materials for local production still have VAT and import duties attached to them while those charges for imported Chinese components are voided for the duration of the war. It is possible that in a month or two the tax code will be changed to remove the taxes on imported raw materials needed to produce drones. In a six month period, Vyriy Drone spent $2.4 million on taxes for components last year.
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Diplomacy
Ukraine agreed to a 30-day cease fire. Russia also agreed to a cease fire and then listed demands that made it clear they were not interested in a ceasefire. An FSB document obtained by European intelligence said a peaceful resolution cannot happen before 2026. In the meantime, the document said that Ukraine, not Russia, should have demilitarized zones in the northeast and near Crimea, and the current Ukrainian government should be dismantled. The US would also have to stop arming Ukraine and Ukraine would have to reduce the size of its army. Demands will continue to be exchanged for quite some time. In the meantime, the US resumed sharing intelligence and shipping equipment.
The meeting between Trump’s negotiator, Steve Witkoff, and Putin had been planned for days. A state visit between Belarusian leader Lukashenko and Putin was announced the day before Witkoff arrived. Several reports indicate Witkoff waited eight hours before being summoned to Putin in an evening meeting. By 2 am, Witkoff was flying home from Moscow with a list of Putin’s demands. Trump denies that Witkoff had to wait at all and the meeting was, hopefully, very good.
Because the US is no longer reliable, 34 army chiefs met in Paris or dialed in from Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, to plan credible security guarantees for Ukraine and gauge which nations are willing to participate, what its mission will be and whether it would operate under the UN or another body. The United States did not take part in the discussions.
Germany is leading the way for European rearmament with action and words. They are now willing to borrow money to increase the speed of defense spending. The goal is to deregulate across Europe and within the nation states and produce equipment cheaply. Rheinmetall overtook Volkswagen in value, tripling since Trump became president. They are considering turning Volkswagen’s Osnabrueck factory into a tank factory.
The US paused funding that provided evidence of kidnapped Ukrainian children that were taken to Russia. If the funding isn’t restored, the UK may be asked to step in and replace the funding.
Lt Gen (ret) Keith Kellogg was the United States Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Russia didn’t like him so he was promoted to Special Envoy for Ukraine.
Because the truth is “anti-Trump”, “radical”, “leftist”, and “partisan”, Trump dismantled the Voice of America, which was established in 1942 to combat Nazi and Japanese propaganda. VoA can no longer fight authoritarians in its own country.
After Russia’s open full-scale invasion, Biden authorized a license to allow Russian financial institutions that were related to energy to conduct business in order to minimize the shock to the global energy markets. Trump just let the license expire, meaning no one can buy oil from Russia without being hit by sanctions. One Fox correspondent said he was told it was a negotiating tactic. Another Fox Correspondent asked multiple sources if it was intentional or an oversight and for two days was told that they were looking into it.
Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik was convicted of separatist actions and sentenced to one year in prison and banned from politics for six years. He calls for the Serb-run territories to join with Serbia. He’s also accused of corruption and pro-Russian policies. He supports Trump, speaks with Orban, met with Putin and has refuge in Serbia from detention.
Romania barred Georgescu from running for president. Russia was upset that their candidate was no longer eligible and said the action was a violation of all democratic norms in the center of Europe. Romania replied, “Russia has not had free elections for almost 20 years. An aggressor state cannot give lessons in democracy.”
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The Value of Trust and Reliability
Weapon purchases are not just about the cost and functionality of the weapon. The reliability and values of the country selling the weapons is also taken into consideration. The war in Ukraine will hurt future Russian sales. The actions of the Trump administration will hurt future American sales.
“Most countries probably right now are doing a plan B. They’re saying, ‘We trusted the F-35, we trusted the United States, we trusted this to our national security. Oh my gosh. What happens if we can't trust it? What's our plan B?’” a former defense official said. “I think we can see these mixed fleets of aircraft that might, over time, reduce the overall dependence on the United States,” he said. “I don't see the demand for the F-35 increasing significantly in Europe in this environment.”
A military aerospace analyst said, if the U.S. stopped supplying parts or services, the American defense industry in Europe would be crippled. Current buyers are likely betting they can wait out the instability of this administration. Another said, “The F-35 was the product of an era of extreme trust, and they may never trust the U.S. again.”
Portugal said they would not replace their F-16s with F-35s. They later issued a statement saying F-35’s have not been ruled out, but they have not signed the contract yet. A major concern is the possibility of the US blocking spare parts and software upgrades. The decision will probably be made after their snap election.
Canada signed a contract for 88 F-35s and already paid for 16 of them, but are considering canceling the remaining purchases because major maintenance, overhaul and software upgrades happen in the US. A proposal for Sweden established that assembly would take place in Canada, there would be a transfer of intellectual property and the aircraft would be maintained in Canada. The argument against canceling the remaining F-35s is the increased logistical and training costs of two separate aircraft, plus the cost of canceling the contract, plus Canadian companies earned $1.3 billion from 1997-2021 for being part of the supply chain of the F-35. It’s difficult to overstate how angry Canada is with their former friend and neighbor.
Switzerland signed a deal to buy 40 F-35 and associated weapons for $6.6 billion. Four of the F-35s would be assembled in Switzerland as part of the knowledge and technology transfer deal. A politician from Switzerland’s second largest party said, "Since Trump took office, Swiss arms procurements like the US F-35 jet have increasingly proven to be major mistakes. The costs of the F-35 are rising to uncontrollable levels, while key questions about its operational capability and independence remain unanswered. Therefore, it is clear: the [Defense Department] must finally act and stop the procurement of this dysfunctional project." The Federal government responded by saying that Switzerland would bear the cost of canceling the contract. It assumes that Washington will respect its legal obligations and will not be canceling the contract.
The Netherlands already received 40 of the 52 F-35s they ordered and said they won’t cancel their contract for F-35s.
Turkey was kicked out of the F-35 program in 2019 because they bought an S-400 air defense system from Russia. They contracted for 100 jets and stood to make $9 billion building parts for the fighter. They would have been welcomed back into the program if they removed the S-400 from their territory. After announcing their intention in November 2024, Turkey made the formal request to buy 40 Typhoon jets from BAE Systems last week.
Regarding a kill switch on the F-35, Lockheed Martin said, "As part of our government contracts, we deliver all system infrastructure and data required for all F-35 customers to sustain the aircraft. We remain committed to providing affordable and reliable sustainment services to our customers that enable them to complete their missions and come home safely."
The F-35 is built and assembled in multiple nations. Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor. The F-35A is the conventional fighter, the F-35B is the short takeoff and vertical landing jet and the F35-C is the carrier variant. Great Britain is the F-35 program's only Level 1 partner, responsible for 13-15% of each aircraft, including software code. They produce the rear fuselage of all F-35s.
Other nations that make parts include Australia, the Netherlands, Canada, Italy, Denmark, Norway, Japan and Germany. Even China produced the magnets used in the turbomachine pumps produced by Honeywell, which had previous issues with hiding Chinese production in sales to the US.
The F-35 is a complex system and America’s defense industries are much smaller than they were in the Cold War. The ability to design, build and assemble such a complex machine quickly and in large numbers requires the industrial base of multiple nations. The US also buys foreign equipment, such as BAE’s M-777, but for national security reasons they will only do so if they can produce and support it in the United States. These issues need to be considered by each nation when planning their own purchases for national security and independence.
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Equipment
In an ongoing effort to reduce reliance on foreign weapons and avoid restrictions on those weapons, Ukraine announced they produced and used a variant on the Neptune cruise missile that has a range of 1000 km. It has a new guidance system, uses satellites to verify its location and uses an infrared homing system for terminal guidance onto the target. There were no further details on the target or production levels of the missile but there is speculation that the Tuapse refinery was hit by a ‘Long Neptune’.
Ukraine’s Sky Fortress system uses 9,500 acoustic sensors to detect and track Russian drones. They are now developing Sky Hunter, which analyzes real-time data from radar systems, tracks the coordinates of airborne targets and visualizes them on a control panel. It then calculates the best trajectory for an intercepting drone to hit and destroy the Russian drone. The software can be integrated into drones made in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s SAMP/T air defense system, operational since June 2023, shot down a Russian jet. The time, location or other details were not shared by the head of Ukraine’s PSU Communications Department. He said that the Patriot system was one of the most effective systems for destroying aircraft.
The frequency of a drone controller signifies the presence of a drone operator. This can result in an attack on the operator.
Drone defenses are evolving. Russian Zala-16 drones have a second camera on the top of the fuselage. Algorithms use the images to evade intercepting drones but losses are currently still high.
Drone offensive capabilities are also evolving. A fixed-wing drone with four shotguns is being tested.
The GLSDB was deployed in February 2024 but was easily jammed and (more importantly) the booster didn’t reliably separate after launch. Boeing/Saab launched 19 to test the separation issues, so hopefully that’s resolved because the munition will be re-introduced into service. They also say the GLSDB has been hardened against EW, but they said that last year, too. The air-launched SDB hasn’t had EW issues.
Good to hear more positive news about military reorganisation is Ukraine. And please keep updating on the progress of the Drone Line. It surely has the potential to be one of the most significant developments of this conflict, although the rate of technological advance is so fast I am a little skeptical. What seems innovative today, can be quickly overtaken by the other side.
Nice report!! Thanks!