Don's Weekly, 17 February 2025: Part 3 (Diplomacy & Equipment)
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 2…)
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Diplomacy
War is a battle of wills. Before actual fighting or the production of weapons, there must be a will to fight, and the struggle for that will was quite visible last week.
The United States intends to set the conditions for the end of fighting but has no plans to participate in maintaining those conditions. An end to fighting without the integration of Ukraine into the European defense network is simply a pause and a later resumption of fighting on Russian terms.
The leverage the US has is refusing to send any further aid to Ukraine. It can also reduce or eliminate the sanctions against Russia. It is clear Trump’s commitment to Ukraine is purely transactional and not based on humanitarian principles or collective security. It is not clear what he hopes to gain if he cannot conclude a deal with Ukraine that he favors. This may depend on what Russia has to offer.
The US and Russia are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss the war. Ukraine was not invited. Kellogg said Europe may not be at the table if the US brokers negotiations to end the war, but then said Europe would not be left out. “I will never accept any decisions between the United States and Russia about Ukraine, never,” said Zelensky.
The US Secretary of Defense says it’s unrealistic for Ukraine to return to its 2014 borders and ruled out NATO membership as a means of providing security for Ukraine. He also said that if any NATO member commits troops to Ukraine as part of a peace plan the US will not honor Article 5 if they are attacked. He says the US must prioritize defending its own borders and counter the Chinese threat, and that NATO members but increase defense spending to 5% instead of the current target of 2%. (The US currently spends 3.4% of its GDP on defense). Trump also wants Russia back in the G7.
The convicted felon Trump held a “lengthy and highly productive” telephone call with the aggressor and war criminal Putin. He wrote, “We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now.”
…and that right after he’s ‘informed’ Pudding and the public, first…
Ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine and letting (a weakened) Russia keep occupied territories are two basic goals for Putin. Such statements make the US an ally of Russia. They undermine one of the basic principles held since the Second World War that stronger nations should not be allowed to take the territories of weaker nations. That was tested in Georgia in 2008 and the world failed that test. Based on that response, Russia made a larger effort in 2014 and the world responded with cowardice, appeasement, and a preference for economic convenience. In 2022, Russia made an even larger play for world domination and the West finally responded in a limited but still meaningful way.
After three years, Russia’s ability to fight has been severely degraded, leverage is being gained, and Trump makes the entire war about him without regard for those that are killed and their land that is occupied. Each domestic and international incident is simply another opportunity for him to gain more power. Governance in service of others is a foreign concept to him.
Allowing Russia to keep Ukrainian territory will only lead to future Russian aggression. This administration says that the US is now focusing on confronting China, but Russian successes in Ukraine will not deter China. The elimination of USAID not only hurts millions of people in 177 countries, including the US, but it was a very inexpensive investment in health, security and soft influence. The void left is now ready for China to fill.
Trump foreign policy is very erratic, often supported by lies. His decisions pay little regard to long term developments, and there are still many possible outcomes, all ego driven. Simply ending US aid to Ukraine is not the worst outcome. Ukraine could continue to fight with only European support. What would be worse is if the US reduced or ended the sanctions on Russia.
And yet, Trump claims the aid to Ukraine will continue. He uses words that have little meaning or logic: “We will continue sending aid to Ukraine; we just want to ensure our money is safe. If we don’t do this, Putin will say he has won. Everything depends on us. And we will go as far as necessary because we are not going to let things go another way.” His Treasury secretary is working on an economic cooperation deal that brings in continued material support for Ukraine (for rare earths, minerals, oil and gas).
Trump wanted half of Ukraine’s minerals, oil and gas to pay for what the equipment the US already sent to Ukraine. Zelensky rejected it because it did not come with a security guarantee from the US. European diplomats said the deal was colonial in nature, with a Western nation exploiting a smaller and weaker nation for commodities. A White House official said, “President Zelenskyy is being short-sighted about the excellent opportunity the Trump administration has presented to Ukraine. Binding economic ties with the United States will be the best guarantee against future aggression and an integral part of lasting peace. The U.S. recognizes this, the Russians recognize this, and the Ukrainians must recognize this.”
The words of the US are very erratic. The actions of the US have yet to be seen and the possibilities range from very good to very bad for Ukraine, or possibly both. And Trump’s position is highly influenced by the last person that talked to him.
It is clear that even if the US remains a democracy and the administration is changed in the future once again, it is no longer the reliable ally it once was. Europe needs to arm itself and establish policies as if it had no allies. Intentions can change in an instant. Capabilities remain even if intentions change. And every nation in the world must now recognize what Israel, North Korea and Iran understands: Nuclear weapons are an additional level of deterrence when conventional defenses fail.
Ukraine can make its own choices, regardless of any American efforts. Europe can make their own choices, regardless of any American efforts. America can simply make these choices harder or easier.
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"A peace deal cannot be signed in Munich because it is Munich. We remember what things were signed here. I do not repeat such things," Zelensky said.
The UK says there can be no negotiation about Ukraine without Ukraine, and that Russia is a threat well beyond Ukraine.
“Why are we giving them everything they want even before the negotiations have started? It’s appeasement, it has never worked”, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said. “You need Ukrainians to implement this deal. I mean, that also doesn’t look good if somebody agrees on something and everybody else says, ‘Fine, you have agreed, but we will not follow this.’ The Ukrainians will resist and we will support them.”
The French defense minister said, "Either we are within the parameters of a discussion that will genuinely bring peace through strength, or, on the contrary, it will be peace through weakness," he said adding the latter could lead to "dramatic security situations" and a "widening of the conflict."
The Swedish prime minister said, “It’s certainly an innovative approach to a negotiation to make very major concessions even before they have started. Not even Chamberlain went that low in 1938. That Munich ended very bad anyhow.”
“Europe won’t survive sleeping through another wake-up call,” Lithuania’s foreign minister said, “I hope, seeing from the public space, there are a lot of people who do understand what's at stake. They do understand that it's not just the Ukrainian future at stake, but it could very well be a European future at stake. Our region is in danger. So it's our future that is being decided in those talks as well.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, commenting on Donald Trump’s recent conversation with Vladimir Putin, stressed that neither Ukraine nor Europe would support a "dictated peace". Eleven years after the first invasion and three years after the open invasion he said, "The Bundestag must urgently adopt a resolution classifying the war in Ukraine and its severe consequences for Germany’s and Europe’s security as an emergency situation under paragraph 2 under Article 115 of the Constitution. This will ensure that our support for Ukraine, which is more crucial than ever today, will no longer come at the expense of other obligations our state must fulfil for its own citizens. We find ourselves in this situation once again today. We must face the reality of what the actions and statements of the US administration mean for Ukraine, Europe and the world. Inaction would pose a threat to the security of our country and our continent and I will not allow this to happen at this critical time for our nation."
Vance said, “There’s a new sheriff in town,” and proceeded to lecture Europe about immigration and free speech. He appeared virtually at an AfD rally and urged them to move on from past guilt. CDU/CSU candidate Merz said, “The American security guarantees are being called into question, the Americans are questioning democratic institutions, and they are interfering quite openly in an election, including in relation to democratic parties and their majorities. It is not the job of the American government to explain to us here in Germany how we should protect democratic institutions. And we will continue on our course."
There are quite a few Republicans like Senator Graham that support Ukraine but will not oppose Trump because of the threat to their re-election.
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After Ukraine decided not to renew an agreement to continue shipping Russian gas through its pipelines, Slovakia started receiving gas through Turkey. Fico says he now has the moral right to stop shipments of gas to Ukraine.
The US secured the release of an American and two Belarusian political prisoners in return for the release of a Russian bitcoin fraud criminal. The release of more political prisoners may follow in return for reduced sanctions on Belarusian banks and the export of potash. Lukashenko is trying to stay in power while avoiding Russian domination.
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Equipment
The propellant charges used in Russian artillery have varying amounts of gunpowder in them, which negatively impacts range and accuracy. In some units, half the artillery pieces do not function properly because untrained crews do not properly maintain them.
Germany is producing 1,000 HX-2 drones a month. With a range of 100 km, it has AI capabilities that make it resistant to EW jamming and can be employed as a networked swarm. 10,000 have been sent to Ukraine.
Ukraine says they are producing 200,000 drones a month.
Just in case anyone here missed it, Illia Ponomarenko:
So you're telling me that JD Vance gave a fiery speech thrashing entire Europe over the lack of democracy and freedom of speech two days after the White House revoked the Associated Press’ accreditation for failing to obey and use “Gulf of America” in their reporting?
Ogaaaaaaaaaay.
"Ukraine says they are producing 200,000 drones a month." - that's not production level, that's supply level, according to the article quoted. So production+import.