Don's Weekly, 17 February 2025: Part 2

by Donald Hill (with Tom Cooper)

(…continued from Part 1…)

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Pokrovsk

Russians report a shortage of food, water, fuel and reinforcements. In addition to Ukrainian drones, there is constant shelling. Morale is low, Russians are feeling overwhelmed and they hope for airstrikes to stop Ukraine’s counter attacks.

…big surprise, considering how many troops they’ve stuffed into this sector, and what kind of casualties and damage these have suffered. But, there you have it: this is yet another brilliant example for the failure of the ideology of all those still insistent on ideas like, ‘more troops and arms are going to solve the problem’…

Keep in mind: that’s the essence of what is left of Russian ‘military sciences’.

The 425th Battalion clears the basements of Pischane.

The 68th Jaeger Brigade discussed how they took Dachenske.

After three days of negotiations through drone messages, nine Russians surrendered 2 km northeast of Lysivka. As said: ‘new solutions’ (for old problems… like the Russians refusing to surrender).

A heavily used road 3 km west of Selydove is littered with wrecks, some of which were still smoking and burning. The 37 vehicles were geolocated by Andrew Perpetua below.

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Andriivka

While Drapaty seems to have repaired much (though not ‘most’, and surely not ‘all’) of the damage Syrky has caused in the Pokrovsk Sector, Syrsky is still diligently ruining the Andriivka sector. Obviously, that’s going to take another commander to repair, too…

Why that?

Well, the three weeks-long risk of six ZSU brigades being cut off in the cauldron just significantly increased with a Russian breakthrough to Ulakly from the south. Something of that kind had to happen, sooner or later - simply because some military genius in Kyiv (hint, hint) remains convinced that cauldrons stand for ‘tactical effectiveness’ (indeed: that a retreat from one is his biggest professional achievement of all the times), and thus, as that cauldron is getting deeper, ever less troops have to defend ever longer stretches of the frontline with ever less reinforcements, supplies, and ammunition.

Absolutely unpredictable and thus extremely surprising, isn’t it?

And so, now there is a 1500-metres-wide gap for Ukrainian units still located east of Ulakly.

Fortunately (foremost for those still inside that cauldron) a different attack towards Kostiantynopil (red arrow on the map above) was turned back.

Bottom line: both the ZSU troops fighting in this sector, and we are (eagerly) looking forward for Syrsky to forget about this- and busy himself with some other sector, so that somebody with serious skill in the discipline ‘military command’ can take over.

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Velyka Novosilka

Russia made a two kilometer advance across an eight kilometer front - which, considering how few forces the ZSU has in this sector, is still bordering on miracle. Alternatively, this is another confirmation that Syrsky can’t find this sector on any of his maps, and thus remains not involved…

Russia attacks Ukrainian targets in Novoocheretuvate.

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Zaporizhzhia

Ukrainian drones engaged three Russian air defense systems but there wasn’t any footage from a reconnaissance drone to document the results.

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Black Sea

Ukraine’s navy uses laser guided rockets to intercept 11 Shahed drones.

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Unknown Location

Mi-24 helicopters of the Ukrainian Army Aviation shooting down Russian drones, - including an Orlan-10.

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Nuclear Facilities

The IAEA monitors the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) with the aim of preventing radiological accidents. Russia wants to impose international recognition of their illegal occupation of the plan. The IAEA rotates their observers and Russia failed to provide security guarantees for their vehicles in the past. They’ve also attacked their columns and blamed it on Ukraine. They recently attacked the column with two mortar shells, five artillery shells and four FPV drones and blamed it on Ukraine. Here, a vehicle runs over a mine and keeps driving. The damage to the vehicle is shown here. Some of the attacks from the point of view of the convoy.

Russia also attacked the ZNPP and other nuclear facilities several times in the past and placed military equipment there hoping to draw Ukrainian fire.

Last week, the Russians attacked the Chernobyl nuclear power plant with one of their UAVs, and breached outer shell of the destroyed reactor. Fortunately, the inner shell was not breached.

…must be Pudding demonstrating to Trump he’s somebody with whom one can seriously negotiate and reach firm agreements…

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Unknown Location

Foreign soldiers in the Ukrainian army trip a bounding anti-personnel mine. They are both in the kill zone, but the mine wasn’t set up properly so they live to tell the tale.

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Russia

Russia has a glut of crude oil production. Attacks on the refineries limited the amount of oil that can be converted into gas, diesel and other refined products. Sanctions on 180 Russian tankers make it harder to export the unprocessed oil. Russia has a limited storage capacity for oil and Ukraine also attacked many oil depots. 10% of Russia’s refinery capacity is currently damaged and repairs could take months, not counting any future attacks. The only alternative left to Russia is to cut oil production. As refineries and depots suffer more attacks, and sanctioned tankers face more operational difficulties, oil production could continue to be reduced in upcoming months.

Russian oil exports fell 17% in January 2024 when compared to January 2023. Because of new US sanctions, transportation costs for oil have increased 500% last January. 20% of Russia’s shadow fleet ships have been barred from Chinese and Indian ports. Russia is currently storing 17 million barrels of crude oil aboard tankers and that could rise to 50 million barrels by mid-2025. Russia recently bought 12 smaller tankers at double the cost of tanker purchases last year. Analysts expect Russia to eventually find alternative shipping solutions, but a Russian oil executive said, “The complexity involved in refining and selling oil is becoming overwhelming. Everyone is waiting for this war to be over.” And with this increasing pressure on Russia, Trump wants the war to end without the return of the occupied territories.

The Saratov oil refinery was attacked and a pipeline leading to the catalytic reforming unit was damaged. Slavyansk-on-Kuban was hit by at least five drones. The Andreapol pumping station was hit again, and the switchgear and boiler equipment storage facilities are burning.

Russian high casualties are difficult to process.

Two vehicles designed to jam drones were destroyed in explosions on a base just outside of Moscow.

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Ukraine

In order to recruit soldiers, Ukraine is offering one year contracts worth €23,000 to volunteers who sign up before they turn 25. The contracts also offer zero-interest mortgages, state-funded training, free medical care, dental prosthetic and travel abroad. When the contract is up in a year they have a 12-month exemption from mobilization.

Salaries for existing service personnel are at €460 a month. If you serve in combat it’s €2,300 a month. There is no demobilization in sight for those already mobilised, though - and they don’t get the same benefits. Unsurprisingly, there is a huge amount of resentment from those that signed up out of patriotism. They believe their service is being taken for granted. And nobody can blame them for feeling that way, nor say they’re wrong…

Ah yes… and, just 11 years since the original Russian invasion, and mere 3 years since Pudding’s all-out invasion, the head of the SBU’s counter-terrorism department was arrested for being a Russian agent. Word is, he was recruited in 2018 but remained dormant until his handlers contacted him last December, and that’s why it took so long to get him. Perhaps the SBU might want to emphasise checking and tailing its own officers - instead of those of the ZSU…? Who can say…

Graffiti is used to recruit saboteurs and assassins.

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(…to be concluded in the Part 3…)