Don's Weekly, 16 September 2024: Part 1

by Donald Hill

Hello everybody!

Another week has passed and thus it’s time for Don’s round-up of latest developments. This even more so considering all the contradictive reporting about developments in the Kurks Oblast of the Russian Federation over the last 48 hours.

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Kursk- Western Sector

There are no news from the Komutovka area: seems, the ZSU run a raid there, almost reaching the joint of the E101 highway with A142 and M3 highways. Caused lots of troubles to the Russians, prompting them to send two regiments in that direction. However, beyond that: nobody would say anything.

That said, both sides have focused their attention to the Glushkovsky District.

Two weeks ago, the 103rd Territorial Defense brigade was destroying Russian equipment with their drones. Russian EW units were able to locate the signals from their launch sites and attack them, possibly because the Ukrainian teams didn’t move right after their launches. After the 103rd lost most of its drone teams, the Russians assaulted with the 51st VDV Regiment (see: 8 vehicle assault): driving down from Korenevo this entered Snagost. While this assault was eventually stopped inside Snegost, and the VDV suffered severe losses there, the 103rd was then hit by the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade from the west. This assault resulted in Ukrainian prisoners being taken, and a Ukrainian vehicle was hit by an RPG in Snagost. Two soldiers emerge, one with part of his clothes on fire, but he’s able to put the fire out. Moreover, the 155th managed to drive all the way to Liubimovka before being stopped while entering that village from the south.

The drone teams are an important part of any defensive arsenal, but Russians should not have been able to move seven kilometers with little to no opposition. Territorial Defense brigades often do not have as much equipment as other brigades but it would have been nice if they had a few ATGMs and mines deployed. Once Russia reached the villages they were engaged by Ukrainian forces.

Meanwhile, following in the wake of the 51st VDV Regiment, elements of the 106th VDV division cleared the forest north of Krasnootktyabrskoe and the village itself. As a it pushed towards Snagost, one of its companies was targeted by a drone, which convinced the survivors to pull back for the moment. Nevertheless, Snagost later fell.

The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade pushed into Komarovka and south, past Apanasovka, where a Ukrainian BRDM and dump truck were hit by drones. But within a day, Ukraine was already hitting Russian forces on their flanks and making them pay the price.

On September 13, a Russian attack on Liubimovka reportedly involved 14 AFVs. Opposed by the Ukrainian 501st Battalion (36th Marine Brigade) and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, the fight lasted several hours. A Russian BMD blew up on a mine west of the village and a Ukrainian drone flew into a house on the western side of the village. Eventually, Russia was able to gain control of the village.

Overall, the Russians advanced seven kilometers to Snagost and another six kilometers to Liubimovka, before re-groupping to continue.

By then, the ZSU was hitting the Russians within the resulting cauldron with everything on hand: artillery, mortars, FPVs, and anti-tank guided missiles. The 51st VDV and the 155th Naval Infantry have suffered such losses that upon seizing Liubimovka their surviving troops hunkered down in expectation of Ukrainian counter-attacks (one of 51st VDV’s companies lost 90 out of 100 troops). Indeed, Ukraine was able to regain some ground as evidenced by this report that Ukraine recaptured Obukhovka after losing an M113 to a mine.

Aftermath of a catastrophic detonation of a BTR-82 - probably from the 155th NIB.

Another BTR-82 cooking-up and about to disintegrate in a giant detonation.

While Russia was focused on its frontal attack, Ukraine came in the back door.

At Novy Put, halfway in between Tetkino and Kulbaki, Ukraine deployed the 225th Assault Battalion supported by engineers. The latter first cleared the obstacles along the border, losing a tank and engineering vehicle in the process (51.243014,34.513370). However, the Russians were then only able to watch Ukrainian vehicles advancing with high speed on Veseloye, 1,500 metres north of the border. Around that time, reports appeared indicating that said Ukraine was destroying Russian reconnaissance drones, making it difficult for the enemy to follow ZSU’s subsequent moves. That this caused FSB generals in command of VDV and VSRF troops in this area to lose control is obvious from the Russians reporting they engaged Ukrainian troops at Sergeevka, which is 12 km from the breakthrough at Novy Put and only 5 km from Kulbaki. Since Saturday (14 September), the 225th Assault Battalion is inside southern Glushkovo.

The exact shape of this Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk Oblast remains unknown, but it is obvious that:

a) unexpectedly fierce Ukrainian resistance, heavy losses, and the Ukrainian attack into the Russian rear caused the Russians to stop their offensive;

b) the FSB and the VSRF were taken so much by surprise, that the 155th NIB had to rush its rear elements into attempts to stop the Ukrainian advance on Glushkovo, and

c) the Russians had no defence line south of that town: they were entirely focused on their own counteroffensive, and did not expect an Ukrainian attack into their back. This is also why their reaction was chaotic and slow, and the Ukrainians have managed to reach Glushkovo.

Whether the Ukrainians can now secure the crucial town is to be seen. Even if, fact remains that the Russians remain in control of the road between it and Korenevo: otherwise, they would really be in deep trouble.

Elsewhere in this part of the Kursk Oblast, a Russian drone attacked a house in Tetkino occupied by Ukraine 200 meters from the border (51.2587454556, 34.259611537). It is unknown how far Ukraine advanced into the town but it is another source of pressure on Russia. In turn, the PSU flew an airstrike on a building outside Komarovka reportedly full of Russian troops.

A Ukrainian self-propelled gun was destroyed in Darino. Another SPG was smoking 3km outside Sudzha where three other vehicles were destroyed.

The Ukrainian drone unit called the Khorne Group is confident of a Ukrainian victory. They report that up to 8,000 Russian troops are now encircled and are calling the current fighting ‘Ukraine’s Operation Bagration’, referring to the 1944 battle in which 28 of 34 divisions in Germany’s Army Group Centre were destroyed and 300,000 German soldiers were trapped. A smaller version of that battle is very unlikely as Russia currently has plenty of withdrawal routes if they are pushed back.

Someone from an unnamed special unit said that at the beginning of the Kursk offensive, Ukraine could have reached Kursk if not for the possibility of small, unknown Russian units ambushing them, much like the Russian invasion of 2022. Plus, Kursk was too far for their logistics to sustain their operations. The writer said that the Russian counteroffensive was predictable as they built up their forces and the pressure on Ukrainian positions will increase. He said it also is true for Pokrovsk, where the enemy advance has slowed since Ukraine sent more reinforcements. He did not provide an opinion as to why it took Ukraine so long to send reinforcements to Pokrovsk.

A Russian remote mining vehicle was destroyed by a drone next to a pontoon bridge. It didn’t make sense to park the vehicle so close to a pontoon bridge because a GMLRS hit on the bridge could easily send fragments into the mines at that range. At a different location, another GMLRS strike targeted the infantry instead of the nearby bridge.

A 2.5 minute tour behind Russian lines around Glushkovo.

(…to be continued…)