Don's Weekly, 16 October 2023, Part 2
(…continued from Part 1….)
Black Sea
Aiming to remain able to continue exporting grain, Ukraine is still attacking Russian ships that haven’t withdrawn from Sevastopol - and then at meanwhile the same rate like when there was still the so-called grain deal.
A Russian patrol boat was hit by a submersible drone as it left Sevastopol. A Russian blogger reported its propeller was damaged and it was towed back into harbor. Two days later, a missile carrier was hit and damaged by a drone. A sub was also attacked but the drone missed…https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/13/russia-ukraine-boats-drones-sea/
Despite the missile and drone attacks on the port facilities, Ukraine is still exporting. 19 ships and 740k tons have left the ports and more ships are waiting…
https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1712476934792528265
Equipment
This tweet says from Sep 7 to Oct 1, 300 shipping containers moved from North Korea to Russia. (Satellite images)...
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1712868618864558298/photo/1
The White House reports that 1,000 containers were sent to Russia...https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-politics/ap-us-says-north-korea-delivered-1000-containers-of-equipment-and-munitions-to-russia-for-ukraine-war/
Drones are a threat to both sides. In the absence of an established standard of protection, crews come up with their own solution…https://www.facebook.com/reel/1367612453828754
Another drone screen. The logs are for traction in case the MRAP is stuck…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1712589873880641556
The Germans are sending another precious IRIS-T air defense system at the end of this month…
https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1711777040234430934
Ukraine will lease other air defense systems for the winter…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1713468099318403119
A report that says no Ukrainian Shark drone has been downed by electronic warfare to date, although they have been shot down. The reasons given are autopilot algorithms, well-trained crews, high-quality radio modules, good instructors and technical support teams and luck…
https://twitter.com/externalPilot/status/1710667442391769248
Another contract from Rheinmetal to deliver 150,000 of shells calibre 155mm starting this year and ending in 2024…https://www.rheinmetall.com/de/media/news-watch/news/2023/10/2023-10-10-dritter-abruf-artilleriemunition
Ukraine will soon receive unknown number of Switchblade 600 drones that have a 88 km range. The US is not ordering any more Switchblade 300 drones…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712540362349445397
Russian Economy
The war and its associated sanctions have hurt Russia’s economy, but in a connected world it is more resilient than expected.
The Russian finance minister said, “Everything needed for the front,” a phrase used during WW2. A third of the nation’s budget, $109 billion, will be spent on national defense next year. Before the war, 3% of the nation’s output was sent to the military but that will now be doubled to 6%.
Sanctions have resulted in shortages but some equipment is being sold to non-sanctioned buyers who then send it to Russia. Europe sharply reduced it’s consumption of oil and gas but Russia found other buyers that are willing to pay more than the $60/barrel cap that the West imposed. It was still selling its oil at a discount but since Saudi Arabia lowered its production, Russian oil is being sold at prices closer to the world average. Russian defense industries are employing more workers at higher wages, but some are leaving those factories due to the hours they are forced to work. The total output of Russia may rise by 2.5 percent this year, more than in the EU and US.
Producing weapons takes money away from health care, roads and other civic improvements that increase the standard of living. The ruble has sharply fallen in value, make imports much more expensive. The Central Bank raised interest rates to 13%, fueling inflation and reducing the spending that move the economy.
Trade with China rose 33% in the first eight moths of the year. Trade with India rose 300% in the first six months, and imports from Turkey rose 89%…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/09/business/economy/russia-economy-ukraine-war.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20231009&instance_id=104756&nl=the-morning®i_id=139486627&segment_id=146867&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712723603328794931
Ukraine’s Economy
In 2022, Ukraine’s economy fell 29.1% and inflation was 26.6%. In 2023, it is expected that Ukraine’s economy will grow by 4.7% and inflation will be 7.1%…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712723603328794931
Diplomacy
The pipeline between Finland and Estonia was damaged by external activity…https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-pipeline-24d6623cf2778464fdb4ef1d85c70d91
In Moldova, there is a large segment of the population that supports Russia. A Russian brigade also occupies the breakaway territory of Transnistria. For the first time, the Moldovan government calls Russia a security threat…https://www.ft.com/content/502ccca5-fcfd-4997-b03b-61b9e7552612?shareType=nongift&fbclid=IwAR3jH7WVKZuRS24zTRBf9fqNeC_Tz3NvcreE9JHyCdfUhA0DBVqYEEGUKUE
Putin doesn’t think Israel should attack buildings with civilians in them, equating the siege of Gaza to the siege of Leningrad…
https://twitter.com/GUnderground_TV/status/1712834303501946922
Despite warning from Russia, the Armenian parliament voted 60-22 to ratify the Rome statutes of the International Criminal Courts. Russia failed to protect Nagorno-Karabakh from an Azerbaijani assault and Armenia has concerns about further Azerbaijani attacks. Russia called the ratification extremely hostile to Russia and an incorrect decision. Armenia is now obligated to arrest Putin if he enters to country based on the outstanding ICC warrants…https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-international-criminal-court-president-signs-russia-khachaturian/32637368.html
Politicians in several countries oppose aid to Ukraine and are undercutting public support for Ukraine.
Out of 435 members in the house, the Republicans hold a narrow majority. Eight Republicans voted to oust their party’s Speaker of the House, McCarthy. Not willing to work with the Democrats, indeed, blaming them for the chaos, they voted against him and he lost the position. Two Republicans ran to replace him and Scalise received more votes than Jordan, who supports Trump and does not support aid to Ukraine. But neither of the two candidates came close to receiving enough Republican votes to overcome all of the Democrats that would vote against them and neither would work with Democrats, so Scalise dropped out. Another internal Republican vote was held again with Jordan and a new candidate, Scott, and Jordan received more votes, but not enough to overcome Democrats voting against him. Jordan and his backers are now pressuring all who oppose him by threatening to campaign against them in the party primaries in November with Trump speaking against them, as well.
A separate $300 million bill to fund Ukraine was approved by 101 Republicans and opposed by 117. Some who opposed that bill say they are sympathetic to Ukraine but have concerns about corruption. In any case, no bills of any nature can be passed in the House without a new Speaker.
The leader of Slovakia’s new ruling coalition promised to end aid to Ukraine and resist Russian sanctions.
Anti-Russian sentiment in Poland hasn’t wavered but relations with Ukraine are strained over Ukrainian grain being sold in Poland and lowering the price for Polish grain. Michal Baranowski, a Pole who is the managing director for the German Marshall Fund East, said that the Polish division, however political, does not stay in Poland and the effect it has on the US and Republican party is “terrible”…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/14/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-support-aid.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20231015&instance_id=105263&nl=the-morning®i_id=139486627&segment_id=147396&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422
● Majorities of Americans continue to support providing economic assistance (61%) and sending additional arms and military supplies to the Ukrainian government (63%), down slightly from a year ago. About half of Republicans agree.
● A narrow majority of Americans say that the $43 billion in weapons, equipment and training that the United States has provided to Ukraine has been worth the cost (53% vs. 45% not worth the cost). Six in 10 Republicans say it has not been worth it.
● As in November 2022, about half the public thinks the United States should support Ukraine for as long as it takes even if it means higher prices for US households (47%). The other half prefers that the United States encourage Ukraine to negotiate even if it loses territory (49%). A majority of Republicans say that the United States should encourage negotiation (66%).
● But in response to a separate question that does not explicitly mention the costs to US households, nearly six in 10 Americans say the United States should continue to provide arms and military supplies to Ukraine until it has reclaimed all of its territory (57%). Four in 10 overall (and 50% of Republicans) prefer to encourage Ukraine to negotiate with Russia to end the conflict even if it leads to Russia keeping captured territory (39% overall).
● A slim majority support sending F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv (55%), but Republicans tend to oppose this idea (55%). Majorities across the board oppose sending cluster munitions, perhaps because the question wording revealed that several NATO allies have banned them (61%).
● The data show that flagging desire to support Ukraine could be influenced by several factors, including decreased interest in news about the war; a reduced sense of threat from Russia, a desire for Europeans to take a larger role, a decline in the popularity of Ukrainian president Zelenskyy, and a growing sense that Ukraine has not been able to gain advantage in the conflict.
https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/american-public-support-assistance-ukraine-has-waned-still?utm_source=gi&utm_campaign=ccs&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Ukraine
Exit polls show that Poland’s ruling party since 2015 won the most votes with 36.8% but the opposition coalition will have the majority of the seats in parliament. The coalition promised to build closer ties to the EU and maintain democratic principles…
Miscelaneous
A Ukrainian trained mostly by Germans gives his impressions of the instructors…
https://twitter.com/Rooftop564/status/1709644664284868956
A US Iraq/Afghanistan veteran is fighting for Ukraine in the 59th brigade, 13 km southwest of Avdiivka. He believes that drones should be operated at the squad and platoon level as part of the assault. They should be available to hit bunkers while the assault infantry is occupying the trenches outside the bunker. They should also have drones with them to be used defensively to repel counter-attacks after the position is taken. He says his unit is constantly improving their assault tactics and doesn’t understand other units that won’t change.
A couple things are happening here: One is that drones and infantry is a simple and limited form of Combined Arms, in which two components working closely together makes the sum greater than the individual parts. If artillery, armor and other components are also added then the Combined Arms operation is more complex and likely more effective. Also, note that he advocates for a drone to hit the bunker when the assaulting infantry is in the trenches nearby. This allows for an immediate assault on the bunker right after the effects of the drone takes place, leaving the enemy with less time to recover. The second thing is that his unit is constantly looking to improve their assault tactics and share their knowledge with the rest of the army. This allows them to evolve faster than the Russian army…
https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1709876775990259762
Here is a small fraction of the Russian mines that were recovered…https://www.facebook.com/vostochniyvariant/posts/pfbid04ErhetuFS7Yi1tLiqTrBgtJnQm9brMcUwYnCjmCHDv8nLeAB7GYXEhEyPwt8dqCGl
It appears that a Russian soldier kills his wounded comrade and loots his body…
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713475288833699900
If you place the mines too close together, one detonation will start a chain reaction and then the minefield doesn’t exist anymore…
https://twitter.com/ra_anisz/status/1712910666204410051/photo/2
150m of track and a locomotive was destroyed in Melitopol. The track will be repaired fairly quickly…
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1712825399246241862
Both sides use decoys. Ukraine fired from this position and when they departed they left a decoy, which was destroyed by Russian artillery…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1711287702723711308
The US hospital in Landstuhl, Germany, is authorized to use 18 of its beds to treat Ukrainians. US and other foreign volunteers are being treated there…https://www.reuters.com/world/after-treatment-us-military-hospital-volunteers-ukraine-return-fight-2023-10-12/?fbclid=IwAR3DOczdmXr-hMTy-xw775JywsqQw3ONO-mHFmtuin9Ky6vN_uHlhMc-EOU
Russians say that most of the Ukrainian parents in the occupied territories want their children to be taught in Ukrainian…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1711292722881892432
Russian reloading operations…
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1711765309839786462
Thanks a lot for all the work involved and to share with us!
Thanks again. You started this monday full charged