Don's Weekly, 16 October 2023, Part 1

Hello everybody!

The Ukraine War of the last week has seen a series of major Russian counteroffensives on different sectors of the frontline. In most of cases, Ukrainians have successfully defended. Moreover, they have continued exercising pressure upon the Russian Black Sea Fleet - with the aim of keeping its vessels away from merchants exporting grain from ports in southern Ukraine.

In most sectors of the frontline there was little territorial change. Nevertheless, fighting was intense, especially so becuase of the large Russian push at Avdiivka. They suffered heavy casualties in several days of attacks but they already declared this town ‘the next Bakhmut’, where casualties didn’t matter as long as the political objective was captured.

***

Russia

Air defenses and fires were active in Belgorod…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1712224985178063082

A substation in Belgorod Oblast was attacked…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1713488296414687547

Western Luhansk

Russia made some local attacks but Ukraine held firm.

Eight Russian soldiers were hit by DPICM. Five ran away…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1711654209681056038

A Russian helicopter was shot down northwest of Kremmina…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713638764055048564

Bakhmut

Russia resumed their counter-attacks against Klishchiivka and Andriivka but Ukraine repelled them both and made small gains by Andriivka.

After tracking Russian personnel and vehicles gathering 15 km north of Bakhmut, Ukraine hit them with artillery…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711449797465378881

5 km north of Bakhmut, the 77th and 45th brigades track about a dozen Russians before attacking them with an HE and DPICM round. The last of the submunitions finds a depot. 48.647664, 37.937677…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1711821170733912387

According the the captured Russian major, he was wounded by shrapnel and an assault by the Ukrainian 3rd Assault brigade killed a lot of his unit…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1711394387601539281

The 28th Mechanized Brigade across from Kuriumikva released a compilation of seven pieces of equipment it destroyed…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712050782458044594

A drone flew into a hanger to hit a Russian tank…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1712501784671932633

A Russian soldier tries to outrun a drone…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713155149286318439

Some older footage of the 3rd brigade in Andriivka…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1712817539363844205

Avdiivka

Russians have declared Avdiivka ‘the next Bakhmut’ and they are hoping to encircle the town and wipe out the Ukrainians caught inside. It is likely they will continue to press the attack despite the losses because of the importance they place on the town.

In the north, Russian vehicles were hit by artillery, mines and ATGMs while under the observation of a 25 meter tall mound some call “The Heap” because of the coke tailings piled up there over many years. These Russian attacks were supported by at least 11 airstrikes in Avdiivka and northwest of the town. Ukraine was able to down an SU-25, likely by a Patriot system in assault mode.

In the south, Russian columns of vehicles were detected 10 km behind the Russian front and attacked with artillery and drones. The Russians tried to use at least three motorcycles in an assault but they weren’t able to outrun bullets. A Ukrainian soldier on the southern flank reports that the quality of the troops doesn’t matter. Paratroops, contract, mobilized or separatist troops all are just rushing forward “in hopes Ukrainian positions run out of ammunition.” He also says Russians were using trucks to move infantry through the fields quickly.

A Russian assault starts off with a vehicle driving off a bridge…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1711713103870619847

Ukraine’s 110th brigade shows some of its kills north of Avdiivka…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1713171060487557460

A Russian armored vehicle is hit by an ATGM during a large assault…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711745330494988795

Various scenes from the Russian assault on Avdiivka…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712037034045448338

1) 10 km southwest of Avdiivka, a Russian column behind friendly lines being engaged by artillery. 48.094541, 37.595644…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712195700786667923

1) Same column, a continuation of the bombardment…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1712240934404915220

2) Russian tanks west of Pisky are destroyed. 48.06732855661509, 37.65010758379431…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712537589276954794

3) A BMP runs over a fellow Russian and shrugs off an ATGM. Another BMP also drives away trailing smoke…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1712788298526073244

4) Russian magnesium and thermite munitions over Ukrainian positions…

https://twitter.com/BarracudaVol1/status/1712602744429683022

With heavy Russian airstrikes across the front, Ukraine has been hunting Russian aircraft along the frontline. They brought another one down in the Avdiivka area…

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1712891468812034558

(A ‘reminder’ for how this might have happened can be found here: Ukraine War, Assault Mode, Part 6.)

A BMP is destroyed by a Ukrainian drone…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1712923896301732279

Attacked by a drone, a mine finishes off a Russian tank…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712584172080943201

A Russian tank is knocked out and the crew staggers out…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1712766902550880527

Multiple Russian vehicles destroyed…

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1712552062364561824

A drone ignites a fireball in a Russian BMP…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1712923896301732279

A Javelin attack is captured on a Stugna-P screen. That was definitely a Russia vehicle whose time was limited…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1712534863126081575

Civilians…and pets…still live in Avdiivka…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1712513461572481026

A US veteran fighting for Ukraine is not impressed with the Russians…

https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1712764030249513333

In one day, 45-58 (and maybe more) Russian vehicles were destroyed…

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712634354147479851

Vuhledar

Small-scale skirmishing in this sector with no recorded territorial change.

18 km east of Vuhledar, Russia lost 4 tanks, 4 APCs and over two dozen men…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1711413636797792311

A Russian 152mm gun is destroyed by a drone. What’s notable is that the average range for an FPV drone is 10 km and this flew 17 km. There are efforts to make them fly further…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1711652513219280954

Some days the fighting is so heavy the soldiers of the 68th Brigade dare not lift their heads. This was a quiet day…

Mokri Yaly Valley

Very little movement again, but Ukraine proved to be much more organized in a single firefight for a treeline as described below:

Two Ukrainians initiate a night attack on a Russian trench system in a treeline. The overhead protection in the Russian bunkers is thin enough for the thermal camera to see Russians inside. The Ukrainians throw grenades 10-20m from an isolated section of the trenches and two Russians fire blindly into the night. The firing provides a target for Ukrainians, and they respond with more grenades which cannot be seen at night.

Individual Russians decide to fall back without coordinating with their fellow soldiers. At 2:25 in the video, two Russians mistake each other for the enemy in the dark and start firing on each other. It looks like one Russian succeeds in wounding the other Russian but is then attacked by a grenade. He throws a grenade back towards the Russian he just wounded but it hits a tree and bounces back not far from him. He crawls away on hands and knees and may not have been wounded after all that.

The Ukrainian assault grows to eight people and they all seem aware of each other’s location during the night, with one handing the other a grenade to throw into a bunker. Towards the end, a wounded Russian soldier is seen crawling in the open field to escape the fighting…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711464243281772932

Robotyne

Russia is removing their battered airborne troops and replacing them with mobilized troops. The strong Russian airborne counter-attacks had pushed Ukraine back 2-3 km in some places. Most of the Ukrainian advances this weeks were in the Kopani area, gaining maybe a kilometer of that territory back.

Russian equipment preparing defensive positions is targeted…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711634485614141738

Another discussion about the Russian trench system in this area…

https://twitter.com/solonko1648/status/1711461321529553397

The Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone destroys a T80 tank…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1713472825795719665

The 47th brigade, which paved the way to Robotyne, suffered a lot of casualties. It’s original commander and deputy were removed and the new commander is sending mortar crews, snipers, artillery crews and ATGM crews to the front as assault infantry. An ATGM team protested this decision on video and the team was disbanded. This practice is said to be widely used in other brigades, as well. It’s better to receive replacements trained as assault infantry than to use untrained soldiers in assaults. Not only do you lose their experience that’s needed in other weapon systems, casualties will increase due to their lack of training…https://militaryland.net/news/the-situation-in-magura-brigade-is-far-from-perfect/

3 km southwest from Tokmak, a Ukrainian drone spots a Russian drone team and it’s hit with GMLRS…

https://twitter.com/JohnB_Schneider/status/1711829176259391613

Prisoners from the 108th Guards Airborne Assault regiment near Verbove…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1713448366921617639

Ukrainian helicopters near Robotyne…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1713116910928204003

A Ukrainian sniper hits a Russian soldier that exposes himself near Novoprokopivka…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1713254832046219545

Snipers are used by both sides not only to kill enemy troops but to spot them for artillery, drones and airstrikes. Moving during the daytime can be fatal. This team claims that around Novoprokopivka Russia has more artillery and drone attacks than Ukraine…https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231012-on-southern-front-ukraine-s-struggle-to-pierce-russian-lines

Kherson

Attrition continues on both sides but Russian soldiers continue to complain of the pressure they’re under because of Ukrainian artillery and drones.

Thermal imagery from a drone records a four-man long range reconnaissance team ambushing a lone Russian supply truck…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711985946046906791

Two women were wounded when their church was shelled…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1711312175883514237

It’s important to destroy Russia’s ability to move supplies…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711458807879021015

A drone attack on an occupied shack in Oleshky. 46.619998, 32.686715…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711458236971315262

Last week, a Russian politician was bombed in Nova Kakhovka. This week, a statue of Lenin was on fire…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1711446411554767063

Russian reports say that Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks have seriously impacted Russian defenders on the left bank and they are asking for help…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1711672258551255139

A compilation of Russian equipment attacked by artillery on the left bank…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1711282529355882669

(….to be continued….)