Don's Weekly, 16 November 2023: Part 2

(…continued from Part 1…)

Robotyne

Ukraine is still moving forward a few fields at a time, but none of the progress seems to be further south. Instead, they are pushing west and east, widening the pocket instead of deepening it.

Russian positions at the edge of Verbove are shelled…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1722198670702161947

A Russian stash of ammo and mines out in the open was somehow detected by drones…

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1723377193848328410

18 km south of Kamianske, a Ukrainian shell lands within 30 meters of an air defense unit. It may or may not have been damaged by shrapnel, but it was intact enough to drive away. If Ukraine had enough ammo, about six of the $800 shells would have been fired at once and it very likely would have been destroyed…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1721855857917333836

The official count is 19 servicemen and 1 civilian killed, 11 civilians wounded in the missile attack during the awards ceremony for the 128th Mountain brigade’s artillerymen. The number of military wounded weren’t confirmed…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1723327298043044278

A Russian EW system is destroyed 25 km from the front lines. 47.182137, 35.947999…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1719770818203336743

Kherson

Ukraine is slowly expanding its bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper river. The island north of Hola Prystan had been patrolled by Ukraine but they now fully control both the island and the village. Oleshky, vital for control of the road leading from the (destroyed) Antonivskyi bridge, is firmly in Russian hands. East of that city, Ukraine is on the edge of the villages of Poima, Pischanivka and Pidstepne, but there is also a report that they pushed towards Sahy. If true, seizing the crossroads at that location means that Oleshky no longer has access to roads directly to its east but it does have several roads 3.5-7 km away that lead south and eventually east 3.5 km later.

A Google interactive map of the Sahy crossroads…https://www.google.com/maps/@46.6161873,32.7895427,3a,75y,74.39h,87.78t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipOmyASUWLmC9N2p7T3QT8kYC5Cdjl3D1iUfV18G!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOmyASUWLmC9N2p7T3QT8kYC5Cdjl3D1iUfV18G%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi4.174528-ya278.4088-ro-1.1630051-fo100!7i7680!8i3840!5m1!1e4?entry=ttu

In Krynky, Russia tried to eliminate the Ukrainian foothold with attacks from three sides. After a week, Russian attacks largely subsided and they took up blocking positions to prevent Ukrainian expansion, especially towards Kozachi Laheri. Russia also hit Ukrainian positions not only with artillery, but with TOS-1 thermobaric attacks and a large number of airstrikes. Since Russia does not use those attacks in close proximity of their own troops it's an indication of the extent of Ukrainian territorial control.

A Google interactive map of where Russia and Ukraine are likely fighting right now, west of Krynky…https://www.google.com/maps/@46.7296399,33.0679084,3a,75y,4.08h,90t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipMFxOW6iY9LwYeGg_K9oPvLV4NayuRu_m2yzQlt!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipMFxOW6iY9LwYeGg_K9oPvLV4NayuRu_m2yzQlt%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya323.67914-ro-0-fo100!7i8704!8i4352!5m1!1e4?entry=ttu

While Russia has significantly more troops than Ukraine does, there are large gaps in Russian defensive positions and there is a lot of movement by small patrols from both sides. For persistent surveillance, Ukraine set up some cameras in the forest around Krynky. Some of their patrols through the forest extend to the highway 4.5 km south of the village. The highway runs from between Kozachi Laheri and all locations east of it and Russian vehicles have been warned not to use it. Russians are also prevented from using the road from Kozachi Laheri to the west, but it still can safely use roads leading south. One of Ukraine’s goals is to seize the village to link up their bridgeheads. Russia is trying hard to prevent that.

Ukraine crosses the Dnieper regularly (and has done so for over a year). They cross both at night and during the day in clear weather, but they have taken advantage of the foggy morning to cross and evade observations from Russian drones. We have an image of a BTR-4 being transported to Krynky and there is reportedly an image of a destroyed Ukrainian HUMMWV somewhere. Russian bloggers have several reports of other Ukrainian vehicles being spotted on the left bank. Ukraine reportedly has enough supplies for its troops deployed there to last for one week. They could transport more, but then that would increase their supply requirements.

Another factor is that Ukraine controls a limited amount of territory, and most of that is marshland. Only so many people can be deployed in the marshes, and if too many people are deployed on the dry land they will become targets for airstrikes, MLRS and thermobaric area attack weapons and their casualties will increase. Because of that, Ukraine has chosen to use small attacking forces heavily supported by artillery and drones. Since the right bank has higher elevations than the left bank, Ukraine is also supporting attacks on the edge of the marsh with tank fire, which is right at the edge of their effective range of 3000 meters. There was even a Russian report of a Ukrainian helicopter firing rockets over Krynky. Small assault forces backed by heavy firepower is similar to the tactics they’ve used at Andriivka and other battlefields.

For its part, Russia brought in a thousand troops as reinforcements, but the Kherson sector is a big battlefield, a thousand soldiers can only cover so much ground and these reinforcements are already complaining of Ukrainian artillery and drones.

One reason why Ukrainian drones are so effective is that so many Russian EW systems have been hunted and destroyed. Coupled with that, Ukraine has used their own EW systems to interfere with Russian drones. It hasn’t eliminated Russian drone attacks, but it’s reduced them. The reduction in Russian EW capabilities also contributed to greater Ukrainian surveillance by drones, which directly contributed to attacks on several Russian drone teams, further reducing the presence of Russian drones.

For the moment, Ukraine has local air superiority in the drone battlespace. There is no guarantee how long it will last, but it does make it harder for Russian EW systems and drones to increase their capabilities. Because of Ukrainian drone dominance, Russian armored vehicles are largely staying 25 km away from the river. Trucks still have to provide supplies, but they are being attacked where they are found, either by drones on individual targets or by M31 rockets when a group of them are found. Even motorcycles are being targeted.

If Ukraine ever manages to capture Hola Prystan they will be able to ferry vehicles into the town, but in order to sustain an offensive towards Crimea they would need a pontoon bridge over the Dnieper. The three locations for such a bridge is through Oleshky, at Lvove (in between Krynky and Korsunka) and at the destroyed dam site of Nova Kakhovka.

The Russian 810th Marine brigade was rushed to Krynky. Its chief-of-staff, who was not on the front line, but was fatally wounded anyway…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1723438186704015831/photo/1

In 2016, Ukraine built a 560m bridge in two hours across the Dnieper near Lvove…https://defence-blog.com/ukrainian-military-engineers-built-560-m-span-pontoon-bridge-over-the-dnieper-river/

An interactive Google map near the site where a pontoon bridge was built during a military exercise in 2016…https://www.google.com/maps/@46.7845361,33.1381442,3a,75y,63.66h,76.63t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipPx7Asly-gvevfXyTZv-E3CzhfqGOLSlvhA5qfE!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipPx7Asly-gvevfXyTZv-E3CzhfqGOLSlvhA5qfE%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-4.2776732-ya96.51032-ro-0-fo100!7i6746!8i3373!5m1!1e4?entry=ttu

Facing west, Krynky is bombarded by the Russians, but it’s another look at the terrain…

https://twitter.com/vosintt/status/1721948468426543431

An open field with a trench and a bunker is attacked by a drone…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1722726418914672791

10 km south of Korsunka, a Russian EW vehicle is riddled by a M31 rocket…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1722299262334111942

West of Krynky, this is the terrain where Ukraine has the advantage. 46.7285005134, 33.073940754…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1723990791167607060

The command post of a newly appointed Russian commander was hit by a missile, killing three colonels, among others. The commander lived. Russians claim that other disgruntled Russian gave the location of the command post to the Ukrainians…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1721872405038059783?fbclid=IwAR0Tqq1-znsuNQGa98iQ4f_IA1OVdOegdAVFzSHZYu7LxgMvWBHwzCVsYPM

25 km southwest of Oleshky, 11 Russian trucks in Hladkivka are hit by two GLMRS rockets. Three trucks get away…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1723297213218992633

A Russian headquarters 60 km south of Kherson was hit…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1722984961777565811

For whatever reason, a Russian drone is dropping leaflets…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1723009303215292881

Somewhere in the region, another Russian EW system is destroyed…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1723774116744847552

There are so many Ukrainian drones active that they chase down a pair of Russians on a motorcycle (graffic!!):

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1723726346562539541

I posted this video to show the destroyed railroad bridge, how easily the Ukrainians cross the river, and a sample of the terrain once they disembark on the marsh left bank…

This video shows how Soviet-era pontoon bridges are deployed and how they can be used as ferries. The mention of Special Operations casualties refers to raids prior to the establishment of permanent bridgeheads. At the end, it shows the deployment of non-floating scissor bridges that allows movement over marshy areas…

Another look at the terrain in between the river and the firm ground where the villages are. The soldiers have to walk about 3 km to rotate personnel, bring supplies in and the wounded out…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1722351676273659950

Magyar’s Birds

Robert Brovdi is a 48-year-old Ukrainian businessman and former politician that uses the name “Madyar”, also known as “Magyar”. His videos of his unit’s drone successes are punctuated by the expressions, “bada-boom” and “jaga”.

In 2022, he joined a Territorial Defense unit and commanded a platoon at Irpin, just outside Kyiv, and at Kherson. He decided he could be more effective and raised money for drones and recruited pilots, forming Magyar’s Birds. They were initially assigned to the 28th Brigade. Since then, they became an independent unit to support various operations and were tasked to operate within Bakhmut until March after 110 days of combat. Zelensky awarded him a medal in August. In a September fundraiser, he asked for $1.25 million for drones, 1,000 evacuation carts and other equipment, and received it from over 50,000 donors. Among the other equipment was three EW systems that could suppress Russian drones along a 50 km stretch, which is the distance from Nova Kakhovka to Oleshky.

Magyar shows how the evacuation carts are being built and how they are used…

His next request was for 500 boats, 500 engines and thousands of vests for the Marines. By late October, his requests became urgent and he postponed other purchases to prioritize this new goal. Ukrainian communities also do their own fundraising and on October 26, Magyar reported that Kyiv sent $27.8 million to the Ukrainian Marines. In the end, he raised $1 million in six days, enough for 100 boats and engines. Presumably, at least 400 boats/engines were purchased with the Kyiv funds, among other things.

He’s also been posting a lot of successful drone attacks, (unsuccessful attacks don’t seem to make the rounds), attacking anything that moves, even resting drones nearby, ready to attack as soon as a target presents itself.

A Liberian-flagged ship was hit by a Russian missile as it entered Odesa. One person was killed, three wounded…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1722341913351643505

(….to be continued….)