Don's Weekly, 16 June 2025: Part 2
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 1…)
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Kherson
Ukraine reported that 2,314 Russian drones attacked targets in this sector between May 26 and June 1. 906 of the attacks were in the city of Kherson. Some of the first uses of fiber optic drones were used by the Russians here but most of their drones continue to be controlled through radio waves and 1,658 (71%) of the Russian drones that week were neutralized by EW, including 744 (82%) of the drones attacking in Kherson. In addition, 10,000 artillery shells were fired during the month of May, killing 25 and injuring 212.
Russian ammo and fuel depots were bombed at a location that was used for drone operations.
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Black Sea
A Ukrainian drilling rig was hit by a Russian cruise missile. Russia claimed the rig was used as a base for Black Sea operations. Ukraine denied that but said they used the rig for other reasons. It’s been hit more than ten times.
A Russian gas rig was hit by aerial drones launched from naval drones.
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Baltic Sea
Russia has been jamming GPS signals in the Baltic for over a year now, impacting plane and naval navigation. The scale of the jamming has increased. Drones have crashed or lost control and Russian ships have vanished from radar or transmitted false positions, as well.
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Russia
A company that produces antennas that resist jamming and other EW systems was struck by two drones in Cheboksary, almost a thousand kilometers from Ukraine. Production was suspended after the attack.
The Tambov Powder plant was attacked yet again. It was also attacked in November 2023, January 2024 and July 2024.
An electronics factory 80 km from Moscow was hit. It produces circuit boards and electronics for high-tech weapons.
Savasleyka airbase was hit and two aircraft were reportedly damaged.
Someone drained the coolant of a substation transformer in Kaliningrad and set it on fire. It shut down production at a military facility.
A chemical plant in Stavropol, 1000 km from Ukraine, was attacked. The plant produces ammonia and ammonium nitrate for fertilizer, explosives, ammo and rocket fuel. Also 1000 km from Ukraine was the Novokuybyshevsk Catalysts Plant, which produces chemicals used in refining oil.
Back on June 6th, Russia cut its central bank interest rate from 21% to 20%. It had been increasing the rate to fight inflation but stopped at 21% because the high cost of loans were stifling business investments. Consumer prices have been rising by 0.4% each month and food prices have been rising by 11% annually, but seasonal decreases in fruit and vegetable prices should slow that increase during June. Potato prices rose 92% last year. Poor crop yields caused them to rise by 166.5% in May. The average price per kilogram in May was 42.4 rubles compared to the global average of 15.5 rubles.
There are many reasons why the ratio of wounded to dead is so low for Russia. Refusing to let anyone retreat, including the wounded, is one of them and stories like this have been circulating for three years. The widespread lack of medical care is another reason. The Soviet hospital system was built for the surge of casualties during wartime. During a Russian reform movement, it was determined that the system was excessive during peace and was drastically reduced. Now that there is war, there is not enough capacity. There is also insufficient and sometimes defective basic medical supplies, such as tourniquets, and very little training on basic first aid.
A Russian doctor describes what happens to soldiers hit on the battlefield: A shell hits ten men. One dies instantly. Two more die within half an hour. Three could be saved with timely medical care, but that rarely happens now. Helicopter evacuations are no longer possible, and there are few safe routes out. Of the remaining four, three are immobilized and could survive with basic first aid and transport within five hours. But even that is usually not possible. They die too. The last two are walking wounded. They must make their way back to safety on their own, often walking five to ten kilometers under threat from drones. If they are lucky, they might be picked up by a vehicle.
The UK says that Russia suffered one million casualties since the open invasion began, including 250,000 dead. Over 111,000 of the dead have been documented by name from records. Almost 35,000 have been documented on video in the last 289 days. That is just the deaths that were captured on video, were not in vehicles, and were posted. In addition, Russian medics report that for every soldier that is killed on the battlefield, two wounded soldiers later die.
An Uzbek citizen left his country to find work in Russia in 2021. He said his boss asked him to carry a package that contained heroin.He was sentenced to 8.5 years in prison and joined Wagner in November 2022. After fighting and being wounded he was granted an early release back when Russia still did that. He was given Russian citizenship, 500,000 rubles and a couple of medals. He found a job in Russia but heard that Wagner vets were being forced back into the army so he returned to Uzbekistan in October 2024. He was arrested there and sentenced to five years in prison for serving as a mercenary in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Because of Operation Spider Web, Russia relocated many of its bombers. Of the 10 Tu-160s (3 at Olenya and 7 at Belaya), three were redeployed at Yelizovo in Kamchatka, two were moved to Anadyr in Chukotka and three landed in Borisoglebskoye in Tartarstan, including one undergoing modernization.
11 Tu-22M3 bombers from Olenya and 4 Tu-95MS bombers from Engels-2 went to Ukrainka, but then six Tu-22M3 bombers were moved to Engels-2. Four Tu-22M3s landed at Mozdok in North Ossetia.
It is possible that they will move their bombers more often to disrupt Ukrainian targeting for any potential future operations. Ukrainka was targeted during Spider Web but the truck carrying the drones was discovered before it could deploy the drones. Mozdok air base has been attacked by drones before.
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Ukraine
Russia launched 479 drones and decoy drones, 4 ballistic missiles, 14 cruise missiles and two anti-radar missiles. Of the 499 aerial weapons, Ukraine said 292 were shot down and 187 were jammed.
The 540th Anti-aircraft Missile Brigade had been working with the S-300 since 2022 and destroyed 55 cruise missiles, including five in a single engagement. They just transitioned to an IRIS-T air defense system and in their first engagement they shot down seven cruise missiles.
The Boeing building in Kyiv suffered heavy damage.
Ukraine uses the two Ka-32 helicopters it received from Portugal to fight fires in Kyiv after Russian drone and missile attacks.
Two Ukrainians working for the Russians were arrested. One was an unemployed woman that received money for recording the take offs and landings for aircraft and recorded battle damage assessments of enemy strikes. The other was a mobilized soldier that filmed combat sorties of Ukrainian aircraft.
In the last two weeks, Russia attacked Ukraine with 2,800 drones, 140 misiles and 3,000 guided bombs. An 80 second montage of images from last week’s attacks. An oil refinery and agricultural facilities were struck in Kremenchuk.
1,212 of the agreed upon 6,000 dead have been returned to Ukraine so far. In mid-February, Zelensky said 46,000 Ukrainians had been killed and 380,000 wounded. Two years ago, US officials estimated that 70,000 Ukrainians had been killed.
Art reflects the times.
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Diplomacy
Trump continues to reduce Putin’s isolation on the world stage by inviting Putin to join the talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Russia is Iran’s largest foreign investor. If a deal was reached and sanctions were theoretically lifted then Iran wouldn’t need to rely on Russia as heavily.
20,000 anti-drone missiles were diverted from Ukraine to Israel. Hegseth testified that they will be used to protect US personnel in the Middle East. No plans were announced to replace them in the future. Trump still has not approved Ukraine’s request to buy 10 Patriot systems as he continues to blame Ukraine for starting the war.
Trump doesn’t understand facts. Many of the people he appointed don’t understand facts. Decisions that impact the world are being made by people that don’t understand facts. In this instance Secretary of Defense Hegseth cannot answer basic questions from Congressman Vindman, who was a LtCol in the White House during Trump’s first term and overheard Trump extorting Zelensky, leading to Trump’s first impeachment.
Militaries are a function of economies and China’s economy is the second biggest in the world. It will become the largest economy in 10-15 years. The Pacific Ocean is one of the biggest theaters for submarine operations. To counter China, it would be politically and economically useful if Australia’s navy was modernized and had subs. This administration seems concerned that the US will not have enough subs of their own and are reconsidering selling five subs to Australia. The sales and support for Australia to build their own subs had been a joint Australia/UK/US (AUKUS) goal for future decades. Maintenance of US subs in Australia was also part of that plan, but Trump and his team don’t understand facts and they don’t play well with others. Decisions such as this undermines defenses and relations for years.
Canada will provide $2 billion in aid to Ukraine.
Because of Switzerland’s neutrality laws it prohibits the re-export of weapons containing more than 50% of Swiss-made components. They’ve blocked the transfer of arms and ammo to Ukraine and lost sales and market share over the last three years. After talking about it for a long time, the upper house of the parliament approved a proposal that allows the government to export weapons into a conflict zone. The lower house must approve the measure before it becomes law.
Poland’s president-elect Nawrocki is against Ukraine’s entry into the European Union and he cited unfair competition with Poland’s agriculture and logistics sector. He does support Ukrainian sovereignty in its fight with Russia.
Orban accuses his political opponent of representing Ukraine and the EU. In the meantime, Hungary's national security services uncovered ties between a member of Orban’s party and Russian intelligence.
Lithuania’s defense minister says that their armed forces need to include more women if they want to increase in size. Last April, the commander of the armed forces said there was no need to include women in compulsory service.
A Polish citizen was arrested for spying for Russia. Six Bulgarians also spying for Russia were sentenced in the UK.
Since 2022, 12 teenagers from Germany, Poland, Britain and Lithuania, and dozens of teenagers from Ukraine, have been arrested for aiding Russia with spying and sabotage. A Canadian teenager travelled to Istanbul, Moscow and then Denmark before moving to Poland because it was cheaper and easier to convert bitcoin into cash. He was paid by his Russian handler from a bitcoin wallet that processed $600 million over three years. A couple days after arriving in Warsaw, he was drunk and contacted the police to confess he was working for the FSB. Because of his age and cooperation, he received a 20-month sentence instead of the usual 5-year minimum.
Ukrainian intelligence agents monitored a Russian cargo ship in South Africa and told the US that weapons were being loaded into the ship at night with its Automatic Identification System turned off. The US announced the shipment publicly and asked South Africa to start practising its non-alignment policy. South Africa said they had no evidence and was disappointed with the public accusation.
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(…to be concluded in the Part 3…)
I wonder if the Aussies are asking why they abandoned France for this lot.
Here's me wondering what effect the withdrawal of THAAD batteries and other AD assets to help the chosen folks may have on the front line. Just as a shell shortage was triggered by "October 7th."