Don's Weekly, 15 July 2024: Part 2

by Donald Hill

(….continued from Part 1…)

***

Western Luhansk

After weeks of persistent bombardment of the rear of the Ukrainian lines, Russia conducted a series of massive bombardments of the ZSU positions in the Synkivka area, and to the west of that place. Shell, rockets, thermobaric rounds and airstrikes pounded Ukraine’s front line.

Still, the 18 Russian infantry attacks that followed only managed to take one treeline. Interestingly: the Russians did not use vehicles in these attacks.

Further south, most of the bombardments were confined to Ukraine’s rear areas. Russia again attacked with infantry, not vehicles: this was held in most of places, but the Russians did advanced nearly three kilometers to enter the village of Pishchane.

A Columbian volunteer serving with the 66th Mechanised Brigade, ZSU dons a gas mask after Russia uses chemical weapons in the Kreminna forest. There have been many reports of Russia using choking agents throughout the war. The fog visible on the video and the still attached below - is the cloud of chemical agents.

***

Bakhmut

Since taking the canal district of Chasiv Yar, the last week, the Russians were unable to continue their advance. I included a map below to show how the full weight of Russian bombardment is now focused on the city to the west of the canal. This part of the Chasiv Yar consists of single family homes and trees, like this. These buildings cannot withstand a bombardment like apartment buildings can. Because of the bombardments, Ukraine will have only a small number of personnel on the front lines. How long they can hold those lines will depend, in part, on any defensive positions they have dug throughout the city.

Russian infantry are using thermal cloaks to avoid detection by drones at night. The cloaks do have an effect, but they are more effective when stationary and when the soldier is entirely covered. On this video there are no explosions but you can see what the Ukrainian drone sees around Chasiv Yar.

***

Toretsk

…just a friendly, well-meant reminder (because so many seem to refuse to comprehend it…in part because the Russian ‘offensive’ on northern Kharkiv is such a handsome distraction): this was, is, and is going to remain the actual Russian aim for this year (as explained in one of assessments from few months ago)…

The last week, the Russians have been unable to advance towards Toretsk from the east or Niu York from the south, partly because of supporting fires from BTR’s and other APC’s, IFV’s and tanks. There are still very few Russian vehicles involved in the attack, although Russia did lose two tanks and two BMPs while Ukraine lost a T-64.

There is a report based on a Russia video stating that Russia activated a small tunnel to move underneath Ukrainian defenses and into Niu York itself. The front lines have been stable in this area for a couple of years so there was time to do so, but even so, Niu York was 5 km behind the front lines. Previous tunnels in Avdiivka have been under a kilometer and even the sewer used in Avdiivka was only 2.5 km long. Corroborating reports would be useful.

Six Russians take cover in a damaged house in Niu York which is then hit by a mortar. Russians are particularly happy taking part of the village as if it were an American city.

House to house fighting from a Ukrainian point of view.

***

Avdiivka-Pokrovsk

Of course, the Russian forces Group South is continuing its push in this area. After all, Toretsk is not the only aim: foremost, they know they can’t get Toretsk without first securing the flanks of the that area - and these flanks are Chasiv Yar in the north, and the area stretching from Avdiivka towards Pokrovsk in the south.

Correspondingly, the Russians did advance about 1500 meters to the west and south of Novopokrovske. A unit of former prisoners (this time from Ukrainian jails) serving with the 47th Mechanised Brigade counter-attacked near Novoselivka Persha to slow-down the Russian advance. They lost an M1 and Bradley in the fighting while Russia lost two tanks, eight APC/IFVs, two artillery pieces and maybe two dozens of trucks.

Nevertheless, the Russians reached the first house in Yasnobrodivka and waved a flag to declare it ‘liberated’. At this point in time, that’s not (yet) the case.

***

Mariinka

The Russians are also having enough troops to keep the Ukrainians in this area busy: indeed, to tie down ZSU units that could otherwise be re-deployed somewhere else. Correspondingly, Ukraine is still fighting a delaying action in Krasnohorivka.

On the positive side, Russian attacks out of Marinka towards Heorhiivka are being destroyed before they reach the village (or, in worst case: once they’re inside, like three weeks ago). The same is true of Russian attacks out of Novomykhailivka and all the fields south of it. The Russians were unable to advance but I added a map just to indicate the heavy losses Russia suffered in vehicles, many of which were loaded with infantry.

And another reminder: Pudding-fans abroad, and the Russians reading this might want to ignore or even deny such facts, but there is plentiful of evidence that it took the Russians ‘mere’ 5 regiments and 6 battalions, 6,5 months of time, and at least 320 vehicles knocked out to take Novomykhailivka.

***

(….to be continued…)