Don's Weekly, 15 January 2024: Part 2
(….continued from Part 1…)
Robotyne
Russia continues to attack. At the end of December they managed to gain 1500 meters along the ridge line between Novoprokopivka and Verbove. Since then, every time Russia gained 1-200 meters, Ukrainian counterattacks would regain the territory. Airstrikes still happen nearly every day but not as much as during Ukraine’s offensive.
Both sides use a lot of drones but for every hit there are several that are lost due to jamming. Still, it’s so dangerous for vehicles that since September Ukrainians don’t bring them up to the front lines. They park them far behind friendly lines and camouflage them. When bringing up supplies or rotating with units to give them a rest, soldiers have to walk 10 km to reach their positions. They’re warned before they take off that if they’re captured, they’ll be shot, as this has happened a few times in this sector. Russia also used drones to drop a form of tear gas on soldiers in bunkers and when they leave to escape the gas they’re killed with grenades dropped by drones. Russian drones have even been sent to play tapes of gunfire. Thinking they were under attack, the Ukrainians leave their bunkers and reveal their positions…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/08/world/europe/ukraine-troops-exhausted-defensive.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20240109
Vehicles are at high risk in this sector so Ukraine uses buggies that are hard to destroy. Two wounded personnel can be transported on stretchers on each side of the vehicle…
A pile of mines is destroyed by a Ukrainian drone…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1746546549042106857
Kherson
The battle lines didn’t change and Russia continues to lose personnel and equipment. Ukraine’s boat losses seem to be increasing, which is a concern because they keep the soldiers on the left bank supplied.
A Russian blogger has many complaints about the fighting around Krynky. The first complaint is that Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters fly over Krynky and hit targets in Russia’s rear because air defense has to wait for permission to fire. I’ve seen no evidence of Ukrainian aircraft flying behind Russian lines. The second is that Russian requests for artillery fire are often long delayed. I have heard many reports saying the same. He also says Russia has no electronic warfare equipment in the area - which isn’t true: Ukraine destroyed one Russian jammer last week and Ukrainian drone operators determine what frequency Russia is jamming before they launch drones. He says that the frequencies Ukraine uses to fly drones is well known. Actually, after Ukraine determines which frequencies are being jammed, they change the antennas on their drones so they can fly on different frequencies, just like Russia does. Or both sides use drones that can quickly change frequencies to largely avoid the effects of jamming. It is true that a lot of Ukrainian drones are flying over Russian troops. Finally, he says that Russia’s OODA loop for making decisions is slow, which is often true…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1744847184783114452/photo/1
In one day’s report Andrew Perpetua lists nine Ukrainian boats that were damaged or destroyed. This list is for all the videos that he viewed that day but the boats were from the Kherson sector and their losses are increasing because the night no longer provides Ukraine concealment - because of the night vision drones Russia began using. This does not mean that nine boats were hit on one day. It means videos of the boats being hit were released on that day. The trend of Ukrainian boats being hit is increasing, though, and since that is how the Ukrainians on the left bank receive their supplies and replacements, it’s the equivalent of attacking a bridge…
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1745282144635662634
Here is a video of one boat being hit at night on the Krynka river. The location is behind the main Ukrainian positions at Krynky. It’s about 600 meters from the small river to the forest edge south of Krynky…https://t.me/rusich_army/12661
The UK reports that the scarcity of Russian jamming devices near Krynky allows Ukrainian drones to destroy Russian vehicles and equipment with kamikaze drones and drones spotting for artillery…
Russian vehicles and personnel are targeted by Ukrainian drones…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1744763835385299009
More Ukrainian drone and artillery attacks…
https://twitter.com/region776/status/1744746126564261982
This is an excellent sequence that shows Ukrainian drones attacking a Russian self-propelled gun. As the drones approach the gun, the video feed from the drone is blocked. This could occur because of trees and terrain but that isn’t a factor here, so it’s jamming. The reconnaissance drone that captures the impacts isn’t affected by jamming, and the kamikaze drones are only affected when they enter a certain range from the gun, so it’s a jamming device on the vehicle with enough power to affect anyone within a certain range. Once the operator loses control the drone will only hit if it’s already on the correct trajectory. Three Ukrainian drones presumably missed. The fourth hits but does not kill the gun, but the fifth does start the fire. A drone bomber could drop munitions on the vehicle at an altitude outside the range of the vehicle’s jammer…
https://twitter.com/region776/status/1745029972845285738
Crimea
In December it was reported that two women killed 24 Russians by offering them poisoned food and vodka to thank them for all they’ve done…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/25019
Now there’s a report that says that the two women are 22 and 25 years old and shot it out with the FSB coming to arrest them, killing three FSB agents and wounding two. They escaped by car, which was later found abandoned…https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-saboteurs-poisoned-russian-soldiers-crimea-arsenic-rat-1859455
A Ukrainian spokesman for the Tavria group fighting in the southeast says that a platoon of 40 Russians deserted their front line positions with their weapons and tried to make their way to Crimea. The Russian authorities are hunting them down but there are no further details. The report also also said that 30 Russian soldiers had surrendered in the last four days, and more are refusing to fight because of the cold weather and unsanitary conditions in which a minor wound can be fatal…https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-platoon-soldiers-fled-front-line-tried-escape-crimea-ukraine-2024-1
Satellite images of the damages to a Russian base a couple weeks ago…
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1744842735230877962
Ukraine
The Ukrainian president and British PM visited the wounded in Kyiv…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1745909506352066914
The “I Want To Live” program provides a means for Russian soldiers in Ukraine to surrender. If they bring equipment with them they can receive payments of up to $1 million. The Russian helicopter pilot that brought his aircraft received $500,000. While the site has been visited 48 million times and the center handled 26,000 messages, only 220 Russians have surrendered by this program and another 1,000 requests are pending…https://www.businessinsider.com/more-than-220-russian-troops-have-surrendered-ukraine-via-hotline-2024-1?r=US&IR=T
On January 8, Ukraine intercepted all 8 drones and 18 of 51 missiles. 15,000 people in Kryvyi Rih lost power. Four people were killed. Fewer missiles were shot down because Russia launched more ballistic missiles. Drones and cruise missiles can be engaged by air burst air defense missiles. Ballistic missiles are larger and are engaged while already on their downward trajectory at very high speeds. Air bursts and shrapnel have little effect on them, they are only stopped by impact or “hit to kill” missiles. The only Ukrainian missile that is hit to kill is the Patriot PAC3, which has a range of 45 km. If the ballistic missile travels outside the range of the Patriot battery, or if more missiles are launched than a Patriot battery can engage, then the ballistic missile will not be shot down…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-missile-attacks-across-country-say-ukrainian-officials-2024-01-08/
Russia’s lost a lot more air defense systems than Ukraine, but here’s three Ukrainian systems that have been destroyed…
https://twitter.com/WarVehicle/status/1742489073246167134
The Territorial Defense brigades have been on the front lines but they have the last pick of equipment and have a lower social standing than the regular army brigades. The author of this post suggests that the army should be reorganized so that all the brigades have the same status…
https://twitter.com/south_fox_/status/1742591692543271422
A Russian drone captures a missile hitting a Ukrainian warehouse…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1746666968843796817
Russia
Russia has a lot of manpower but the more domestic manpower they use, the more political pressure forms at home. To alleviate that pressure to some small degree, they are happy to use foreign recruits. It doesn’t mean they treat them any better…https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/ck5xr76pnkgo
Against government wishes, about 200 Nepali citizens traveled to Russia to fight for them. After 10 were confirmed dead and 100 were believed missing, Nepal stopped issuing permits to work in Russia…https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nepal-halts-work-permits-russia-ukraine-after-soldiers-killed-2024-01-05/
As part of the ongoing sweeps to send migrant workers to Ukraine, a construction site was raided…https://twitter.com/BeRuzzia?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
One Russian felt it was immoral to fight in Ukraine and took measures to avoid mobilization…
https://twitter.com/BeRuzzia/status/1745837118897766757
Since the Wagner coup attempt, Russian war bloggers have been losing subscribers. The top state-run propaganda show, “An Evening with Solovyov”, dropped from 14th place with 3.6% of the viewer to 35th place and 2.1% of the viewers…https://t.me/mozhemobyasnit/16829
An English translation of the Telegram post… https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/18xpvyb/russian_war_bloggers_have_lost_a_lot_of_followers/?force_seo=1
Another translation of a Telegram post: “Arsons of military registration and enlistment offices replaced rallies. 2023 was the year of sharp radicalization of anti-war protest in Russia. The past year, unlike 2022, was marked by fewer peaceful protests. But the number of “direct actions” increased - military registration and enlistment offices were burned in the country, rails and relay cabinets were blown up, and military units were abandoned. The authorities responded with massive repression.
Arsons and explosions. Explosions on the railway began to sound more and more often in the country - rails were blown up in the Crimea, Buryatia, the border Bryansk region (twice), and the Ryazan region. Also in the Russian Federation, relay cabinets began to be set on fire en masse; the Ministry of Defense counted at least 10 such incidents. Minors are often put on trial for setting fire to relay cabinets: according to the Federal Penitentiary Service, 9 and 10 teenagers end up in pre-trial detention centers under terrorist charges. Arsons of military registration and enlistment offices and other administrative buildings have become more frequent in the country. People were often tricked into committing crimes.
Desertion. After mobilization, the number of military personnel increased sharply, and as a result, crimes against military service. Over the course of the year, the courts received more than 5 thousand cases of unauthorized abandonment, Mediazona calculated. Last year, there were 5 times fewer AWOL cases, 1001 cases, the year before - 615 cases.
Flower protest. Laying flowers at the monument to Lesya Ukrainka in Moscow as a sign of solidarity with Ukraine remains one of the few ways to express one’s position. Muscovites brought carnations there in January, April, October and December, each time Ukrainian civilians died due to Russian shells hitting residential buildings. In cities where there are no monuments to Ukrainian writers, people brought flowers and soft toys to the memorials of those killed in the war or victims of political repression.
The authorities are responding with criminal cases of “military fakes.” Almost all such cases end in long sentences (fortunately, many are done in absentia). Thus, Maxim Katz, Michael Naki, Dmitry Glukhovsky, Vladimir Milov, Marina Ovsyannikova and others received 7.8 or more years in absentia…https://t.me/mozhemobyasnit/16851
Alexander Rybin was a journalist that worked for pro-Russian media outlets and previously fought for pro-Russian forces in Luhansk. He became disillusioned with the war and started writing for Rabkor. The owner of that outlet was designated a foreign agent last year and arrested last July. Rybin just returned from Melitopol, which was largely destroyed in the spring of 2022 and is being rebuilt now. Rybin said on December 30th, “There is gigantic money here, there are gigantic opportunities for corruption.” He promised to release more details. A week later he was found dead by the side of the road. The authorities ruled out foul play, saying the 39-year-old died of cardiomyopathy…https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-journalist-alexander-rybin-found-dead-on-roadside-after-blasting-kremlin
The Soviet counter-intelligence organization SMERSH has returned not just to the occupied territories but to Russia…
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1742485949861269866
Belgorod was hit by a single explosion…
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1744478050190872978
The debris on a car resembles an S300 missile…
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1744452214792269865
A second Russian air defense missile landed in Belgorod…
https://twitter.com/BeRuzzia/status/1743104886818865511
Several municipalities in Russia are without heat due to decaying infrastructure and corruption. At Podolsk, 30 km from Moscow, 149,000 residents are without power. They relied on a boiler run by the Klimovsk Specialized Ammunition Plant. This privately owned plant is one of the largest producers of shells. Due to the heating failur it will be nationalized, meaning it will be seized from one owner and later sold to another owner…https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/10/total-disgrace-anger-frustration-as-mass-heating-failures-across-russia-leave-thousands-in-the-cold-a83676
There are plenty of videos showing burst heating pipes in the streets and geysers. I’ll just post this one…
https://twitter.com/BeRuzzia/status/1746072916108689489
There are lots of videos showing burst pipes in buildings. I’ll just post this one…
https://twitter.com/BeRuzzia/status/1745135466049855868
A week ago, an SU-34 was set on fire in Chelaybinsk…
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1742870546788855911
This week a 16-year-old in Daghestan was arrested for that act…https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-daghestan-teen-arson-attack-military-airport/32765659.htmli
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1744000869182435383
Russian imports of microchips, sensors and other components that can be used to build weapons has only been reduced by 10% since sanctions were imposed after the full scale invasion. Their missile production was 50 per month in 2022, 100 per month in mid-2023 and is now up to 115 per month. In the wreckage of the missiles that landed in Ukraine, officials found that 45% of the components came from China and 48% came from countries allied with Ukraine. Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are conduits for many components. AUS-Ukrainian research team recommends that the allies place greater responsibility on the companies to determine the end user of the components as well as holding third party countries responsible…https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-find-way-around-sanctions-battlefield-tech-report/
Here’s a breakdown of by nation of all the foreign components found in Russian missiles, drones and other equipment…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1745834680807505965
A warehouse in St. Petersburg burned. The post says there have been 50 warehouse fires in the last 5-6 months without any prosecution. It suggests that warehouses are half empty due to sanctions and it’s more profitable to burn them down and collect the insurance money…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1746099968069267674
The damage is probably $140 million. The unofficial report is arson and disconnected fire alarms. The official report is faulty wiring and fire alarms working…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1746166711194198316
This is a view from the inside. I didn’t hear a fire alarm. I couldn’t tell if there were water sprinklers at the end…
https://twitter.com/BeRuzzia/status/1746127211839545438
A few days before, the warehouse was raided for migrant workers to send them to Ukraine or be expelled, a practice that is spreading across Russia. Without cheap labor there may be more incentive to burn your own warehouse for the money…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1746090301624598827
There is little concern in Russia of minorities: new citizens from other countries and prisoners are sent to Ukraine. Russian prisons are turning off the heat to motivate prisoners to go to Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1746173365398769894
At least a ‘minority’ in Chechnya doesn’t seem upset when an army headquarters burns…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1746160809573552222
This report lists a series of issues, such as soldiers stealing from each other, packages from home never making it to soldiers, no time for wounds to heal, high mortality rates, laws that aren’t followed and general low morale. If someone dies and there is no body then the family isn’t compensated. One person said that no one fights for their country anymore, just the salary, but then it is said that they know they are defending their nation. These types of reports have existed for over a year but the bottom line is that the Russian keep attacking and dying…https://www.severreal.org/a/za-rodinu-seychas-nikto-ne-voyuet-zheny-voennyh-prosyat-otpustit-ih-domoy/32758424.html
This video explains the relationships between production of civilian and military goods, inflation, intrest rates, exchange rates and other factors that are putting pressure on the Russian economy…
(…to be concluded in the Part 3…)
Tom, there is already a photo of the damaged I’ll-22 (or the tail of it)
What do you think hit it? It looks as if too many shrapnels hit it.
The SMERSH signs were likely self-made to install fear in the population (something comparable to KKK in the US).