Don's Weekly, 15 April 2024: Part 4

(…continued from Part 3…)

US Aid

The Republican head of the House intelligence committee said that some members of the Republican party are parroting Russian propaganda. Internal Russian documents acquired by a European intelligence service show that Russian agents are writing social media posts, news articles and comments that are false and promote fear over the border, and amplify any divisions in cultural issues that are designed to fuel rage.

Manafort was an advisor to former Ukrainian President Yanukovych before he fled to Russia. He was Trump’s campaign manager in 2016 and after his conviction and cooperation with the FBI, he said that Russian support for Trump was based on an expectation that Trump would cut off support for Ukraine. After his visit with Trump, Orban said that Trump plans to cut off all aid to Ukraine and force them to accept a peace deal. Trump’s team denies that but the Trump organization is considering hiring Manafort again for the 2024 campaign. The original post with sources is located here.

A strong supporter of Trump, Marjorie Taylor Greene says Ukraine attacks Christians and applauds Russia…https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-applauds-russia-protecting-christianity-1888145

The British Defense Secretary met with Trump to no avail. US Speaker Johnson would not agree to meet with him…https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/09/david-cameron-trump-republicans-ukraine?CMP=share_btn_url

Jeff Jackson, the Democratic congressman, provided more from inside congress. Gen. Cavoli, commander of US forces in Europe, gave a briefing to congress and Jackson shared the unclassified portions.

Europe provides most of the tanks and fuel for Ukraine and the most important items the US could provide are artillery shells and air defense missiles. Without the air defense missiles for Ukraine, the Russian air force, in conjunction with the 10,000 artillery shells Russia fires every day, could provide enough firepower to break through Ukrainian defenses. Because of the air defense missile shortage, Ukraine is selecting which missile to engage and which to let pass, not unlike selecting which targets to engage when they were extremely low on artillery ammo.

The general also said that the Russian pattern of attacks matches their ship of artillery ammo, and they are definitely working towards a summer offensive.

He reassured the representatives that the equipment shipped is accounted for and that most of the money spent on weapons and ammo stays in the US and helps modernize the force as older equipment is sent. He doesn’t think it is likely that Russia will be kicked out of Ukraine at this point, but he would characterize victory as Ukraine remaining an independent state.

Regarding US aid, Jackson thinks the Speaker is bringing up as many bills as he can that MAGA is sponsoring with the (forlorn?) hope that they will be partially appeased when he brings up the aid bill. The original post is located here.

….and, when two US Senators attempted to get some of Iron Dome SAM-batteries to Ukraine (again, and that last year in June) … well… they’ve experienced a confrontation with reality…

***

Diplomacy

Right-wing members of Switzerland are leading an initiative to end the country’s participation in sanctions against Russia. The initiative collected 133,000 signatures so far, many from Geneva and the French-speaking regions. They said the initiative is a reaction to the Defense Minister’s “full steam ahead approach with NATO”…https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-politics/neutrality-initiative-submitted-with-almost-133000-signatures/75539252

A Chinese analyst believes that Russia will lose the war and be forced to withdraw from all occupied territory. He also believes that former Soviet republics will view Russia’s aggression as a threat to their sovereignty and leave the Russian sphere of influence for an alliance that provides security for them…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1779217033374089501

Japan tried to rally the US back to leadership on the world stage…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1778519211805188103

A Russian propagandist thinks the US request for Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries is ridiculous…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1778339335819125088

Macron’s rhetoric is particularly strong regarding Ukraine but, like other governments, life must go on. France sells air defense and radar systems to Serbia…

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1777729171172512177

France is building a powder plant in 2025. It will deliver 50 Hammer bombs a month and will increase the production of SCALP missiles but some number. And it will deliver 100 kamikaze drones this summer…

https://twitter.com/ArturRehi/status/1778475869566099710

A French citizen bought 3500 drones from a Finnish company for €2 million and sent them - to Russia…

https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1778009661012132222

A German company is developing drones for Ukraine rather than to spend the money with attempting to comply with the 67 pages of requirements for the German army…

https://twitter.com/fellafranca/status/1778065766450930108

The Netherlands will send another billion to Ukraine…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/netherlands-pledges-ukraine-4-bln-euros-military-support-through-2025-2024-04-12/

A Belgian MEP says that Europe has 100 Patriot systems and Ukraine needs 7 of them. His speech is here…https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-parliament-delays-approval-council-budget-press-military-aid-ukraine/

Europe doesn’t have 100, but they have quite a few…

https://twitter.com/Daractenus/status/1778328576015687982

Germany is sending one Patriot battery immediately…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1779209914017103978

Poland might send Soviet air defense missiles to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1778483789317984683

Ukraine may get two Patriot and a SAMP/T batteries in a few weeks…

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1778870836989948084

Wagner has control of the gold mines in Mali…

https://twitter.com/CartesDuMonde/status/1778392561146814860

***

Equipment

Greece might transfer 32 F-16s and 24 Mirage 2000s to Ukraine…https://unn.ua/en/news/greece-may-transfer-more-than-30-f-16-fighters-to-ukraine-media

While still in development, the DragonFire may be sent to Ukraine to aid its air defense…https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-68795603

Before 2022, 2400 Russian MT-LBs were in storage. 4-500 remain in storage and 100 of those are damaged…

https://twitter.com/MKot316/status/1779207757666697532

The Queen Hornet drone passed testing and is now operational. It has a 6 kg payload and can act as a carrier for FPV drones at longer ranges…

https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1779107005375951312

Israel has three Patriot systems. Recent cruise missile attacks on Israel means they will need replacements, which conflicts with Ukraine’s air defense requirements…https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/intl_cooperation/israel/

Bohdana is a girl’s name that means, “Given by God”, or “God’s Gift”. This is also the name of Ukraine’s first domestically produced 155 mm gun. The prototypes are still used in combat, but as they learn about the gun and how it drives and fires, adjustments are made to future guns that are produced.

It has a 30 km range and the crew says that in the second shot it can land within 10 meters of the target. While the Krab crew likened their gun to an Audi, this crew compared their gun to a Mercedes. Here is a 20 minute video of the crew firing, driving and cleaning the gun while talking about the war.

Over the last year, observations of Russian tank losses and tank storage sites, and the known production rate of new tanks lead many analysts to the same conclusions: The storage sites used refurbish tanks will likely be depleted by the end of 2025, the production of new tanks is only 1/5th of the rate of loss, and the number of tanks in the Russian army will rapidly decline in 2026…https://www.vishchun.com/post/pidrakhunok_ta_analiz_tankovoho_potentsialu_mosko

A state-owned French company is going to increase production of 155 mm shells to 100,000 and send 80,000 to Ukraine. The company is still cautious because demand could drop at any time and they want to remain profitable.…https://armyrecognition.com/defense_news_march_2024_global_security_army_industry/france_to_deliver_80000_155mm_artillery_shells_to_ukraine.html

***

“Mad Max” Revisited

Azov published a 23 minute video in which the soldiers tell how they recovered a T-72 tank near Terny that had multiple EW systems tied onto the tank with ropes. The tank had some difficulties turning because of barbed wire caught in the treads, but not so much that they couldn’t drive it. But when the tank was hit by a drone and the engine stalled, the crew panicked and fled the tank, only to be chased down and killed by drones.

The company commander decided there was an opportunity to capture the tank and the EW equipment. This was a three day operation to plan, reconnoiter the site, assess the situation and recover the tank. It involved drones, sappers, infantry, medics and mechanics. When the Russians fled the tank they left their electronic systems on which drained the batteries. The tank barrel was over the driver’s seat so they couldn’t enter it, but they took a gunner who was able to raise the barrel. While the tank used four batteries, three were brought to the site carried on stretchers by infantry and the mechanics manhandled them into place in confined quarters and under fire.

The ride back was not without issues. Wearing Night Vision Goggles (NVG), the driver was able to see the road clearly. Once they reached Terny, though, dust obscured the chemical lights that marked a huge crater that was created by glide bombs. Bomb craters have immobilized several armored vehicles on the battlefield and the T-72 drove straight into it, coming to a sudden stop and briefly knocking out the driver. When he regained consciousness, he drove the tank back and forth inside the crater and said he was able to escape its steep sides only because of the tank’s powerful engines. Even in the village they were shelled by the Russians. They were able to examine the ad hoc additions to the tank and other Russian engineering decisions in the rear area.

***

General Commentary on Combat in Ukraine

A Russian analyst says that Russian forces might take one or two treelines one day and lose one treeline the next day due to Ukrainian counter-attacks. He says that Russian losses are heavy but Ukraine also has losses. He says that even with a Russian success they cannot build and maintain momentum because of the lack of support of both firepower and manpower, so they just start over attacking the next day. He says that while Ukraine has a tactical crisis, it’s only because of Russian airpower and the lack of Ukrainian artillery. He sums it up by saying that it’s ‘no fun’ for either side…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1779094343573176785

Somewhere in Ukraine, a Russian is running a point of view video when he is hit by a Ukrainian drone…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1777655403481796616

Somewhere in Ukraine, a Russian glide bomb is shot down. It’s difficult to see the bomb in flight but they show it on the ground…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1777653002146316325

A 60-year-old air defense system (S-125 Neva/SA-3 Goa) takes out a Russian reconnaissance drone…

https://twitter.com/Bart1629825/status/1777361307538256275

Throughout Ukraine, six Russian air defense systems were hit…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1777694340011147534

There have been quite a few Russian soldiers that committed suicide while Ukrainian drones were overhead. This Russian soldier knew a Ukrainian drone was overhead and faked his suicide in an attempt to survive…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1777818234630090811

A drone descends into a T-90 before detonating…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1778434850048848051

A Ukrainian drone that reportedly fits into the truck bed of a Ford F150, is flown through a narrow entrance for a confined explosion…

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1777667875261591785

A drone drop endangers Russian tires…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1778749752181498365

In a four day period, the following Russian equipment was damaged or destroyed: 6 Russian SAM systems, 32 artillery systems, 40 tanks, 51 IFVs, 14 APCs, 52 trucks, 10 UTVs, 43x cars (mostly bukhankas), 9 EW systems, 2 comms systems, 2 engineering vehicles, and 1 boat…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1778253053637861717