Thanks Don & Tom. Is the sarcasm about Yermak (who has long ago pissed off everyone around him who is not called Zelensky) written by Tom or Don? No, I’m not going to tell him just comparing your writing styles ….
Don, thanks again. And again a question I asked 2-3 weeks ago. How long before the pickets around Konstantinivka (what a name) and Pokrovsknare closed?
Too many possibilities to predict with confidence, but you can measure from Tarasivka where it all started at the beginning of May.
-It's about 9 km towards Yablunivka, or about 900 meters per week average.
-It's also 9 km/900 meters per week to Popiv Yar to the north.
-It's 19 km to Razine or 1900 meters per week to the west.
It's 19 km from Razine to Kotlyne, with Pokrovsk in the middle. If the rate of advance remained steady, and we don't know that it would, it would mathematically take another ten weeks to cover that ground. But some time before that Ukraine would be compelled to withdraw.
It's 23 km between the western end of Yablunivka and Chasiv Yar. If the rate of advance remained steady, and we don't know that it would, it would mathematically take another 25 weeks to cover that ground, but Ukraine would be compelled to withdraw some time before than.
Another fine report with some very interesting details, which leads me to 2 questions @Don:
1) I found it extremly interesting what happened to the 12th richest person in the RF. Can it be interpreted that now political 'cannibalism' is reaching the top ranks?
2) Isn't Yermak now moving as ambassador to Washington DC?
In 2000, the oligarch Boris Berezovsky began criticizing Putin. By the end of the year, investigators asked him to come in for questioning and decided not to return home from a trip abroad. He transferred his shares to his friend (at the time) Roman Abramovich, who then gave control to the Kremlin.
In 2001, Khodorkovsky was the richest man in Russia and produced 20% of Russia's oil, but he started an anti-corruption group. In 2003, he was publically discussing corruption issues with Putin when Putin mentioned his concens about Khodorkovsky avoiding taxes. Later that year, Khodorkovsky and his partner were arrested.
By the way, Rustem Umerov became the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (секретар РНБО). The USA ambassador became Olha Stefanishyna. The rumors are that Yermak wanted Umerov to be the USA ambassador, but there was a significant resistance amongst the USA establishment (also pro-Ukraine) against Umerov as he was not seen to be the right person for this job (correctly so). At the end of the day, they say Zelenskiy made a decision in favor of Stefanishyna. Though to be honest, i do not see much difference. As long as Zelenskiy and Yermak (with their striking incompetence) are on top, the whole system underneath them with Umerov, Stefanishyna or XYZ will remain incompetent.
Thank you for the updates. You wrote about the Artic countries: «Russia continues to jam the Baltic Sea navigation signals and the Arctic states are preparing alternate navigation tools that don’t rely on GPS. Everything, just not doing something against the Russians. That could upset Pudding, you know?» Ok, as a citizen of an Artic country I need to know what we should do? Alternate navigation tools not relying on GÅS sounds like a good idea. That cannot be wrong. However what actions do you want the Artic countries to take? Donating more to Ukraine? Ok, I am with you. Blocking his shadow fleet? Again, ready for that? But GPS blocking? Please advise.
It's the same issue with the jamming from Kaliningrad in the Baltic Sea. It's dangerous to both aerial and naval navigation. It doesn't just tell you where you are, but where other air and naval craft are. Finnair cancelled flights to Estonia for a month because of it. Flights have been diverted or aborted. The loss of navigation can happen mid-flight.
Ground beacons are being used as an alternative navigation guide but they aren't as safe. NATO nations have warned that if the jamming causes a crash, they would respond by eliminating the jamming device. This is the kind of hybrid warfare Russia wants, to create uncertainty and chaos.
Russia needs to be confronted everywhere, with sanctions, shadow fleet enforcement, and zero reliance on Russian energy. The best thing you can do as an individual is support any governmental efforts to aid Ukraine and increase their own country's capabilities, and to donate to Ukraine. Many of the Ukrainian brigades receive 5% of their equipment through donations.
That’s a discussion for after the war… where have I heard that one before? Iran? India? Italy. (Not a war now… there was some country with I…) splendid idea. I am sure.
"Two German Skynex systems have been operating in Ukraine since September 2024. They use 35 mm ammo that explodes near the target and are effective up to 4000 meters. Both systems cost ‘mere’ €182 million and each engagement costs about €4000. But hey: that’s much, much less than a single surface-to-air missile of Western origin… "
The cost mentioned is a bit... excessive. Surely it doesn't include R&D costs as well?
I would expect the cost in serial production of these systems to be around €20 million or so?
Also, I suppose that the cost of each engagement can be brought down as well, after these munitions enter serial production?
) PTN PNH (Путин, пошёл на хуй): Putin, go fuck yourself!
This is an abbreviated version of “Putin” and the above “Poshol na khuy” and can be seen scrawled in graffiti.
I'd seen many different translations of this in different posts. Unsure, I was hoping for confirmation here, so thanks!
LOVE IT!
Thanks Don & Tom. Is the sarcasm about Yermak (who has long ago pissed off everyone around him who is not called Zelensky) written by Tom or Don? No, I’m not going to tell him just comparing your writing styles ….
When ever there are three asteriks like
***
That sometimes means that it's switching from Tom to Don or vice-versa
Don, thanks again. And again a question I asked 2-3 weeks ago. How long before the pickets around Konstantinivka (what a name) and Pokrovsknare closed?
Too many possibilities to predict with confidence, but you can measure from Tarasivka where it all started at the beginning of May.
-It's about 9 km towards Yablunivka, or about 900 meters per week average.
-It's also 9 km/900 meters per week to Popiv Yar to the north.
-It's 19 km to Razine or 1900 meters per week to the west.
It's 19 km from Razine to Kotlyne, with Pokrovsk in the middle. If the rate of advance remained steady, and we don't know that it would, it would mathematically take another ten weeks to cover that ground. But some time before that Ukraine would be compelled to withdraw.
It's 23 km between the western end of Yablunivka and Chasiv Yar. If the rate of advance remained steady, and we don't know that it would, it would mathematically take another 25 weeks to cover that ground, but Ukraine would be compelled to withdraw some time before than.
Another fine report with some very interesting details, which leads me to 2 questions @Don:
1) I found it extremly interesting what happened to the 12th richest person in the RF. Can it be interpreted that now political 'cannibalism' is reaching the top ranks?
2) Isn't Yermak now moving as ambassador to Washington DC?
In 2000, the oligarch Boris Berezovsky began criticizing Putin. By the end of the year, investigators asked him to come in for questioning and decided not to return home from a trip abroad. He transferred his shares to his friend (at the time) Roman Abramovich, who then gave control to the Kremlin.
In 2001, Khodorkovsky was the richest man in Russia and produced 20% of Russia's oil, but he started an anti-corruption group. In 2003, he was publically discussing corruption issues with Putin when Putin mentioned his concens about Khodorkovsky avoiding taxes. Later that year, Khodorkovsky and his partner were arrested.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1339692163738213
And, as mentioned, Putin's seized $50 billion in assests over the last three years.
Rich people are allowed to be rich in Russsia as long as it serves the interest of the state, and Putin is the state.
Yermak is the power behind the throne and the throne is in Kyiv. Current Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will be the new ambassador.
By the way, Rustem Umerov became the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (секретар РНБО). The USA ambassador became Olha Stefanishyna. The rumors are that Yermak wanted Umerov to be the USA ambassador, but there was a significant resistance amongst the USA establishment (also pro-Ukraine) against Umerov as he was not seen to be the right person for this job (correctly so). At the end of the day, they say Zelenskiy made a decision in favor of Stefanishyna. Though to be honest, i do not see much difference. As long as Zelenskiy and Yermak (with their striking incompetence) are on top, the whole system underneath them with Umerov, Stefanishyna or XYZ will remain incompetent.
Thank you for the updates. You wrote about the Artic countries: «Russia continues to jam the Baltic Sea navigation signals and the Arctic states are preparing alternate navigation tools that don’t rely on GPS. Everything, just not doing something against the Russians. That could upset Pudding, you know?» Ok, as a citizen of an Artic country I need to know what we should do? Alternate navigation tools not relying on GÅS sounds like a good idea. That cannot be wrong. However what actions do you want the Artic countries to take? Donating more to Ukraine? Ok, I am with you. Blocking his shadow fleet? Again, ready for that? But GPS blocking? Please advise.
It's the same issue with the jamming from Kaliningrad in the Baltic Sea. It's dangerous to both aerial and naval navigation. It doesn't just tell you where you are, but where other air and naval craft are. Finnair cancelled flights to Estonia for a month because of it. Flights have been diverted or aborted. The loss of navigation can happen mid-flight.
Ground beacons are being used as an alternative navigation guide but they aren't as safe. NATO nations have warned that if the jamming causes a crash, they would respond by eliminating the jamming device. This is the kind of hybrid warfare Russia wants, to create uncertainty and chaos.
Russia needs to be confronted everywhere, with sanctions, shadow fleet enforcement, and zero reliance on Russian energy. The best thing you can do as an individual is support any governmental efforts to aid Ukraine and increase their own country's capabilities, and to donate to Ukraine. Many of the Ukrainian brigades receive 5% of their equipment through donations.
doing that. Sill thinks it is a good idea to find alternatives, but agree on the idea of confrontation.
That’s a discussion for after the war… where have I heard that one before? Iran? India? Italy. (Not a war now… there was some country with I…) splendid idea. I am sure.
"Two German Skynex systems have been operating in Ukraine since September 2024. They use 35 mm ammo that explodes near the target and are effective up to 4000 meters. Both systems cost ‘mere’ €182 million and each engagement costs about €4000. But hey: that’s much, much less than a single surface-to-air missile of Western origin… "
The cost mentioned is a bit... excessive. Surely it doesn't include R&D costs as well?
I would expect the cost in serial production of these systems to be around €20 million or so?
Also, I suppose that the cost of each engagement can be brought down as well, after these munitions enter serial production?
Serial production does bring down costs but I don't have any data on that.