Don's Weekly, 13 January 2025: Part 1
by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)
Hello everybody!
Second weekly summary of this year is due and things remain largely the same. Down to few details. One of these is that, just for example, Zelensky should have - finally - received a report with most important details about what went wrong during the build-up and working-up of the 155th Mechanised Brigade, and - finally - banned the formation of new brigades.
Provided this is truth, all the newly-recruited and -trained ZSU troops should henceforth be used to refill existing units.
…all provided a) this is truth, of course, and b) Zelensky sticks to his word: over the last two months we’ve already seen what happened in regards of his ‘promise’ to permit tactical withdrawals whenever these are necessary…
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Kursk
There’s still much uproar regarding the deployment of North Korean troops to combat the ZSU salient in the Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation - which, meanwhile, appears to be truth (must admit, I’m still sceptical, but slowly starting to ‘buy’ this story). Particularly funny are all those who still can’t understand that - ‘even if’ - the Russian Federation and the ‘Democratic’ Republic of (North) Korea have a mutual defence pact. Therefore, any deployment of North Korean troops on the territory of the Russian Federation is perfectly legal.
The other point funny about this are Westerners who can’t understand the Russian (traditional) (mis)treatment of ethnic minorities: seems, people still do not understand that for centuries already, for the Russians there are actually no ethnic minorities, just some ‘shoddy people there’ that are ‘chauvinists’ or ‘extremist nationalists’ if they insist they’re something else, but ‘internationalists’ - and ‘good’ - as soon as they start declaring themselves for ‘Russians’. Which in turn means: it’s always the best to ‘convert’ everybody to a Russian…
In that sense:
Multiple waves of heavy Russian attacks pushed against the northwestern side of the bulge. The Russians suffered heavy casualties but entered Pogrebki and the outskirts of Malaya Loknya. The small Ukrainian attack into Berdin was pushed out after suffering killed and captured, and a Russian attack into Russkoe Porechnoe managed to take that village. A Russian attack into Makhnovka suffered very heavy losses and Ukraine launched a small counterattack towards Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
The 116th TDF Brigade hit targets around Viktorovka.
Near Obukhovka, various targets were attacked, including a bridgelayer.
The 47th Brigade engaged a lot of Russians heading down the road to Malaya Loknya: indeed, reportedly, this was the biggest Russian counterattack of the last week, and it was smashed.
Over the last few weeks, Russian forces have advanced over two kilometers northwest of Malaya Loknya. Here’s an 11 minute video of drones from the 22nd Brigade killing North Korean troops only two kilometers from the village. The Brigade then also cleared out troops in Nikolayevka, a village 500 mesters from Malaya Loknya. The 95th Air Assault Brigade drones attack a lot of Russians just one kilometer from Malaya Loknya. The 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade also participated in counterattacks and drone attacks. North Korean infantry still have not adapted to drones and mass before an attack.
The Russians entered Pogrebki from the west and a Marder engages them. A Marder is knocked out in the center of the village. The church seen at the 1:00 mark was the scene of both sides throwing hand grenades at each other.
Two kilometers west of Russkoe Porechnoe, the machine gun on the Stryker is out of ammo so the crew from the 80th Air Assault starts hunting North Koreans in the middle of a field with an assault rifle and the vehicle itself.
Ukraine entered Berdin and Novosotnitskii. Russian troops attacked Novosotnitskii and used a grenade launcher as a mortar. As the Ukrainians left, the Russians entered. They also conducted attacks in Berdin. A Russian drone’s fiber optic cable is caught on a tree, causing the drone to crash.
The 33rd Assault Battalion moved from Pokrovsk to Kursk and became the 33rd Assault Regiment. To celebrate, they killed 408 Russians and North Koreans that tried to take Makhnovka, including engaging the enemy with ATGMs and cannon fire from Marders. Then attacked out of Makhnovka, clearing anti-tank mines along the way. 500 meters later, a Ukrainian soldier throws a grenade in a house. In the same area they evacuate a casualty. The Ukrainian advance was limited to about 700 meters.
On the roads leading to Makhnovka, Russian infantry and cars are attacked by drones in Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Ulanok. Two kilometers south of Ulanok, a Russian BM-21 is destroyed by a drone.
Russia conducted UMPK strikes on Sudzha and Nikolskii (south of Malaya Loknya).
13 km east of Sudzha, Russians servicing equipment in a tower are caught be drones and have nowhere to run.
A Russian assault group moves into position. Some of them are likely in the last hours of their lives.
The December 30th missile attack on the 810th brigade headquarters killed the Chief of Staff of the 76th Division and its communications and engineer battalion commanders.
A Russian airstrike 15 km west of Tyotkino inside Ukraine.
***
Kharkiv
The Russians continue to send troops into the wasteland of northern Vovchansk.
West of the wasteland, and across the river, the Russians target a Ukrainian-held building with artillery and drones.
***
Kupiansk
Ukrainian vehicles north of Dvorichna are hit by drones. The village itself is hit by a thermobaric bombardment. These attacks facilitated an advance of up to 1000 meters - which is a ‘lot’ by measurments of this war (and that already since the onset of the Battle of Bakhmut, back in June-July 2022). The Russians crossed the Oskil river by Zapadne over six weeks ago and slightly expanded the crossing a month ago. Since Ukraine was incapable of launching a counter attack the Russians were able to build up their forces and this week advanced over two kilometers.
Despite so many of their assaults in the Kupiansk sector, the Russians were unable to advance. The 92nd Brigade drones stop another Russian attack.
A lot of Russians and their vehicles were hit 4 km west of Lozova.
A Russian airstrike on Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi.
Ukrainian drones armed with shotguns not only engage drones, they hunt Russian infantry, too.
There are three companies in the Achilles drone unit and this is an article about the company in the Kupiansk sector. Here is an accompanying 11-minute video and includes a duel with one Russian that shot down three drones, an extraordinary feat. Some of the details include the ability to expend two or more drones on a single Russian infantryman as well as vehicles. An operator says that more drones and artillery is available but there’s not enough infantry. That problem becomes worse when bad weather prevents drones from detecting Russian movements. There are some sections of the battlefield that the Russians regularly attack through. Sometimes the drone operators have a difficult time telling the difference between a dead body and a Russian pretending to be dead.
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Terny
After failing to cross the causeway from Terny to Ivanivka last week, Russia was able to succeed this week. Since Ukraine is low on infantry throughout the theater, and since they are unable to manage their manpower to form reserves for counter attacks, or to bring reinforcements to sectors under pressure, this excellent defensive terrain feature has been breached.
Five drones are expended on a Russian armored vehicle. Fiber optic drones take out a Ukrainian tank inside Terny.
Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions. Shelters are good for protection against artillery and drones, but if enemy infantry can walk up to the position then it becomes a trap. Here are similar situations in the same sector but the Ukrainians are proactive and leave the shelter to engage nearby Russians.
Behind Makiivka: if a shelter doesn’t protect from an explosion, then it enhances an explosion.
***
Siversk
The Russians claim this house in Verknokamianske was occupied by Ukrainian drone operators. More shelling in the same village.
The larger Russian reconnaissance drone is destroyed in the distance. The smaller Ukrainian drone can’t be seen. Another drone shootdown with a closer view.
10 km southeast of Spirne, a BM-21 rocket launcher is destroyed by a Ukrainian drone.
A Russian air defense system is attacked by GMLRS 21 km behind the lines.
***
Bakhmut
The Russians were able to move more troops into the city because fog hampered Ukrainian drones, but when the weather cleared up, drones were able to operate freely, as this Russian drone provides fire support. The fight for the refractory plant continues. Thermobaric rounds impact in the center of Chasiv Yar.
This is the site of some of the heaviest fighting in Chasiv Yar: the refractory plant is the long building in the back, and part of the same is under the Russian control for two days now. Here’s a video-tour of the town.
(…to be continued…)
The Russians are now turning the northern flank of Pokrovsk. This will cut Pokrovsk supply line and support operations out of Toretsk.
Thanks Don&Tom. What are your views on the air strikes in Russia yesterday/early morning? While it’s true that ZSU/HUR lacks focus in them, it was also true that they lacked scale and pace as well.
For several days, it seems that drone strikes have scaled up. Is it sustainable? Is it the result of more drones or just fewer Russian air defence systems? (As Kovalenko argues)