Don's Weekly, 12 November 2024: Part 1

by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)

Hello everybody!

Following a ‘few days off’, we are back with next of Don’s weekly reviews.

Where one cannot but conclude that next to nothing has changed in the last 7-8 days: the Russians are keeping Ukraine under massive pressure through streaming Shaheds all over the country, every night. These are regularly targeting not only the power supply system, air bases, air defences, suspected arms- and ammunition depots - but also apartment buildings. Because Putin and his Russians are certain that Ukrainians are brotherly people, just a bit confused by Nazi propaganda, and that killing them in big numbers is the only way of making them free from the puppet regime imposed in a CIA-instigated coup of 2014.

Of course, it is for exactly the same reasons that the Russian army continues its all-out attacks in the Donbas, including pulverising one village after the other: nothing else but pure, distilled brotherly love.

On the Ukrainian side… ah yes, there are news. Rather amazingly, in the light of facing growing critique for its mishandling of the ZSU, on 6 November the GenStab-U has issued a lame excuse for its obsession with creating new brigades instead of re-building and/or bolstering existing ones. Essentially, its spokesman Dmytro Lykhoviy said this is (quote), ‘the only way’ to counter the massive Russian advantage in troop numbers; that it is impossible to ‘properly align combat units and restore forces…during active hostilities’, and that ‘new brigades are the best way to increase the numbers and fighting capacity of the Ukrainian Army under prevailing conditions’.

Aha… With other words, the super-smart generals in Kyiv find that it is far better to continue appointing their incompetent buddies in command of inexperienced units; and even more importantly, to further weaken existing brigades already weakened by combat attrition, in order to draw experienced cadre necessary to combine with recently mobilised and/or re-purposed but inexperienced troops and create new, largely ineffective units….

Furthermore, the Buddies have concluded it’s far better to - just for example - waste such precious troops like engineers specialised in constructing pontoon bridges to serve as infantry, or mortar crews. And, best of all, while the GenStab-U admits this would be necessary, it finds it impossible to withdraw exhausted brigades from the line to offer them an opportunity to re-build - while it continues its practice of destroying cohesion of existing brigades by ripping away different of their battalions to patch up the lines in entirely different sectors.

As logical and as obvious as that 1 + 1 = 17…

How? You mean, 1 + 1 = 2?

Oh, but sure! As next, you’re also going to explain that you know better than the GenStab-U?!?

How cute.

Well, dear reader: it is about the time to face the obvious. No, you do not know better. No, you do change the winning team (and that as often as possible). And, no: 1 + 1 is no 2.

Not only because we are living at the times when lying and denying the obvious is the best evidence for somebody’s natural-born suitability for leading a nation as a president or a chancellor, or leading armed forces as a general in the armed forces, but: the GenStab-U remains based on best traditions of the Soviet military arts. Therefore, it is in possession of a super-secret mathematics formula along which 1 + 1 = 17. Or 3. Or 61.

Depending on the weather and the time of the day.

It’s a formula developed by the same Ukrainian scientists that could make a nuclear bomb in a matter of weeks; the same people renowned for easily converting plumb into gold; and the same people that are finding it impossible to do the same like, say, the government of Chad, or the leadership of that genocidal gang called the ‘Rapid Support Forces’ in the Sudan, and call the next car retailer to place an order for 10,000 SUVs, so the ZSU wouldn’t be constantly short on these and its troops getting killed while trying to save unsuitable civilian cars…

….word is, even the other faithful followers of the Soviet military art - the Russians - are so stunned by this performance, it is the principal reason why are they massacring civilians all over Ukraine for 2,5 years meanwhile: according to similarly secret formulas developed by the Keystone Cops in Moscow it is so that 1 Shahed or 1 UMPK glide bomb = 1 Ukrainian killed.

…regardless where in Ukraine, Belarus or the Russian Federation that bomb hits the ground…

Hand on heart: isn’t that as simple as that 1 + 1 = 17?

Now you do know better.

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Kursk

Following weeks of hauling whatever troops it could scratch together, Russia has assembled 50,000 combatants in the Kurks Oblast. Sure, the Keystone Cops have found a way to stop re-deploying units from the frontlines inside Ukraine: correspondingly, they have not pulled troops from other sectors in the last month. Still, that is 50,000 troops that aren’t available for other sectors. Reportedly, the 11,000 troops of the XI Corps of the North Korean army are part of that mix. Reportedly, they are involved in a new counteroffensive that’s run since 8 November - in form of usual grinding assaults. At least there are fewer reports about the VKS flying air strikes in support of that operation: either the bad weather is hampering operations of the most modern air force in this solar system, or is preventing troops from capturing and releasing related videos…

One way or the other: many of videos released by both sides are ‘smudged’ - usually by droplets of rain.

Despite heavy Russian losses, the number of Russian troops did have an impact and their biggest advance saw them take Pogrebki in the north. Russian vehicles and infantry were destroyed 300 meters to the north of the village and 1500 meters south of the village, as well as 1500 meters to the east of the village and 5 kilometers to the west of the village. Reports indicate that the primary units involved are Ukraine’s 95th Air Assault Brigade (role: defending) and Russia’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (role: suffering heavy casualties in the attack).

A Russian MRAP is destroyed in the assault on Pogrebki. Five kilometers west of the village, a Russian BTR fires on Ukrainian positions in support of a 1500 meter advance. The report says Russia’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade lost ten vehicles, 30 killed and a few dozen wounded in that attack. Mind that is is common for both sides to only publish videos of their successes. Here are four minutes of the 95th Air Assault Brigade’s successes 400 meters north and 1500 meters south of Pogrebki. It’s clear that Russian vehicles were able to drive through the village. What isn’t clear is what territory was retained by either side.

1500 meters east of Pogrebki, a Russian BMP drives past a burning Ukrainian MRAP and is within 200 meters of three other destroyed Russian vehicles. There are four mines placed across the road in plain sight to the drone. The mines aren’t dug in. When the driver and vehicle commander are inside their vehicle with their hatches closed it is harder for them to see through their periscopes. Still, they should have seen these mines. The vehicle detonated two of them by running over them and the other two detonated because of the subsequent blasts. Already traveling at 50+ kph, the combined blasts sends the BMP airborne with parts flying off before it lands on its roof.

On the western side, Russia launched another assault down the road from Novoivanovka to Malaya Loknya. This sector is occupied by Ukraine’s 47th Brigade, and like the previous attempts, the attack ended in failure. The 47th then counterattacked Novoivanovka from the east. In this video, two Bradleys attack a section of forest where Russian infantry were recently dismounted from armored vehicles. One Bradley was struck by an RPG and the other was hit by a drone. They shrugged those hits off to continue firing and eventually unloading Ukrainian infantry. After unloading the infantry, they continued to provide fire support.

The tracks of the 27 ton Bradley generate enough friction with the ground that you can see the heat trail. The residual heat from the drone attack can still be seen over 30 seconds after the event.

The first Bradley squad (to the right in the video) dismounted and moved left before being directed by the squad leader to the Russian positions to the north. From the infantryman’s perspective in the back of the Bradley, they see nothing until the ramp drops and they emerge. It was natural that they would move towards the first section of woods that they saw. The track commander needs to be very clear with his communication before the infantry in the rear dismounts, and hand signals (pointing) help. Also, they were dropped off at some distance from the woods, which meant that the infantry would have to travel further in the open before reaching the cover of woods. An additional benefit of dropping the infantry off closer to the woodline is that they would be more likely to head straight into the nearest woods, even if communication wasn’t clear.

The second Bradley squad does a pretty good job of dismounting and assaulting the enemy. (See images below). The first man leaving the track runs to the woodline to provide flank security and the other five dismounts are roughly on line oriented towards the enemy, making sure that a friendly soldier isn’t between them and a potential enemy target.

An even better method would have been for the Bradley to drop them off closer to the woods so they wouldn’t have to run as far to reach cover. One or two men would still need to provide security oriented to the left and top, especially since this is a new situation being developed and they’re still trying to determine enemy positions with certainty. The rest of the squad should be oriented towards the known enemy position. Notice that in the second situation both the Ukrainians and Russians have the benefit of cover from the woods. In the first situation, five of the six Ukrainians are in the open while engaging the Russians in cover.

The 47th has a proven record of successful assaults but there is always room for improvement and sometimes a detail might save a friendly life or provide an edge in destroying the enemy.

One kilometer south of Novoivanovka, the 225th Assault Battalion destroyed a BMP with a drone.

Southwest of the battle is Darino, which Russia hit with airstrikes and followed with an infantry assault. This video shows Russian drones and infantry clearing out any remaining Ukrainian infantry. An open door lets a Russian fiber-optic drone destroy an immobilized and abandoned armored transport at the northern edge of the village.

A Russian infantry advance towards Novy Put is met with artillery.

Ukraine claims that Russia lost 54 tanks, 276 armored vehicles and 112 mortars, artillery and MLRS. An independent observer reports that as of November 4th, Ukraine lost 307 pieces of equipment in Kursk (including vehicles, radars, jammers, etc.) and Russia lost 292. Russian losses have been heavier since their counter attack. Last week (from November 4th) they lost 43 pieces of equipment and Ukraine lost 21 pieces of equipment.

A Ukrainian commander of an assault platoon somewhere in Kursk describes his situation.

Early during the Russian all-out invasion of Ukraine, back in 2022, it was common to see photos and/or videos of Ukrainian tractors towing captured Russian armored vehicles. The Russians are now upset that a Ukrainian armored vehicle is towing a Russian tractor.

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(…to be continued…)