Don's Weekly, 12 May 2025: Part 3
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 2…)
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Diplomacy
European leaders told Putin that he needs to agree to a 30-day ceasefire on Monday or face ‘massive sanctions’. Earlier, Trump sent the same message and a bi-partisan senate bill is standing by for a vote with enough backing to overcome a MAGA senator filibuster. As a result, Putin announced in the middle of the night that he would hold talks with Ukraine next week with Eerdogan as the mediator. Ukraine and its allies insist on a ceasefire before negotiations. Putin then responded with meaningless words as an attempt at delay. Zelensky has publically said he is expecting a ceasefire and on Thursday will wait for Putin in Turkey.
An international coalition of over 40 members agreed to establish the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine within the Council of Europe.
The SBU arrested two Ukrainian citizens that were spying for Hungary. Among other things, they were trying to determine how people living in Zakarpattia would feel if a Hungarian peacekeeping contingent was sent to the province, in which 12-13% speak Hungarian. They were also gathering information on Ukrainian military assets. With an army of 28,000, Hungary’s military operations are quite limited, but Russia has an active interest in such information. Soon after the announcement, Hungary expelled two Ukrainian diplomats for spying. That same day, Ukraine expelled two Hungarian diplomats in retaliation.
Indifferent to their own crimes, the Russians were offended by a pair of socks.
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Equipment
Germany is sending 125 HIMARS rockets and 100 Patriot missiles to Ukraine with the approval of the US.
The Norwegian company that produces NASAMS air defense systems is establishing a factory in Ukraine focused on mass missile production.
In 2022, the shortage of air defense systems led the UK to take a Supercat vehicle, an air-to-air missile and launch rails from decommissioned Hawk, Jaguar, and Tornado aircraft, and combine the parts into an inexpensive FrankenSAM air defense system, also known as the Raven. Eight have been sent to Ukraine and five more are in the process of being sent. In 400 engagements it’s had a success rate of over 70%. The components and missiles were all retired from British service. Instead of being destroyed, they are shooting down Russian missiles and drones. When more air-to-air missiles are retired due to age, they will also be sent to Ukraine.
Lithuania is considering producing Magura naval drones and sending half the production to Ukraine.
It was reported earlier that European nations were planning on providing money for Ukraine to build weapons instead of building the weapons and sending them to Ukraine. This would increase the strength of Ukrainian defense industries and its economy and reduce logistical delays. It’s now being reported that weapons produced in Ukraine cost half as much as weapons produced elsewhere: therefore, the same amount of money can buy twice as much equipment.
Though indirectly, this current claim of "bone-crushing sanctions" supports your point about Ukrainian government mismanagement. If I was a soldier in the field I'd be "WTF! You don't have bone-crushing sanctions by now? What the fuck-all have you been doing?"
What makes me nuts is the pro-Ukrainian YouTubers repeat it like it's a thing--"bone crushing sanctions." If France, Poland, Germany and the UK have something else behind the scenes those experts should tell us. It's bad enough the media treats readers like idiots.
"Dear Ukrainians, you won't die for lack of bone-crushing sanctions." I asked on the FB group. What am I missing? Do they have Putin in a tight spot or not? What's going on?
Excellent reporting as always, very much appreciated 👍