Don's Weekly, 12 February 2024: Part 3

(….continued from Part 2…)

Ukraine

After a period of rumors and - finally - a confirmation from Zelensky, General Zaluzhny was replaced by General Oleksandr Syrskyi. The results of this decision will become known as time goes by. Stefan Korshak provides some insight… https://substack.com/home/post/p-141559173?source=queue

Within that article are his profiles of the officers mentioned by Zelensky…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/27856

Stefan Korshak also reported seeing a cruise missile hit an apartment building and estimated the warhead to be within the 100-1000 kg range…

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1755121102299303948

Another Shahed drone was safely landed after Ukrainian EW systems took control of it…https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3kkxuabifwq2y

44 of 64 drones and missiles were shot down on February 7th…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1755141303032070164

A Shahed drone hit an oil storage tank Kharkiv. Within five minutes, a river of burning diesel ran down a residential street. Within ten minutes, all the houses were engulfed in fire. One family had time to drive away with their dog. Others had to escape through their backyards. An elderly couple and parents with three young children were trapped in their homes. Three others were injured and 50 escaped unharmed but lost their homes…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/10/world/russia-drone-strike-kharkiv-ukraine.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20240211&instance_id=114894&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=157899&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

Ukraine already had a demographic problem before Russia’s full invasion. During the economic depression of the 1990s, Ukraine was one of the nations with a very low birth rate. As a result, they have three times the number of men in their 40s than they do in their 20s. Some units have been on the front line for two years. A larger army would make it possible for more units to rotate off the front lines, but it is difficult for men in their 40s and 50s to do the job of infantrymen and other physical jobs. Men can be drafted from 27 to 60 and there is legislation to lower that to 25, as well as to make it more difficult to be excused from military service, but the controversial bill is moving through the parliament slowly. It also has a provision that allows soldiers that have served three years to leave the army. I’ve seen no reports on the expected impact of that provision 18 months from now.

General Syrsky said he wanted a new approach to recruiting and mobilization but gave no details. He also said he wanted to prioritize the life and health of servicemen and provide a better balance between front line duties and training…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/11/world/europe/ukraine-soldier-draft.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20240211&instance_id=114894&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=157899&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

100 Ukrainian prisoners returned home this week…https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3kkwpp26vbw2h

***

Russia

On January 8th, explosives were attached to oil tank cars in Nizhny Tagil in the Sverdlovsk region. January 9th, oil storage tanks were hit in the Oryol region. January 19th, an oil storage unit was hit in Klintsy, Bryansk region and burned for two days. January 21st, the export terminal in Ust-Luga in the Leningrad region was hit. January 24th, the Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar region was hit. It’s one of the ten largest refineries and the only one on the Black Sea coast. On February 9th, the Ilsky and Afipsky refineries in the Krasnodar Territory were hit, 20 km from each other. Because of the attacks, the January gasoline exports fell by 37% and diesel exports fell by 23%…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1753800895496618217

Many of Russia’s oil refineries are within range of Ukrainian drones…

https://twitter.com/CollinFisher/status/1753913011230880135

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1755896474389413928

The issue isn’t that Tucker Carlson was talking to Putin. Many serious journalists (no entertainers like Carlson) wanted to talk to Putin. The issue is that Putin was willing to talk to Carlson, no doubt because Carlson has said that he’s pulling for Russia. Here’s one summary of Putin’s two hour monologue…

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1755747550542368894

In Izhevsk there is a plant that produces ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles. After a tremendous explosion near a training ground, there is one theory that the explosion is connected to the testing of the missile engines…https://en.defence-ua.com/news/rowerful_explosion_rang_out_near_izhevsk_close_to_russias_important_military_enterprise_manufacturing_icbms-9443.html

Two refineries in Krasnodar were hit by drones. Previous to this attack, refineries in Yaroslavl, Tuapse, and the Ust-Luga oil terminal was also attacked…https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/droni-sbu-atakuvali-dva-naftopererobni-zavodi-1707471698.html

***

Diplomacy

After demanding that an immigration bill be passed before any aid to Ukraine and Israel, the GOP-led House attached the three issues into a single bill. The Senate then created a bi-partisan solution on immigration. Trump let it be known that he doesn’t want a solution on immigration because he was going to use it to blame Biden in his run for the presidency. The House then said that the bill would be dead on arrival if it reached them, but 60 votes were needed in the Senate and the GOP senators voted against it.

The House then tried to pass a stand-alone bill to aid Israel but it failed.

The Senate then passed an aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with a vote of 67 for and 22 against, with 17 Republicans joining the Democrats. It would provide $60 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel. The bill still will take several days and another procedural vote before reaching the House. If voted on in the House, it is likely to pass, but the MAGA camp from which the House Speaker came does not want to give any more aid to Ukraine. Biden asked for this bill in October. It’s been six weeks since the last of the US funds were spent. The US provided half the military aid to Ukraine until they didn’t…https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/08/senate-ukraine-israel-aid-border-deal/

A Republican congressman visiting Ukraine said the US will approve funding for Ukraine. He didn’t provide a timeline. In the meantime, Ukrainians are dying…https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3kkz6lnmlhl2f

A Republican senator on the same trip voted against Ukrainian aid, apparently…

https://twitter.com/paigeinkansas/status/1756069742664667208

The historian Heather Cox Richardson discusses the limited pushback in the GOP against MAGA by slowly advancing an aid bill to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. She highlights the changing US role in world politics, and she discusses Trump’s past relationship to Russia and future plans. His campaign website calls for “fundamentally reevaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission.” In a campaign speech on Saturday, he said that the US would not aid any NATO country that was attacked if they were “delinquent”, trying to characterize the spending goals as a common fund rather than the 2% threshold of each nation’s GDP. Regarding those countries, he said, “In fact, I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want.”

For additional details, please check: Letters from an American, February 10, 2024

Poland’s leader recognizes how much the GOP has changed. Eastern Europe recognizes Reagan’s role in standing up to the Soviet Union…

https://bsky.app/

Ukrainian special forces have been operating against Wagner forces in Sudan for months now. This is an interrogation after a vehicle was ambushed…

Orban promised to hold a vote in Hungary at the earliest opportunity to approve Sweden joining NATO. Then his party boycotted the vote so it couldn’t happen. Now Hungary says the vote won’t happen until Sweden comes to Hungary for a bilateral meeting, something Sweden says is uneccesary…https://www.politico.eu/article/hungarys-ruling-party-balks-at-swedish-nato-vote/

The Italian prime minister was a key figure in convincing Orban to stop blocking aid to Ukraine. She was sympathetic to his concerns as a fellow right-wing leader and has been solid in her support of Ukraine…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/world/europe/italy-meloni-orban-ukraine-funding.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20240207&instance_id=114529&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=157515&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

Polish farmers are once again making it difficult for traffic on their border with Ukraine. In the meantime, Ukrainians are dying…https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3kky6r47yp22j

When Russia paid Iran for drones in 2022 the ruble was on a downward trajectory and Russia was low on foreign cash so they paid in gold…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1754901906323808469

For a minute, some people thought that a Soviet tank that invaded Hungary in 1956 met its end in Ukraine. It turns out that they were different tanks, but I’m sure you can detect a pattern of Soviet/Russian diplomacy by now…

https://twitter.com/CollinFisher/status/1756066362064318771

(Note: turret numbers on Soviet and Russian tanks were - and still are - applied depending on their assignment to a tank platoon, tank company and tank battalion. Therefore, they are not related to the individual vehicle. Over the 60 years of service history of T-54/55-series, there must’ve been hundreds of them wearing the turret number ‘230’: usually, this stands for ‘commander’s tank in the 3rd Platoon of the 2nd Company’.)

(….to be continued…)