Don's Weekly, 12 February 2024: Part 2
(….continued from Part 1…)
Avdiivka
Ukrainian commanders say Russia fires five times as many artillery rounds as Ukraine does. Ukraine’s guns have 5-7 rounds they can fire each day. Because of that they no longer fire rounds at one or two soldiers because they have to save them for larger groups.
Russia hit the city with an average of 150 MPK/UMPK bombs a week this last month. This last week Russia dropped 50 in one day. They aren’t very accurate but they do a lot of damage wherever they land.
The Russian drone unit that was so effective at eroding Ukrainian defenses at Marinka moved to Avdiivka a month ago and began working on the defenses east of the coke plant. A month before this drone team arrived, Russia gained a small foothold in the houses on either side of the ponds but were stuck there. After the drone team arrived Russia was able to advance 250 m on the east side of the pond one week, then 100 m on the west side of the pond the next week. There were no advances for two weeks, then another 300 m advance east of the ponds at the beginning of February and within three days Ukrainian defenses in that sector fell apart. Russian forces advanced as far as 2500 m into northern Avdiivka and as much as 1500 m wide in some places. They secured the fields to the east of the ponds and advanced 750 m southwest of Kamianka.
On top of that, Russia reclaimed the restaurant and is once again in the very southern neighborhood of the city. There was even a 400 and 700 m advance down two tree-lines leading out of Opytne.
Given the lack of artillery ammo and that some companies of the Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade are under 33% strength, this is not surprising. Drones are vital, but you need all your weapons to be effective. Still, there are so many Ukrainian drones in the air that some Russians are ignoring the warnings because they are constant.
Against that backdrop, Zelensky changed his commander-in-chief and Syrsky promised him that he will defend Avdiivka. To that end, the 3rd Assault Brigade arrived in the city last week, a move that was underway well before the change of command. Most of you will remember the brigade for spearheading the assault on the southern flank of Bakhmut, resulting in a 10 km advance over five months and a lot of Russian casualties. They’ve had three months of rest, refit and training, and while there is a shortage of 155mm ammo, the brigade brought a lot of 120mm ammo for their mortars. Their immediate task will be to push the Russians back to the slagheap and protect Avdiivka’s main supply route. It is not an easy task but Russia’s supply route to the north is only one kilometer wide through forest and the remnants of houses.
Some of the assaulting Russians were stopped and others were taken prisoner…https://t.me/ButusovPlus/7891
A Ukrainian son reportedly had a father in the Russian army…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755197289029648640
A Ka-52 was reported shot down…https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3kkwo45ub6f2y
A Russian survivor shows the rest of his assault team. In the background, the coke plant is smoking from an airstrike…https://twitter.com/i/lists/1708104956195053609
A soldier in the 47th Brigade said that Ukrainians are poorly prepared…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1756790416316207438
Ukraine was so short on infantry that 15 out of 64 men in an artillery unit were sent to the front as infantry. Without infantry skills, 11 were killed…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1756791228627083564
A Russian tank shrugs off a drone…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1755338001293471848
A Russian Su-34 launches a pair of UMPK bombs…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1676661710004813824
The coke plant is hit once again…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1749446624923795503
Marinka
In this assault there were plenty of prime targets for artillery. Ukraine relied on its drone, which knocked out the vehicles, but the infantry made it into Novomykhailivka…
https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1755217725985546242
The Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade protested how they were used at Vuhledar, where they were destroyed. They were rebuilt and are now protesting how they are being used at Novomykhailivka…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755928418183442513
Zaporizhzhia
A Russian drone attacks a Ukrainian defensive position…
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1754991906214273439
A Russian BMP is knocked out by an ATGM…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1755302111439446166
Kherson
Ukraine discovered that Russian commanders have banned the use of armored vehicle in attacks in the Kherson sector…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1755497070406856859
Ukraine conducts a daytime evacuation of a wounded man by boat while under fire…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1756819755346829723
Black Sea
Ukrainian special forces raided another oil platform that the Russians used to mount radars and repeaters to enhance the range of drone communication and control. After capturing enemy equipment they mined the rig and blew up the antenna mast…
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1754859774737359065
(….to be continued…)
Thanks for the update Don, will be interesting if we can get them more artillery as well as CUAS systems to protect their artillery systems once the Senate is done with its politiking. Otherwise hope you're able to cover the changes in the officer corps as well. Some of the changes are very interesting, besides the negative press behind them, from a layman like me they seem in the right direction; bringing officers who've lived at the front into higher positions, reducing administrative size in MOD, a new unmanned systems force, a more aggressive commander to lead the whole military...etc.
I was listening to Zelesnky's speech(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbGZPjnEKaY)announcing the changes and what struck me was he mentioned(at 1:30) that Syrsky would put things into practice(including related to new technologies developed by the new unmanned force) and that there was more than enough theories!!. I think he at times found Zaluzhnyi too theoretical in approach. I enjoyed reading Zaluzhnyi's writings along with Gen. Zabrodskyi(Who I admire) and they seemed very grounded in realistic challenges. So I think Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi agreed on what technological systems are needed, but differed on other things such as tactics. And I think there were other people in the security councils and MOD who shared similar thoughts as Zelensky.
Otherwise thank you so much for these updates.
"Ukraine was so short on infantry that 15 out of 64 men in an artillery unit were sent to the front as infantry. Without infantry skills, 11 were killed…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1756791228627083564 "
What a waste...