Don's Weekly, 12 February 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!

Today’s Don’s Weekly is starting in a bit of an unusual way: with something like ‘personal message’ from Don:

In recent weeks, there have been concerns about developments in the War in Ukraine. While it is understandable that many people support Ukraine's fight for democracy and freedom, it is important to remember that this is not just a battle of ideologies. It is a complex geopolitical situation with _very_ serious consequences for both sides. Unsurprisingly, time and again we must expect to hear disturbing news - and to promptly see attempts to sow doubt among the public. However, it is crucial that we rely on logic and reason rather than allowing ourselves to be swayed by emotions alone. Fear can cloud our judgment and lead us down dangerous paths.

Recent developments in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have raised concerns among observers. The replacement of Ukraine's commander-in-chief has led to speculation about the impact on the morale of the Ukrainian troops and the effectiveness of their operations. Additionally, reports suggest that Ukraine may be running low on critical supplies such as ammunition, which could put them at a disadvantage in the ongoing fighting. Indeed, Ukraine is critically short on artillery ammunition: so much so, the Russians have managed to enter Avidiivka because Ukrainian artillery could not fire at them. Arguably, Ukraine never had enough ammunition. But, now it has even less than before. In this regard, one must keep in mind: whenever Ukraine has too little ammunition, it is suffering heavier casualties and losing terrain. The less ammunition it has, the more troops and territory it is going to lose: indeed, the rate of casualties is going to increase.

While Ukraine's current supply shortages are a cause for concern, it is important to remember that the ZSU has faced similar challenges in the past and managed to overcome them. During the spring and early summer of 2022, Ukraine had even fewer resources yet still maintained a steady defence against Russian advances: indeed, it mauled and thus exhausted the Russian onslaught at Popasna, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, even if losing all three places. Nowadays, the Russians are firing one sixth of ammunition they used to fire at the time: despite re-supply from North Korea, they are experiencing serious ammunition problems. This is not only limiting the Russian capability to run large-scale offensives: it is causing them excessively high equipment losses, too.

The reason is one sector where Ukraine is still maintaining a qualitative – even if, meanwhile: no quantitative – edge: that of FPV-drones. The development of drone technology has provided Ukraine with a thin tactical advantage that can help compensate for the ZSU’s lack of traditional artillery. However, it is crucial to constantly and carefully monitor the situation closely and ensure that Ukraine receives the necessary support to sustain its resistance efforts.

While the current ammunition shortage is a significant challenge, it is important to note that this is likely the lowest point in terms of availability. European countries are gradually increasing their production rates, which will eventually lead to a surplus of supplies for Ukraine. Furthermore, there are various potential scenarios in which the United States could resume aid to Ukraine, providing additional resources for the country's defense efforts. It is crucial to remain sober, patient, and supportive during these trying times, as the outcome of this conflict will have far-reaching consequences for global stability.

It is perfectly understandable that many feel frustrated or despairing in light of recent setbacks. However, it is essential to channel these emotions productively and avoid lashing out at fellow supporters or allies. Together, we can work towards a resolution that upholds the principles of democracy and freedom.

As we navigate these difficult times, it is crucial to remember that Ukraine's fight is indeed our fight. The struggle for democracy and equality extends beyond national borders, and we must stand united in our efforts to defend these values. It is natural to experience fear and despair in the face of adversity, but we must combat these emotions with facts, logic, and solidarity. We must also be vigilant against those who seek to undermine democratic principles, both at home and abroad. Above all else, let us remember that our collective action - through voting, advocacy, and support for Ukraine - can make a meaningful difference in the world. Together, we can emerge from this crisis stronger than ever before: for example, through doing our part when voting.

Indeed, there have been dark times throughout history: just think about the darkest hours of the Second World War, in 1941 and 1942. Nevertheless, humanity has always emerged victorious in the end. As we face the challenges of today, let us draw strength from the lessons of the past and stand together for all that we hold dear. We may have obstacles to overcome, but with determination and unity, we will prevail.

After all, there are still orcs to kill.

Western Luhansk

The Azov Brigade clears trenches in the forests west of Kreminna. Raise your hand if you want to poke your head into the dugout…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1755007729305825582

Southeast of Synkivka, an elusive Russian sniper that goes by “Kosoy” was spotted by the Ukrainians and hunted by drones. Isolated and wounded, he uses arm signals asking the drone not to kill him, indicating he would surrender. But three Russians reach him first and evacuate him towards their lines. After a drone attack, they run off and leave him to his fate…

https://twitter.com/Acontece_ndo/status/1750490998889660863

Russians in a trench are subjected to very accurate barrage of drone bombs…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1756101136799428641

A Russian air defense unit runs over its own mine…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1756446319843885516

(…to be continued…)