Don's Weekly, 12 December 2023: Part 1

Hello everybody!

Sorry for failing to upload Don’s coverage of the last week of the War in Ukraine as announced: something came in between, yesterday evening. Rest assured, here is the Part 1 of the same!

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For the start, few general observations: the US aid to Ukraine is threatened and the world is noticing. Ukraine’s recent EW advantage is holding in Avdiivka, and Russian armored vehicles are making limited appearances in the Kherson sector.

Western Luhansk

A Russian helicopter landed, maybe due to mechanical issues, and was on the ground long enough to be targeted by an M31 rocket. It was damaged beyond repair…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732436128593035670

In occupied easter Luhansk, a Ukrainian collaborator was assassinated…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732419101975335309

Bakhmut

Ukraine conducted a limited counterattack towards Yahidne and Russia continued its attacks towards Klishchiivka.

4 km northwest of Bakhmut, Bohdanivka gets plastered by MLRS attacks…

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1733515023471821199/video/1

A Russian air defense system is destroyed in Soledar…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1732862272467259393

The Ukrainian 92nd Brigade posted a few videos of them destroying Russian equipment…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1732597659603468450

Also…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1733248005522764116

Avdiivka

The Ukrainian advantage in electronic warfare seems to be holding in this sector. The number of Ukrainian drone attacks have increased. A lot. The number of Russian drone attacks have decreased by the same amount. With a reduction in attacks by Russian drones it can be presumed that there are fewer Russian drones spotting for artillery, as well. And reports of Russian shelling have also been reduced. This is likely a contributing factor in the lack of Russian advances around Avdiivka. Again, there is no telling how long Ukraine will have this advantage but it’s currently saving Ukrainian lives.

Fighting in the treeline across from Stepove. The drone is north of Stepove looking back at the slagheap and coke plant…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1731705000315777489

Earlier, Russians had reached the eastern edge of Stepove, 250 m from the treeline before being eliminated. This time they seemed to have reached the middle of the village, 700 m from the treeline, before being pushed back 100 m…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1731618928504328267

The 47th (not 67th) Brigade launches a counterattack north of the coke factory…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1731434881467416594

More Russian casualties in front of the 47th Brigade…

https://twitter.com/small10space/status/1732359029358280972

A 129th Territorial Defense Brigade drone team spots for artillery north of the slagheap…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1731983631868895598

The aftermath of yet another Russian assault on Stepove…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1732495353025348000

2 km east of the coke factory, Russians gained a foothold in some houses and a Ukrainian tank engaged them at point-blank range. At one point the tank runs over an anti-personnel mine without effect…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1733252629843620021

A 25mm cannon from a Bradley in action…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733023244448350647

Ukraine had to abandon a damaged Bradley. Russia was able to control the territory long enough to recover it…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1732148681338405237

A Russian said there were 75 men in his unit when they went to the front line and there are only 14 now. They also couldn’t carry out their dead…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1733585120076955989

A Russian recon and mechanical team recovered the abandoned Bradley and they now wear medals…

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1732280881459392889

Ukraine has been swarming the Stepove treelines with drone attacks…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1731599976105402479

After a Russian BMP is immobilized by a mine, an artillery shell lands on the vehicle and infantry dismounting the BMP…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1732088280068321689

Graphic: Ukraine prosecutes Russians occupying a destroyed Ukrainian home…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1732702198771954161

Before Ukraine withdrew from the industrial park southeast of Avdiivka, the routes to some of their positions were covered by Russian weapons. Ukraine used a small tracked drone to deliver supplies and evacuate the wounded, reducing exposure to fire…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1731403527384141983

A good view of the coke factory. Also, Russian missiles attack Ukrainian vehicles…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1730263335545733302

From October, before the 47th Brigade arrived and there were a lot more trees. A Russian assault on the railroad treeline near Stepove. It’s a good video of the terrain…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1732201733227528391

Also in October, a Ukrainian assault in between the coke factory and the slagheap…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1731759206099722639

Marinka

Halfway between Marinka and Vuhledar, a Caesar 155mm gun is destroyed…

https://twitter.com/WarVehicle/status/1732071101524504873

Kherson

Very little reporting outside of posted videos but what is reported is indicating that territory hasn’t changed much around Krynky. Ukraine still has a strong advantage with drones in this sector but Russian reconnaissance drones are still observing the right bank and have been attacking Ukrainian artillery, radar, tanks and even an M270 HIMARS vehicle at a rate of 1-2 per week. While his data is incomplete, Andrew Perpetua has tracked five Russian drone attacks in this region during the week. After an absence for a couple weeks, Russian armored units are making an appearance again, based on the video reports of their destruction.

Ukraine has moved across the Dnipro during the daylight, but they often use inclement weather and night to conduct movement for added security. But the world of drones is evolving as fast as aircraft did in WW1, and more Russian drones are equipped with thermal devices to the peril of Ukrainian troops:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1733245948472533345

Seven kilometres north of the Dnipro, a Russian drone observes an M270 HIMARS launch three M31 rockets. The drone then observes the HIMARS move 3 km closer to the river to conceal itself. The drone calls in artillery on the woodline. There are no reports on whether the HIMARS was damaged or not…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1733215029254627736

Recent pictures of Krynky…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1730280915706822748

You might remember a nine-truck Russian convoy getting hit by two M31 rockets a couple weeks ago. Here’s the view from the ground. At the 30 second mark, you can get some idea of what 160k preformed fragments can do…

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1731957659018899948

Russians attack Ukrainians in Krynky from the edge of the forest…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1732742498601095173

A list of casualties from the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade near Krynky. Even with mobilized replacements it has been reduced to a battalion-sized unit. From September and November, the cause of death for 67 soldiers are listed: The average age of the dead is just over 41 years. There were 25 killed by artillery, four from enemy gunshots (two of which were snipers), 12 by mortar, and 9 by drone (either kamikaze drone or munitions dropped by drone). There are 12 listed as unknown causes, three suicides, one killed by his commanding officer, and one went AWOL, got drunk, and was shot by an unknown assailant. There are also wounded. This is a small sample size but is one indication of what Ukrainian weapon systems are causing the casualties at Krynky…https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/448

A sea drone warehouse on the Dnipro river…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1732847386337169684

A Russian trench defending against drones…

https://twitter.com/ManiacMagic1/status/1733120939783540898

More bombardment of Kherson with the purpose of killing civilians…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1732104846038172106

Black Sea

A Russian Su-24M near Snake Island was shot down by a Patriot system…https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-su-24-shot-down-over-black-sea-points-to-tactical-shift

Russian helicopters engage Ukrainian naval drones…

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1732421001320059057

Russia

Tartarigami and his team noticed construction of a nuclear research and development site. They speculate that a new laser facility might be built to develop new nuclear bombs or determine if old warheads could still function: Frontelligence Insight.

• While exploring recent developments in one of Russia's most secretive zones, our team “Frontelligence Insight” has spotted facility expansions and new constructions on the grounds of Sarov, formerly known as Arzamas-16, the birthplace of the Soviet Nuclear Project.

Russian oil and gas revenue fell 41% in the first nine months of 2023. Russia would not accept India’s payment in rupees last July so it was paid for with Chinese yuan, Hong Kong dollars and the UAE dirham. In January, 13% of all Russia oil and gas sales were conducted with yuan and that increased to 35% in January. India and China has refused to pay with roubles but 39% were bought with Russian roubles in September…https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/revenues-russias-top-oil-gas-producers-fall-41-first-9-months-2023-2023-11-30/#:~:text=Commodities-,Revenues%20of%20Russia's%20top%20oil%20and%20gas%20producers%20fall%2041,first%209%20months%20of%202023

A Ukrainian traitor is reported dead in Russia from gunshot wounds…

https://twitter.com/Doktor_Klein/status/1732435788405621201

The prisoners that joined the Russian war effort had many reasons. Some had nothing to lose. Others joined out of patriotism or for a chance to redeem their status in society, maybe even win glory, dead or alive. Others joined to help out their families financially, dead or alive…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/world/europe/russia-prison-wagner-ukraine.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20231204

Russian airlines continue to suffer from sanctions and reliability issues…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1733188158974496882

An electrical equipment plant burned in Moscow…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1732799856186376449

(…to be continued….)