Don's Weekly, 12 August 2024: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Pokrovsk-Avdiivka

Russia continued to advance up to 1500 meters in the Prohres area but didn’t make any progress elsewhere in the Pokrovsk sector.

The 110th Brigade needed two drones to knock out one tank and eight drones to knock out another.

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Marinka

Russia did not gain any territory despite several assaults. Here is an assault with infantry on motorcycles that artillery and drones of the 79th Brigade took apart.

Most of the Russian assaults with vehicles happened in the southeast corner of Ukraine, so it makes sense that we’re seeing ATGMs engaging Russian vehicles in this sector, as the 46th Brigade demonstrates.

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Southen Zaporizhzhya

Russia used a large force to assault north of Urozhaine and was defeated.

The Russians reportedly set a pile of tires on fire at the Zaporizhzhia NPP in order to cause a panic. Then they blamed Ukraine for ‘shelling the NPP’…

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Kherson

Ukraine says their special forces conducted a raid on Tendra Spit, destroying a vehicle, equipment, and defensive positions and killing 30 personnel, and returned without casualties.

An Su-34 pilot that was shot down last December filmed a portion of his descent.

Russian airstrikes, artillery barrages and drone strikes on the right bank are mostly targeting civilians and their homes in the Kherson (city) area. Over 60 were injured the last week.

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Crimea

A naval drone sunk a Russian patrol boat.

A cholera outbreak in Kherson and Crimea among the Russian troops is now reported to have spread to the cities of Simferopol, Dzhankoy and Feodosia.

A drive through the barriers designed to protect the Kerch bridge from naval drones.

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Somewhere on the Battlefield

A Russian vehicle pursued by a drone has to engage with rifle fire when their EW jammer fails.

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Russia

The UK says Russia lost more than 70,000 personnel (killed and wounded) in the last two months, which is more than 1,147 people per day. UK and Ukrainian estimates are closely aligned. BTW, considering these figures, one can imagine the volumes of the Ukrainian ammunition expenditure.

On July 28, Russia had its Navy Day. For the first time, the event was not celebrated in the Black Sea due to security concerns. The main event in Kronstadt was canceled and a smaller parade was held in St. Petersburg. Putin attended the parade and Russia believed Ukraine was trying to assassinate him and asked the US if they approved of the operation. The US called Ukraine and told them that if they were conducting this operation to cancel it. Zelensky was asked if Ukraine would assassinate Putin if given the opportunity. He replied that Ukraine has a right to defend itself and he’s lost track of the number of assassination attempts against him.

240 km from Kursk, the weapons depot at the Lipetsk air base was destroyed, as were three air defense radars. Russian bloggers claim none of the aircraft were damaged. The attack made an impression on at least one local. Destroying weapon depots interrupts the supply of UMPK glide bombs being used on the battlefield, and it was reported that 700 bombs were stored there. It also removes a Russian logistic site. These issues can be overcome in time, maybe very little time, but every disruption reduces Russian capabilities. The goal is to make sure the pace of disruptions is faster than the pace of recovery.

In the aftermath to the Ukrainian UAV-strike on the Morozovsk AB, a Russian report said 40 drones attacked the base and 22 were destroyed or electronically suppressed. The 18 remaining drones destroyed a weapons depot, which was observed and reported earlier. The Russian report also said that the flight control center and engineering equipment were damaged and an Su-34 was destroyed. A Ukrainian report said that an Su-34 was destroyed, a weapons depot, four technical buildings and two hangars were also damaged. In April, Ukraine sent 50 drones to attack the airbase and they were all suppressed by jammers and/or spoofers. But for every action in electronic warfare there is a counter action and Ukraine made a successful adjustment.

From a topic first mentioned in 2022, western logistics is efficient and uses containers that can be loaded/unloaded with forklifts. Russian logistics require manpower to load and unload. This inefficiency contributes in some small way to slower transport times. The railroad is the backbone for Russia’s transportation of military and civilian goods. It is already working at maximum capacity and this year the tonnage moved is down 7%. That is not a massive amount but since it is already working at massive capacity and does not have spare capacity, it cannot use spare capacity to make up for lost capacity use. Over half of Russia’s locomotives are over 20 years old and spare parts are an issue. Every train engine that is removed from service or is out for maintenance will decrease Russia’s maximum rail capacity. It’s another pressure point for Russia’s military logistics and economy.

Sanctions on Russia have been partially avoided through sales to third party countries who then sell the sanctioned items for higher prices to Russia. But they do have an effect. 50% of the ballistic missiles that North Korea sent to Russia failed to reach their target. A contributing factor is that North Korea could not use ball bearings designed for high temperatures and tremendous strain, so they used ball bearings from Toyota cars instead. This is one reason why Russia vetoed the annual renewal of UN sanction monitoring of North Korea that had been in place for 15 years.

(…to be continued…)