Don's Weekly, 10 March 2025: Part 3 (Ukraine, Russia & Manpower Shortages)

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Russia

Over the last few days, Ukrainian UAVs have hit Novoshakhtinsk and Ufa oil refineries. Two trains underway in Russia have been sabotaged in the last three weeks, too.

Stagnation in Russian civilian economic sectors began in the middle of 2023 and that spread to the military sector in recent months. Production is lower than demand - and then by 3-5%. The government is trying to contain inflation while finding a way to grow economically.

A Financial Times investigative documentary has found evidence that Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war are not isolated incidents but are likely to be part of a broader pattern that points to a systematic policy.

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Ukraine

Trump’s people have talked to Tymoshenko and Poroshenko about holding presidential elections with the hopes of replacing Zelensky. Tymoshenko and Poroshenko both publicly support the constitution and oppose elections during war because of the danger of dividing Ukraine. But they’re still talking with Trump’s people. The White House denies interfering in Ukrainian politics. Tymoshenko has been talking with rival party members in hopes of causing them to defect and leaving Zelensky with no choice but to call elections.

The 21 members of the 101st Separate Guard Brigade band play uplifting concerts for children and civilians as well as soldiers, some of whom are in hospitals. That can be difficult if they arrive soon after a funeral. The song they play the most is the Signal for the Burial of a Serviceman, the Ukrainian version of Taps. They played at the wedding of one of the soldiers from their brigade in the summer of 2023. In the summer of 2024, they played at his funeral.

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Manpower Issues

Tartarigami’s research indicates that over 50,000 Russian soldiers have deserted, mostly in 2023 and 2024, plus 210,000 have been killed and 200,000 severely wounded and unable to return to duty, with the total number of soldiers lost to the army being somewhere between 460k and 560k. If the lightly wounded that returned to duty were included, Russia would have around a million casualties.

Ukraine’s dead is estimated to be 90,000, and the total number of dead, permanently wounded, missing and deserters bring the totals to around 300,000. Last month, Zelensky said Ukraine had 46,000 killed and 350-380,000 wounded.

If losses at the top end of the Russian estimates were compared to the Ukrainian losses, the ratio would be 1.87 Russians being lost for every Ukrainian lost. Given the differences in populations, Russia would need to lose 3 soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier lost to reach the same level of difficulty that the Ukrainians have in sustaining their army.

This trend indicates increasing problems for Ukraine over time. Many of those problems can be mitigated with a better Ukrainian recruitment program - see: IMPROVED TRAINING - which in turn would result in increased Russian losses.

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Diplomacy

With the fall of the Soviet Union, the US decided to maximize the ‘peace dividend’ and reduced the size of its forces and the number of its bases to save money. They maintained a force large enough to fight 2.5 regional wars anywhere in the world but did not see the need to maintain a force capable of engaging a near-peer opponent for an extended period of time since none existed at that moment.

Europe also reduced the size of its expensive military because 15 republics gained independence from the Soviet Union, Russia itself was in shambles, and they could rely on the United States for both deterrence and protection.

No one in the West reacted when Russia reorganized itself into a dictatorship. No one in the West reacted when Russia attacked its neighbors in 2008 and 2014. No one in Europe reacted when the American government was led in 2016 by someone who threatened to leave NATO, a threat that was dangerous enough for the US Congress to pass a law to make it hard to do.

So instead of being prepared, the West and Ukraine reacted to Russia’s open invasion in 2022.

Governments should do their planning based on capabilities, not on intentions. Intentions can change in an instant.

The West did not change their capabilities. They strengthen their active duty forces, their reserve forces, their stockpiles or their production capacity. Europe relied on the (unprepared) capabilities of the US. The intentions of the US changed quickly, but not without plenty of warning.

Europe is reacting to that change of intentions now. One key feature of the US was that their nuclear weapons would be the ultimate threat towards anyone that invaded one of their allies. Their allies would be protected by America’s ‘nuclear umbrella’. Because of this, the allied countries would not need their own nuclear weapons. Now, because the US is no longer perceived as reliable, countries are considering developing their own nuclear weapons. They can no longer rely on the capabilities of the US so they are developing their own nuclear capabilities. Because of the unreliability of the US, nuclear weapons will proliferate.

That means there are more opportunities for countries with nuclear capabilities to instantly change their intentions.

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The Department of Justice had already reassigned the staff identifying and seizing Russian assets. $3.85 billion remains of the funds that Congress authorized for Ukrainian aid. Trump halted all remaining military shipments. Now the US stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine because of his concern for all the Ukrainians that are dying. This reportedly includes advance warning of drone and missile strikes against both military and civilian targets. The US also suspended a contract with Maxar to deliver civilian satellite imagery to Ukraine. Many Republican lawmakers are pressuring Trump to resume intelligence sharing immediately and warn that cutting off the flow of weapons for too long will degrade Ukraine’s ability to fight and undercut their leverage in peace talks with Russia.

Five senior Western and Ukrainian officials and officers say that hundreds of additional Ukrainians will die because of the pause on weapon shipments and withholding intelligence. It hurts morale, it gives Russia an advantage, it’s degraded Ukraine’s ability to hit long-ranged targets with HIMARS/MLRS, and Ukraine has less time to warn civilians about airstrikes.

US allies are now reconsidering what information they will share with America out of fear it will be shown to Russia. He already revealed highly classified information to Russia eight years ago.

Trump once again said the US may not defend a NATO member that hasn’t spent enough on defense. He also doubted that some members would defend the US if it was attacked, even though all of NATO supported the US after 9/11. Trump’s nominee for ambassador told senators that the US commitment to NATO would be “ironclad.”

1.8 million migrants are in the US under temporary humanitarian parole programs and Trump is planning to revoke their status and deport them. 530,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans will lose their status as soon as this month. Over 70,000 Afghans may lose their status, many of whom supported US military efforts and are marked for death by the Taliban. Some have been detained. Responding to a lawyer’s request for her client’s release, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) official said, “The priorities that you mentioned in your email ended on January 20, 2025,” referring to the date of Trump’s inauguration. 240,000 Ukrainian refugees may lose their status in April. The planning to remove them began before Zelensky’s meeting with Trump. Foreign affairs journalist Olga Nesterova reminded Americans that “these people had to be completely financially independent, pay tax, pay all fees (around $2K) and have an affidavit from an American person to even come here.”

Trump wrote that he was considering banking sanctions, other sanctions and tarrifs on Russia. Hours later, he told reporters he was finding it more difficult to deal with Ukraine and said once again that he trusted Putin.

In an opinion piece, a former CIA officer wrote, “Inside the CIA, we often joked that, to Putin, win-win means I beat you twice. Good intentions from the U.S. side have proved time and again to have been futile in improving relations.”

Russia says the US policy shift aligns with its own vision.

Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are among the nations calling to use Russian money that is frozen in European and allied banks. France, Belgium and Germany have opposed the move because the law doesn’t allow it and other countries could do the same thing in future disputes. Of the $300 billion that are frozen, $50 is held in US banks. Estimates indicated that it would take $524 billion and ten years to repair the damage Russia caused in Ukraine.

The US Commerce Secretary said Ukraine went too far to demand reparations, returned lands and security guarantees. He said Zelensky isn’t a peacemaker, he’s a troublemaker, adding, “You’ve got to say, ‘We love America, we appreciate America, we want you by our side, and if you think we should have peace, we should have peace.’”

A Chinese representative said that Russia and the US shouldn’t dictate the peace terms and that Europe and Ukraine should be included in the talks. He was appalled by Trump’s brazen and domineering policy towards Europe and suggested Europe should compare it to China's approach, which is peace, friendship, goodwill and win-win cooperation. Representatives from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam were not available to confirm China’s loving embrace.

Russian and China are making a concerted effort to recruit fired and threatened US federal workers.

Poland and Denmark are talking with France about being covered by their nuclear umbrella since US protection is no longer reliable. Germany will talk to France and the UK about relying on them for nuclear security. Poland is also thinking about acquiring their own nuclear weapons and said they would withdraw from treaties banning anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions. Germany also did not take part in the UN review of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, an indication that they may be on the path to acquire their own nuclear weapons.

"The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons dates back to a time before the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine ... The intention and ambition of the Treaty no longer reflect the current reality in security policy ... [the Russian war in Ukraine has demonstrated] that nuclear deterrence is indispensable for our security," the German Foreign Office said.

Italy’s Meloni calls for a Article 5 security guarantee for Ukraine even without NATO membership.

Lithuania withdrew from the treaty banning cluster munitions and is considering leaving the treaty banning anti-personnel mines. Poland and Finland are considering the same actions.

Ukraine has an army of 800,000. Poland has an army of 200,000 and wants to increase it to 500,000 with reservists. The plan is to train all men and welcome women into the army. It is spending 4.7% of its GDP and Tusk is pushing to increase it to 5%.

The US rejected a Canadian proposal to establish a task force to deal with Russia’s shadow fleet. They are currently softening the language towards Russia in a joint statement while strengthening language against China.

The EU ignored Hungary and agreed to unlock €800 billion for defense spending. They still need to convert the potential of words into the reality of action. The bloc will loosen its debt rules to allow greater spending. After the decision, the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, discussed the action with leaders from UK, Turkey, Canada, Norway and Iceland. The US was not part of the conversation.

Some comments: "Hungary has always made things difficult; it's good that the rest said, 'We don't buy it; you go your own way.' It's just more pragmatic to ignore Prime Minister Orban"- EU diplomat. "There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine, the new approach of the American administration to Europe, and the arms race started by Russia pose completely new challenges to us. Europe must join this arms race and win it."-Polish PM Tusk. "The spirit of our discussions is that Europe will have to go it alone. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst."-EU official. "It's like a nightmare we want to wake up from"-EU official. "Europe is finally waking up and hearing the alarm bells. These kinds of discussions wouldn't have happened two or three weeks ago, let alone two or three months ago."-Senior European diplomat.

Protests against the Serbian government took place in the local parliament.

After Russia halted gas shipments to Transistria, the unrecognized breakaway region made concessions to Moldova in return for gas supplies. Political prisoners have been released and checkpoints that were established in 2022 were removed.

Romania expelled two Russian military diplomats a day after Russia claimed European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had asked Bucharest to bar Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu.

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(…to be continued…)