Don's Weekly, 10 June 2024: Part 3

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Russia

At the Akthubinsk Air Base - nearly 600 km from the border to Ukraine - a Sukhoi Su-57s was hit by a drone. Able to launch cruise missiles, this is the Russia’s much lauded ‘5th generation’, ‘stealth’ fighter and, in their minds, superior to anything the West has. As of December 2023, a total of 22 prototypes and 0-series aircraft were manufactured, out of a total of 76 that were ‘on order’. The majority of them is at Akthubinsk, where they are undergoing flight-testing while the team involved is trying to write technical- and tactical manuals for them, and the companies involved are trying to sort out all the software-related issues marring the project for nearly 10 years meanwhile (between others, there are issues with integration of all the on board sensors and the steering of their future engines). The number of ‘fully mission capable’ examples (see: aircraft with all of their systems in operational condition) was probably at around six. Now there are just five:

…https://www.newsweek.com/russia-jet-ukraine-su-57-gur-astrakhan-1910129

The Russian social media is confirming the damage on a jet. Ironically, and as can be seen from attached satellite photographs: the Russians were in the process of constructing a ‘Sun-shelter’-like UAV-cover over the jet…

Another Ukrainian drone hit the Mozdok AB, a base from which the Russian Tu-22M-3 bombers were staging their air strikes on Syria, back in 2015-2019, and, since 2022, on Ukraine. It’s over 700 km away from Ukraine. Right now, there are no details on the specific damage caused…https://x.com/kromark/status/1799446331251147063

An opinion on the Russian economy…https://x.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1798537710120153373

Another complaint from the ranks about Russian casualties. This will change nothing…https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1799124607816896532

Russia is testing anti-drone nets for refineries…https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1798769361064468907

Oh, look: Another nuclear threat if someone does something…https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/putin-calls-major-expansion-russian-financial-markets-cutting-use-western-2024-06-07/

One of Putin’s homes burned…https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/30/7458442/

Putin says there’s no need for nukes or a mobilization because Russia has increased it’s production by a factor of 20 and there are plenty of volunteers…https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1799187227622183214

An oil refinery that was 170 km from the front was defended by anti-drone nets. It burned anyway…https://x.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1798537710120153373

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Ukraine

When you have an hour, here is a series of articles that talks about Ukrainian special forces operations in Kabul, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mariupol, Snake Island and Balakliya, the opening battle in the Kharkiv offensive. They also fought in Bakhmut, attempted to assassinate Prigozhin and crossed the Russian border in privately purchased Blackhawk helicopters. Budanov still takes part in some missions. Written before the US resumed aid, the article tells of their concerns about supplies and how the war of attrition takes its toll on survivors.

Nazar was one of the Kabul 9. He was killed trying to rescue his teammates that were shot down in their helicopter returning from a relief mission in Mariupol.

Ukrainian special forces have been documented attacking Russian forces in Sudan. Here’s a video of them attacking Russian forces in Syria.

This article is from three months ago. It details the experience of a Chosen Company member’s encounter with a grenade. Chosen Company is staffed by experienced foreign fighters.

The NYT created a visualization of how heavily a village or city was damaged…https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/world/europe/ukraine-destruction.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20240604

As a large city, Mariupol suffered the most destroyed buildings. Of the 106 hospitals destroyed throughout Ukraine, 18 were in Mariupol. They also lost 34 of the 109 churches and 237 of the 708 schools. Marinka and its 200-year-old history does not have a single building that survived.

“You know the simplest way to make a person cry?” Ms. Hrushkovska asked. “Make them remember their city and their home.”

I’ve seen beds in bunkers and soldiers sleeping in open air dirt fighting positions, but I’ve never seen bed frames in open air dirt fighting positions…https://x.com/albafella1/status/1799207904740053428

While Putin claims Zelensky is illegitimate, Zelensky notes that Putin is elected by Putin…https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-hits-back-at-putins-claims-about-ukraines-president-legitimacy/

South of Kyiv a fuel depot was hit…https://x.com/3_bm15/status/1799198047596921167

Russia killed 174 Ukrainian civilians last month, the most since June, 2023. Russia’s incursion into the Kharkiv was a major contributor to these deaths…https://kyivindependent.com/un-monthly-civilian-death-toll-rises-to-highest-point-in-almost-a-year/

Zelensky’s encounter with a WW2 veteran in Normandy…https://x.com/LCI/status/1798725613144191196

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Diplomacy

Russians living in Europe have attacked and even killed Ukrainians living in Europe. These Russians were arrested by the Czechs…https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1797607940708532565

Russia will no longer consider the Taliban as a terrorist organization…https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1799048442469384408

A Russian Ukrainian man planned to be a terrorist during the Olympics…https://kyivindependent.com/france-charges-russian-ukrainian-man-over-alleged-terrorist-plot/

If Finland believes that a foreign national acquiring property is not in the state’s interest then the state can acquire the property, even if the sale was already concluded. Estonia is considering similar legislation in which third country nationals must apply before buying property. The law targets Russian and Belarusian nationals that might buy property near sensitive locations…https://news.err.ee/1609364830/estonia-to-stop-third-country-nationals-from-buying-land-near-strategic-facilities

The editor at The Grayzone receives money from both Russia and Iran. Russia and China collaborate in their disinformation campaigns against common enemies and share info and techniques. America’s tolerance for information from foreign agents is a threat to its democracy…https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/06/02/grayzone-russia-iran-support/

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Equipment

Rheinmetall is building a plant in Lithuania that will produce “tens of thousands” of shells per year. That’s a fairly small amount but every bit helps…https://mil.in.ua/en/news/rheinmetall-ammunition-plant-to-be-built-in-lithuania/

Rubber armor is used to absorb shrapnel…https://x.com/Cyrusontherun/status/1798480625604956658

A Ukrainian drone was captured intact and the self-destruct mechanism failed…https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1798789862847598800

France is sending Mirage 2000’s to Ukraine. They will also arm and train a 4,500 strong brigade…https://x.com/tweetforAnna/status/1798789524111364140

A list of what the US is sending this round, including 100 M113, anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft weapons…https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1799112897798471721/photo/1

Germany is considering sending a fourth Patriot systems…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/07/bloomberg-germany-weighs-sending-ukraine-fourth-patriot-air-defense-system/

New radars and missiles are needed to turn NASAMS into an anti-ballistic missile systems, as well. Norway plans to do it in five years…https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1799183444246753421

During the cold war, self-propelled artillery trained to conduct a fire mission and then use rapid displacement to move out of the area to avoid counter battery fire. Their greatest threat to detection was the counter battery radar that could track a mortar or artillery shell to their point of origin. In this war, movement is often detected by drones so there is an advantage to digging in and letting the defensive position and screens protect an artillery piece from artillery shells and drones.

When Ukraine conducts counter battery fire, though, it has to move to within 3-10 km of the front line and they are very vulnerable to drone attacks. They are not escorted by anti-drone weapons and, unlike FPV drones, Zalas and Lancets are very resilient in an EW environment. Constantine’s volunteer group has built screens on their first SPG. Unlike the turtle tank’s protection that removes much of the gun’s functionality, these screens don’t interfere with the gun’s operational capabilities, but that means it isn’t fully protected, either. Still, they are going to find out if it helps in any way…https://x.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1798410875209965813

This six-month-old report says that the US will double the production of HIMARS vehicles from 48 to 96, and will double the production of M1 tanks to 30-40 a month to meet the demands of Poland and other nations that ordered these vehicles. Javelin production will increase from 2,100 per year to 3,960 by 2026, plus it will be built overseas to help meet worldwide demand. Stingers will increase production by 50% to 60 a month by 2025. An Iowa plant that fills shell casings with explosives received $1.2 billion to expand operations. Back in December it was filling 22,000 shells a month, double its previous rate. And two Pennsylvania plants received $120 million to modernize production and open another production line at one of those plants…https://www.hudson.org/defense-strategy/helping-ukraine-forcing-united-states-produce-more-weapons-rebeccah-heinrichs

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Shell Casing Production Technology

Artillery shells undergo tremendous stresses when fired and the metal casing needs to be strong, durable and flexible. After the iron ore is smelted and impurities are removed and carbon, chromium, nickel and molybdenum are added. Then the standard production method is to heat the ingot or slug to very high temperatures, press it into shape and then cool it down. The Scranton, Pennsylvania plant increased its production level to 36,000 shells per month using a combination of robotics and century-old techniques like this. The site employs 300 people.

The Mesquite, Texas facility while under construction. All three buildings are now completed.

A new $500 million facility was built in Mesquite, Texas and production began less than ten months after construction began. Three buildings have three production lines that will eventually create 30,000 shells a month when completed. The modern production lines only require 150 employees and utilizes flow forming instead of pressing at high temperatures to create the casings.

Flow forming has been used to create components for aerospace and other industries but the Turkish company of Repkon patented a way to create artillery casings with this method. Flow forming uses spinning and pressing to shape metal. A water pail can be created from a flat disc of metal, similar to how a potter might create a bowl. Here is a video of wheels being shaped and none of the metal is being cut away.

This method reduces the number of steps needed to create a shell casing and provides better tolerances, reduces raw material waste, and improves molecular grain structure properties. Repkon says they produce a 122 mm shell casing in less than three minutes. Flow forming is the state of the technology.