Don's Weekly, 1 September 2025: Part 4 (Ukraine, Fire Point, Diplomacy)

by Donald Hill (and few bits & pieces by Tom Cooper)

(…continued from Part 3…)

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Ukraine

Russia began abducting Ukrainian children in 2014 but their efforts escalated with the 2022 open invasion. Ukraine knows of at least 19,546 children that were abducted. It is the reason why Putin has warrants out for his arrest even as he walked the red carpet on US soil. US pressure could bring many of them home but when the President of the EU spoke about the children two weeks ago, Trump showed no interest, saying they were there for different reasons. About a thousand children have been returned so far. Some of the older ones that refused Russian passports were jailed and tortured. Some of the younger ones that spent three of their four of five years of life with a Russian name and speaking only Russian are back with their families that they do not know. Many that returned do not speak at all because of the trauma. Russia does not cooperate with any European countries that support Ukraine but there is a hope that countries like Slovakia might be able to help return some of the children.

…precisely as warned since at least two years: the Bayraktar drone factory that was under construction in Kyiv (by side the question: ‘and how comes it took them 3,5 YEARS to start constructing it?’) - was hit with two Russian missiles.

See the question asked again and again: how do they all - the incompetent Ukrainian and ‘Western’ leaders (and not a few investors) - think they can construct new arms factories in Ukraine, if they can’t help Ukraine defend these properly?

We’ve never heard an atom of an answer to this question. Things with the Ukrainian air defences are only growing worse. Often by a day.

…just like we’ve never heard the answer on how do they want to secure the power supply for all the new factories… or where do they want to find and train all the necessary personnel (even more so at the time Zele/Yermak are letting youngsters leave the country if the want)…

Now, sure: the majority of Ukrainian drone factories are dispersed. In- and outside the country. For exmaple, Quantum Systems has factories in Germany, the US and Australia, but: they also opened several factories in Ukraine to get the vital feedback from the front lines in a timely manner.

Rheinmetall said that a lack of cash and Ukrainian bureaucracy is slowing the progress of its new ammo facility in Ukraine, but Ukraine passed a new law that allowed drone manufacturers to sell directly to military units instead of the State Agency for Defense Procurement. This is eliminating most of the bureaucracy for those weapon systems.

…and creating a ‘two class society’ within the ZSU. See: units that can afford buying UAVs and those that can’t…

…because it’s easier to push such laws through the Verkhovna Rada (the parliament), than combat corruption and incompetence within the government?

Denmark will provide €1.4 billion to Ukrainian defense companies, believing it is faster and more cost-effective than providing the money to European factories. Last year they gave €600 million to Ukrainian companies.

Ukraine prohibited men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country ever since Russia’s open invasion. Many families sent their sons to other countries before they turned 18. Now men between 18 and 22 will be allowed to leave the country. The draft age begins at 25.

…because, you know: all the Ukrainians are equal, and have the money to leave the country…

Yermak traveled to London to ask Zalushny, the Ukrainian ambassador to Britain, to join Zelensky’s team in the next elections. Zaluzhny refused. Polls show that Zaluzhny is currently the only serious threat to a Zelensky campaign. Last February, after Trump and Vance berated Zelensky in the Oval Office, Vance tried contacting Zaluzhny to reportedly sound out possible replacements for Zelensky. Zaluzhny declined to speak with Vance.

Ukraine’s gas reserves are at their lowest levels in 12 years. They have 10 billion cubic meters and need to have 13.2 billion cubic meters by November 1. Ukraine receives most of its gas from Hungary and Slovakia after it passes through the Turkish Stream pipeline. This gas originates in Russia. Since 2015, Ukraine stopped buying gas directly from Russia, but it bought that gas that Russia sold to European countries. Ukraine is trying to buy more gas from Azerbaijan. Poland ships Ukraine a small amount of gas from non-Russian sources.

The former speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, Andriy Parubiy, was shot and killed in Lviv. The gunman was dressed like a Glovo courier on an e-bike. He was part of the Euromaidan movement and joined the territorial defence forces in 2022.

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Fire Point

Fire Point is known for its FP-1 long-ranged drones and the Flamingo missile. In 2023, they had a staff of 18 people. That year their profits grew from $4 million to over $100 million and their staff continued to grow to its current size of 2,200 people. They received funding from European governments under the ‘Danish model’, and will receive more in 2025 as one of the recipients of the €5 billion German aid package. Of the $1.04 billion that the Ukrainian government budgeted for drones in 2024, $320 million was spent on Fire Point products. In 2025, they have contracts with the Ukrainian government for more than $1 billion.

Fire Point’s CEO says its drones hit targets in Russia 55-60% of the time, but two industry sources say that in 2023 their drones were barely functional and were receiving massive preferential funding from the government. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) began investigating the company about four months ago.

Guess, we’ll have to wait for the results of this investigation for very, very long. Simply because alone the top leadership of that company ‘stinks’ of ‘buddies’.

You see: the legal owner of the Fire Point is Yehor Skalyha, who worked in Ukraine’s film industry. Alongside Andriy Yermak, he signed a letter of protest in 2018 against President Poroshenko’s attack on Ukraine’s film industry. Iryna Terekh is the CEO with a background in artistic concrete installations, and her company never had profits above $70,000. In December 2022, she was chosen to be part of a business council that met in the President’s office. In April 2025, Skalyha and Terekh were named by Yermak to a government council of 82 business people.

Skalyha and Terekh both raised funds for the non-profit organization Civic Hub right after the open invasion in 2022. Terekh also ran the charity fund Frieden in Germany.

BTW, Fire Point was originally named the Centrocast. The name was changed to Fire Point when ownership was handed to Skalyha in February 2023. Terekh says that she, Skalyha and engineer/designer Denys Shtylerman funded the project themselves until the Ukrainian government started buying their drones. NABU is trying to determine if Fire Point’s true owner is Yehor Skalyha, or Tim Mindich. Mindich is a co-owner of Kvartal 95, which… what a pure, distilled accident - was co-founded by Zelensky.

Terekh denies the accusations and says the investigation is based on rumors from opponents and part of a wider probe into Ukraine’s defense industry. She said that the Digital Transformation Ministry was targeting Fire Point, and that "nobody can choose between Yermak and Mindich as to who we are associated with,” adding, "I understand why people are so skeptical — I would also be skeptical. The worst possible human thing that can happen during a war is to steal from the war."

Well, after all of this, at leaset one needs not wondering any more, why over a month ago, Zele/Yermak were after smashing the NABU and SAPO…

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Diplomacy

Ukraine currently receives 10% of its diesel fuel from Slovakia, but because of Ukraine’s attacks on the Druzhba pipeline, Slovakia threatened to cut off shipments to Ukraine. Ukraine is reliant on electricity imports, half of which comes from Hungary and Slovakia. Hungary has threatened to cut off its electricity shipments to Ukraine several times and it did so again last week.

This chart from 2024 shows that most of Ukraine’s electricity imports come from Hungary, followed by Poland and Slovakia, then Romania, and then Moldova.

Hungary sanctioned Robert Brovdi and prevented him from traveling in Europe because he was the commander of the drones that attacked the pipeline. He responded: “You can shove your sanctions and restrictions on visiting Hungary up your ass, Mr. ‘Dancer-On-Bones’. I am a Ukrainian. I will travel to the land of my Father, even after you are gone. There are enough real Hungarians in Hungary. One day they will get sick of you. And as far as Schengen restrictions - don’t bite off more than you can chew. Your humor stinks. Your “special agents” aren’t anywhere near the top ten. So for now just wait for what's coming to you.

‘And as far as your populism about the ‘sovereignty of Hungary’, you just keep on selling that claptrap to the stupid and uneducated. As long as there are even a few of them, you’ll have someone who will buy your bla-bla-bla. But just remember, this is the black-and-white position of an ethnic Hungarian, of a Ukrainian soldier, and the commander of the ‘Birds’ (414 Unmanned Aircraft Brigade) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

By taking oil from the Druzhba pipeline, you aren’t defending Hungary’s sovereignty. You’re filling your own dirty pockets, with sanctioned, cheap, raw materials. By buying them, you are complicit in transferring bloody money to Russia, which then flies back into Ukraine as missiles and Shahed drones aimed at peaceful Ukrainian cities.

Just today, August 28, 2025, dozens of Ukrainians have been killed in Kyiv. Your arms are elbow-deep in Ukrainian blood. And we remember that.”

The Deputy Prime Minister of Poland assured Brovdi that he was free to travel in Poland, and Marton Tompos, the head of the Movement Momentum opposition party in Hungary, transferred €414 to Brovdi’s former unit, the 414th Unmanned Aviation Systems Regiment “Birds of Magyar” Brigade and urged others to also donate.

When sanctions on the shadow fleet are enacted by the EU only, or by the UK only, they are not effective. When the sanctions are enacted by the EU and UK jointly, they are only marginally effective. When the US is involved in shadow fleet sanctions, even if unilaterally, they are effective. Sanctions need to be updated regularly or the sanctioned nations will find ways around them. The US has not imposed any sanctions since Trump became president.

Germany wants to increase the size of their active duty forces by 260,000 personnel and their reserves by 200,000. They will try to do so with higher pay to attract volunteers. Applications to join in 2024 rose by 31%. Starting in 2026, young males will be required to answer a questionnaire on whether they wish to join the Bundeswehr. It will be optional for women. In 2027, all 18-year-olds will be required to undergo medical fitness examinations even if they do not want to volunteer. If there are not enough volunteers then the shortage will be filled with conscription.

EU trade with Kyrgyzstan skyrocketed after the open Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kyrgyzstan's trade with Russia went from $393 million in 2021 to $1.07 billion in 2022, and $3.5 billion in 2024. They use crypto currency to avoid sanctions. Crypto activity went from virtual nonexistent levels to $600k by March 2022 to $59 million by the end of the year. In the first seven months of 2024 it was $4.2 billion. But when the UK and outgoing US administration sanctioned the Kyrgyzstan banks last January, the country’s president accused them of “politicizing the economy.”

Last October, Moldova elected a pro-EU president over a pro-Russian candidate with 55% of the vote despite extensive Russian interference. They are holding parliamentary elections on 28 September and will once again be a test on whether the nation can resist Russian influence. If the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity retains control, they plan to become part of the EU by 2028 and reintegrate Transnistria. The breakaway territory used to receive ‘free’ gas from Russia and sell it to Moldova. Now that Ukraine shut their gas pipeline down, Transnistria has to pay for its gas and can no longer raise money by selling it. Moldova is still dependent on Transnistria for electricity because the EU grid runs through the territory, but Moldova is building a new interconnector that will eliminate that dependency when it is finished this year. With no money and no leverage over Moldova, Transnistria will be more dependent on Moldova. The Russian occupation forces would still be a problem.

Poland’s president was elected after imitating many of Trump’s policies, such as “Poland First.” Last week he vetoed legislation to pay for the services of 24,500 Starlink terminals that Ukraine’s military relies on. He ended aid to the 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees in Poland and denied their right to work in the country.

2.1 children per couple is needed to maintain a population. With a birthrate of 1.1 last year, Poland has one of the lowest rates in the world. Only eight countries have a lower birth rate. Shrinking populations combined with aging populations have a negative impact on the economy. Growing populations increase the size of an economy, which is why countries such as Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico are expected to be in the top seven economies by 2050. Immigrants can provide some relief from negative population growth but many authoritarian-leaning leaders choose to expel them.

The President of Portugal said that Trump is “objectively a Soviet or Russian asset. Objectively, the new US leadership strategically contributed to Russia.” Others have made these allegations before, including Yuri Shvets, a former KGB major now living in the US, Sergei Zhyrnov, a former KGB officer now living in France, and now Alnur Mussayev, former head of the Kazakhstan intelligence service. None of them were able to provide any evidence, only their testimony. But there are plenty of connections that are curious.

China recently said they cannot accept Russia losing this war because then the US would turn their whole attention on China. But their news also started covering the war with stories of Russian drones hitting residential buildings and Ukrainian drones hitting Russian warships.

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(…to be concluded in the Part 5…)