Don's Weekly, 1 June 2026: Part 1
by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)
Hello everybody!
Another week, another cycle of breathless idiotism between all the top ‘statesmen’ around the world. It doesn’t just seem that way: it is 1000% certain that nowadays, the definition of ‘strategic victory’ stands for the biggest imaginable political screw up.
There was quite a celebration - at least in the Ukrainian social media - about the depth to which the country’s forces are meanwhile striking targets inside Russia. Latest reported figure is 3,500km. Yet, what did they hit with this unprecedented range? Two Tu-142MKs. Stored for decades. Having zero military value. It’s the equivalent of sneaking into a museum to punch a skeleton - a daring feat of athleticism that accomplishes absolutely nothing. Except filling the headlines with dope of the kind Zele must be sniffing, few times a day: heroics.
But wait. It’s got better. Indeed, it turned out that such strikes are run by an AI saviour (and then of the similar kind like the one used by the Israelis as the best excuse for their genocide on Palestinians): Palantir’s PRISMA software is reportedly running inside Ukrainian command posts, ‘learning the holes in Russia’s air defense net in real time.’ The irony is palpable: an AI optimizing routes for suicide drones so these can kill Tu-142s abandoned 30 years ago…
Really, human stupidity is something all the processing power in the world can’t properly replicate nor generate: it’s so powerful, even the AI is driven by it.
Just think about it: people spent years developing algorithms that calculate the perfect trajectory for drones - which cost their money in research, development, and acquisition, too - which are then deployed to target aircraft that haven’t flown since the Cold War. The results are cheered by the media and the politics that are outdoing each other in their inability to distinguish between a strategic breakthrough and pure idiotism.
Sure, some are now going to at least cringe from what I’ve written above. Others are going to feel triggered, and few others disappointed. But, what do you expect? Serious military analysis of malicious stupidity? Recommendations for how to stop this and what to improve? How to do better…?
Sure, this is just one case. One example, if you prefer. But, sorry: this is only inspiring me into getting angry - and I haven’t spent more than three hours following what’s up in Ukraine, the last few days: meanwhile don’t want to know what other ‘wonders’ I might ‘discover’…
Over to Don.
Overview
The attacks on Russian logistics from Luhansk to Melitopol continues. For all the known attacks on trucks, even more are conducted on warehouses and depots. There are an unknown number of attacks that haven’t been released publicly. Understandably, predictably, more trucks are avoiding the main highways and taking smaller roads. Even without being attacked, their movement is slowed because the roads don’t support high speed travel. And when a truck is destroyed on a smaller road, it often blocks that road and no one can use it until the wreck is removed.
The size of the mid-strike drones is very difficult to detect on radar and the Starlink antenna they carry is hard to jam. Russian options are few and would take time to implement.
Russia could erect anti-drone net tunnels. These exist on the front lines and usually extend about 25 km along 1-3 roads in a sector. The Russian rear area being attacked is 500 km x 100+ km with multiple primary, secondary and tertiary roads. Establishing drone nets over those road networks would be time consuming and require a lot of personnel that would be attacked while working.
They could set up observation posts and mobile gun teams. They would need hundreds of them, and double the crews so they could work 24 hours a day. That’s a lot of equipment and a lot of personnel and it will take a while to get set up. They would definitely shoot down some drones but drones have been attacking the mobile gun teams, as well.
They could use drone interception teams. That will take even longer to set up and require even more personnel. Unless they are using automated interceptors, it will take six months to train the pilots.
You can never be certain of your enemy’s actions but it seems that Ukraine will have several more months before Russia might be able to offer an effective resistance against their mid-strike drones and it’s possible that Ukraine will have enhanced their capabilities in the meantime.
The attacks on Russian logistics are already having some impact on the fighting on the front lines. It takes longer to move personnel to the front, which means there are longer pauses in between attacks and fewer personnel to send on the attacks. If Ukraine kills or wounds Russians faster than they can be replaced in a sector, then there are fewer soldiers to defend. This is why there are more small-scale Ukrainian attacks across the front. Russia just can’t hold all the positions on the front line.
The attacks on logistics doesn’t just impact Russian infantry, it affects Russian drone crews, as well. Personnel aside, drones have to be continually brought up the front lines, and the more trucks that are destroyed, the harder it will be to supply additional drones. Warehouses that store and repair drones have been destroyed, and the personnel that store and repair the drones have become casualties. The reduction of Russian drone capabilities is needed for Ukraine to gain air superiority, and with air superiority Ukraine can win the war.
This is still attritional warfare. When Russia was advancing, it was at a very slow rate. In the sectors where Ukraine is advancing, it is at a very slow rate. And most of Ukraine’s advances can be characterized as shrinking the gray zone by clearing out the small teams that have penetrated up to 7 km past the notional front line. There have been some advances into Russia’s established positions, as well. Quicker advances would require mechanized movement, and when Ukraine has used armored vehicles, the Russian drones still take a heavy toll of the vehicles, even if they might protect the personnel inside. When either side advances, it is just one treeline at a time.
Ukraine’s goal is still to hollow out the Russian army while preserving their own forces. Towards that end, Ukraine’s 3rd Corps is working to replace 30% of their infantry with ground drones by 2027. And it’s already been proven that ground and aerial drones can clear out positions and make it easier for infantry to advance and occupy them. Ukraine needs to continue to develop ways to conduct offensive operations in a drone environment.
Right now, Ukraine has some strong advantages over Russia inside Ukraine but there are no guarantees these advantages will last. Given time, Russia adapts to the battlefield and uses new methods to gain an advantage. Ukraine must innovate technology and tactics at a faster rate than Russia and use their advantages without being reckless. If they could establish a doctrine that protected their personnel and allowed them to advance in a sector just 500 meters a week it would put an enormous amount of pressure on the Russian army. But Ukraine’s personnel have to be preserved. They are more important than territorial gain.
…at least for the staff of the 3rd Corps…
Chernihiv
A Shahed-type drone falls in an open field near a farmer on a tractor. Other attacks in the Chernihiv region include a farm worker that was killed while the adjacent tractor driver was severely injured. A pig farm and a cattle farm were attacked. Summer houses, a woodworking ship, a logistics company and infrastructure were also attacked in the same 24 hour period.
Lyman
Two weeks ago there was a Russian video showing a Ukrainian attack near Nove because of the loss of vehicles and men. At the same time, there were reports of Ukrainian advances towards Serednie, Novoselivka and Kolodiazi, but not video. Last week there was a report of Ukrainian activity north of Torske, and there are reports of Russian attacks at these locations, but no video.
This week, the 59th Brigade, with its new commander, released a video of Russians running from drones in the forests near Lyman. The 59th was recently west of Pokrovsk. This matches other reports that there are a lot of Ukrainian drones in this sector, but very few videos.
It is possible that there is a video blackout in place, as has happened during some operations, but this is speculation.
35 km from the front, Ukrainian drones patrol Rubizhne, Sievierodonetsk and the surrounding countryside.
Sloviansk
A Russian artillery piece is destroyed 12 km behind the lines. A bridge in Siversk is hit by an airstrike. Russia bombed Mykolaivka.
Footage from inside a cafe in Kramatorsk. No one was hurt in the video when a bomb landed nearby. …where ‘nearby’ could have been a hundred meters away. This is what you have to endure if you are Russia’s neighbor.
Kostiantynivka
Russian forces moving through Berestok and Illinivka reached northern Kostiantynivka. They may or may not have survived after being attacked, but the deeper penetration is a new milestone in the Russian advance.
An M113 with a cage withstood nine drone hits and pulled three wounded soldiers out of the city.
The Phoenix Border Guard drone team flew a quadcopter FPV 103 km to strike a truck with no relay assistance. 70-80 km strikes are normal. They had to fly that far to find a target.
When Russia’s open invasion began in 2022, the city was only 22 km from the front lines Russia gained during its unacknowledged invasion of 2014-2021. That already placed it in artillery range. In the months that followed, shelling, drone attacks and airstrikes slowly increased as the Russians advanced. Three years ago they were only 10 km from the city. The pre-war population of 67,000 shrank to 2,000 last January.
About a thousand drones fly over Kostiantynivka every day now and the 28th Brigade shoots down 150 of them. Captain Alkhimov says it’s like a Middle Ages siege with modern technologies.
Military vehicles rarely drive into the city anymore because they are likely to be attacked by drones. Until recently, rescuers still made trips in their vans, risking their own lives to evacuate civilians who should have left long ago. On one trip, a Russian drone attacked a clearly marked van. No one was killed, but it stopped them from reaching an injured man that died. One driver was told that his van stinks, but he no longer smells death. Rescuers used to walk down the streets, or pound on the doors in apartments, calling out, “Evacuation!”, as if it was a medieval town struck by a plague.
During the last evacuation organized by the military, a family of seven with a two-year-old insisted on leaving together. They were attacked and a woman lost her leg. Like Kherson and other locations, the Russians deliberately hunt civilians even though it does not advance their military objectives. A small number of people still make their way out of the city on foot or riding on hand carts that others pulled. Evacuations by vehicle still happen at nearby Druzhkivka, which is 15 km from the front lines.
For those that remain, they scavenge scraps of wood and branches for fire, and venture out for food, knowing that they might be spotted and killed. Months ago, there were some, mostly old people, that still longed for the Soviet Union and were waiting for the Russians to come, but the drones don’t differentiate between civilians. It is unknown if those people survived or are still happily waiting for occupation. Those that are killed are buried near where they died because it is too dangerous to travel to the graveyards.
(…to be continued…)
Weren't those Tu-142s at Taganrog Airbase, Rostov oblast, about 150km from the frontline? And they were attacked as part of the same operation against an Iskander TEL. Isn't it likely that the Bears were targets of opportunity from surplus drones after the TEL was knocked out? Or is it possible they were being re-conditioned? They had been moved recently. It would be a desperate move but they could patrol off the Russian Black Sea coast to give warning of drone raids. That would make them legitimate targets.
Thanks Tom&Don.
Agree - flying 3500kms to hit a tomb… Hopefully the algorithms will improve but the surprise factor is already lost. So many Eastern European and especially Polish companies can offer better algorithms than Palantir