Don's Weekly, 1 July 2024: Part 4

(….continued from Part 3…)

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Ukraine

Drone operators are meanwhile a a separate branch in Ukraine’s armed forces…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1805850508587934094

Donetsk has often complained about being neglected by the government. Because of the fighting, there are a lot of issues in that region, including water supplies, housing and evacuations. Zelensky was not pleased to learn some officials hadn’t visited the region in more than six months…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1805866244182065170

Since March, Ukraine has lost more than 50% of its remaining energy production. Its pre-war production of 56 GW has been reduced to 18 GW. Ukraine used to be an energy exporter and the EU now sends 1.7 GW. The lack of air defenses is the reason why the energy system cannot be protected and repaired…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1805894414083981441

A 500 kg bomb landed in a Kharkiv house without exploding…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1806369381892690014

The Thermal Power Plant in the Ivano-Frankivsk region was destroyed beyond the capacity of repair…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1806672474798543288

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Diplomacy

North Korean engineers are heading to Ukraine to uphold their promise of helping defend Russia in the face of NATO aggression. A former member of Russia's parliament pointed out that China could send military equipment to North Korea without being sanctioned. North Korea could then send it to Russia. In reality, sanctions would follow…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34893

My vote is to have the Belarus take on the North Koreans…https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1806777061270224975

Zelensky and Orban were talking about something…https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1806332138008035661

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North Korea

It is unknown if Russia is paying for North Korean ammo or bartering for them. In 2022, North Korea had exports of $160 million, 97% of it with China. The value of the arms they exported is about $1 billion. Food is the largest shipment that North Korea received from Russia and that has stabilized prices. There are reports that North Korea’s factories are producing at full capacity but only a portion of the new shells are being sent to Russia.

The artillery shells they’ve been shipping to Russia that were produced in the ‘70s and ‘80s don’t function. The rest, produced as recently as January, 2024, need to be inspected and restored before use. Some shells exploded in the artillery barrels, destroying the gun and injuring or killing the crew. Shells have different amounts of gunpowder which changes firing characteristics. Some shells have open sealing covers that allow moisture into the gunpowder.

In 2010, North Korea used rockets to attack a South Korean island. Half didn’t reach the island and 25% didn’t explode.

Ukraine is a testing ground for North Korean missiles. Two of the 24 missiles fired at Kharkiv hit the city. Almost half of the 50 missiles that were fired exploded mid-air.

The production rate of ammo is unknown as is the number of stored rounds. The quality of the newer ammo is unknown. If North Korea sends its older stores of ammo first, it is unknown if the quality of the ammo will improve or if the same issues will persist. North Korea will retain some amount of ammo for its 10,000 artillery pieces and 5,500 rocket launchers. How much is left to send on to Russia remains to be seen…https://www.38north.org/2024/06/north-koreas-flawed-but-winning-strategy-in-ukraine

This D-30 howitzer calibre 122mm was destroyed when a shell burst inside the barrel.

Russia has different firing tables for mortars produced in Russia, Iran and North Korea due to different quality.

Defects in casting in 120 mm mortar shells results in erratic flight characteristics. Improper storage creates unstable munitions.

Disassembled North Korean 152 mm shells show the poor quality of work.

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Equipment

In the past, South Korea gave non-lethal aid to Ukraine, such as mine clearing equipment, and it gave 155 mm artillery shells to the US so the US could provide more shells from its stocks, but it did not give lethal aid directly to Ukraine.

When Israel decided to retire its eight Patriot batteries in April, there seemed little chance that they would send them to Ukraine because they were concerned about Russian actions in Syria and earlier refused to send air defense systems. There are now negotiations that some of those batteries might be sold to the US who would then send them to Ukraine along with a large number of missiles…https://www.ft.com/content/1c938d86-ab11-4d75-b005-1e02bf9b4dda

ICEYE is a Finnish microsatellite constellation that uses radar to create images from signals bouncing off the ground. Ukraine receives intelligence from many sources and in two years received 4,173 images from this source alone. 38% of these images were used to prepare attacks…https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1805855923765731681

The first shipments of ammo from the Czech initiative arrived some time ago. Ukraine will receive 100,000 rounds in June and 500,000 rounds by the end of the year.

Videos of Russian drones attacking Ukrainian drones continue to show up. Sometimes drones ram each other. Sometimes a Russian drone will shoot a net at a Ukrainian drone, preserving the Russian drone. Sometimes a Ukrainian drone will just use a stick, preserving the Ukrainian drone. There’s no indication of how widespread these attacks are but is certainly a fraction of 1%. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces jam each other’s drones and occasionally recover a very small amount of them.

The Yak-52 was built in the 1970’s as an elementary trainer. Ukraine is using it to destroy Russian drones flying far behind their lines. This is a view from a Russian drone as the person in the back seat aims his shotgun.

Spectrum analyzers can determine if drones are in the area and they can also check if your jammers are operational…https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1806401618092466287

Russia probably has four S500 air defense systems it is still developing. Ukraine said that components for an S500 system were placed in Crimea. There is a report that the radar of an S500 system was destroyed in Luhansk.

To avoid Russian jamming, Ukrainian drone operators will fly kilometers around the area that has been denied to reach their objective. Also, terrain blocks signals, so Ukrainian drone operators will sometimes fly low in the hopes that terrain will block Russian jamming signals. Since terrain would also block the radio signals for drones, the drone operator would need a clear line of sight to the drone while being unaffected by the jamming themselves. Both sides are developing AI so a drone can continue to attack targets it recognizes without direction from the drone operator…https://www.frontsight.vc/posts/the-fight-for-supreme-hive-mind-how-drone-defense-kickstarted-the-ai-supremacy-race

870 PAC-3 MSE missiles will be built between now and June, 2027. Reports of the cost vary from $4.5 billion to $5.3 billion.

A comparison between the Czech and Polish defense forces…https://x.com/Danny_elMayor/status/1806699896709206273