Don's Weekly, 9 December 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!

Yes, the last week, I’ve been busy following meteoric developments in Syria. Of course, I’m monitoring those in Ukraine as well: the ‘sole problem’ is researching, writing and posting all of that - and doing my ‘usual job’ as well. There are limits and I can’t do more at the same time. To your and my luck, Donald is so kind to continue collecting all the news and preparing his weekly summaries.

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Kursk

After catastrophic failures of two counteroffensives in as many months, Putin replaced the governor of Kursk. Stated reasons are such like ineffective fortifications, widespread protests and discontent from displaced residents, and clashes with local municipal leaders. Ukrainian defenses held: actually, the ZSU attacked Novoivanovka and Darino.

1A) A Russian troop concentration was hit north of Karyzh, and 1B) pontoon operations north of Zvannoye were hit, both by GMRLS.

2) Russian front line logistical vehicles are attacked between Zvannoye and Glushkovo.

3) A Bradley is damaged by a drone near Novy Put.

4) In the woods around Darino, Marines of the 36th Brigade kill and capture Russians. Before the snows, a Ukrainian T-64 was damaged by a drone after firing on Russian positions in the middle of the village. A Leopard tank operating on the southern edge of the village loses its engine to drone attacks. Both tanks were from the 17th Tank Brigade. A Russian BMD was destroyed before it reached Darino. Drones from the 225th Battalion also went to work on Russian infantry around the village. On December 7th, a BTR, a T-72 and 10 BMD’s were destroyed.

5) Drones of the 47th Brigade destroy Russian vehicles before they can reach the fight at Novoivanovka.

6) Russian drones hunt Ukrainian infantry in Pogrebki.

7) A Russian advance into Cherkasskaya Konopelka was met with a Ukrainian airstrike.

Old Video: When the Russians launched their attack against Pogrebki a month ago there were a lot of video segments released but here’s a compilation of them in a 4 minute segment.

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Kharkiv

The front lines didn’t change but there was still activity. East of Vovchansk, a Russian BMP is immobilized by a mine and later destroyed by a drone from a regiment of the Lyut Police Brigade.

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Kupiansk

North of Dvorichne, Ukraine had been defending along the Oskil river, a sector that saw little to no activity and there weren’t very many troops on either side of the river. The Russians crossed the small river and pushed the local troops out of their positions. An effective defense would have local reserve forces that would conduct an immediate counterattack before the Russians could consolidate their positions: after all, the experience already since the times of the Second World War is that, whenever the Soviets - and nowadays the Russians - have a bridgehead, they promptly focus on that point and then rush all of their available assets to exploit the opportunity.

Limited manpower is an issue for Ukraine, and managing that limited manpower is yet another issue. There was no local reserve, and there was no operational-level reserve nearby. Therefore, the General Staff of Ukraine did what it’s always doing in such situations (why learn any kind of lessons?) and detached a battalion from the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade deployed in the Siversk area to send it to the site of the crossing.

The 10th Brigade troops took up positions, familiarized themselves with the terrain and used drones to determine the number of Russian troops, the equipment they had and their behaviors. And they planned.

As expected, the Russians launched an assault out of the bridgehead to probe the Ukrainian defenses, find a crack and then send in troops to fill that crack and push the Ukrainians back. However, the 10th Mountain Assault is one of ‘those’ brigades of the ZSU, where the commanders care about recruiting, training and well-being of their troops. And where their commands are highly-effective. What the Russians thus found was that the battalion from the 10th Brigade had enough troops for the ground they were defending. There is a report that 3 BMPs and 20 Russians were killed. But the 10th Brigade troops didn’t just conduct a passive defense. They immediately counterattacked according to plan, and once they reached the Russian positions they rolled them up and eliminated the bridgehead. Given the 10th Brigade’s effective defense in the Siversk sector, this came as no surprise.

The successful counterattack was great news, of course. On the other hand, with no local reserve, with no regional reserve, and with no general reserve, a battalion had to be detached from a brigade which further contributed to the fragmentation of a cohesive unit.

South of Dvorichna (different village), the Russians made a similar crossing about 2 km wide. The front there has been static for a week. Presently, it is not known if that 10th Brigade’s battalion will stay and defend its position at Dvorichne, or move south to expel the Russians from Dvorichna, or if it will eventually be reunited with the rest of its brigade.

In the rest of the Kupiansk area, Russia continued to attack around Synkivka. The only change in the front lines was a slow expansion of Russia’s position south of Pishchane.

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Siversk

The lines were stable but Ukrainian drones destroyed logistical vehicles, infantry, artillery and armored vehicles. Another drone fights through a loss of signal to destroy a tank. Russian artillery targets a Ukrainian position.

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Chasiv Yar

Early this week, there were critical moments as the Russians launched an attack into the centre of Chasif Yar. Meanwhile, Ukraine was able to push the Russians back - both out of the centre and the southern approaches to the town.

A Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian position in Chasiv Yar. The 5th Assault Brigade attacks a lot of Russian targets with drones and destroys some of them.

Digging positions is always hard work. It’s harder when the ground is frozen but the deeper earth isn’t frozen yet. The fighting positions you see in these videos indicate disciplined units with good tradecraft. Two Ukrainian defenders confront the next Russian assault. If they stop it, another one will come after that. This Ukrainian position is supported by a tank.

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Toretsk

Almost all the activity over the last week was south of Toretsk, where Russia was consolidating its positions. The Lyut Police Brigade drones were used to help defend an assault against a nearby unit. One of the scattered battalions of the Presidential Brigade uses drones on Russian infantry. The 100th Brigade also uses drones. The 17th Tank Brigade had elements in both Kursk and Toretsk, and its battalion in Toretsk was destroying Russian positions at point blank range. Russians in a building are suppressed by gunfire so Ukrainian infantry could place explosives that collapsed the building.

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September video: At this point Russia was trying to push out of Niu York and west of Toretsk. The tanks of the Azov Brigade tank battalion were destroying Russian positions from point blank range. There was already a good chance that Russia wouldn’t have AT weapons but for whatever reason there were no Russian drones. It’s possible the Azov Brigade was able to gain temporary EW superiority before the tanks were sent out. The locations of the video were mapped below.

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(…to be continued…)