Checklist of Ukrainian Failures
Hello everybody!
For those who might have missed it: Zele has decided he’s not going to sack anybody. Read: he remains out of touch with reality, and determined to continue blundering around - with the consequence that Ukraine is going to continue losing this war.
Now, irrespectively how much have Donald and me published about failures of Ukrainian political- and military leadership over the last 1,5 years, there are still lots of readers asking where are the probelms. Thus, have asked Frank to ready something like a checklist.
No problem: here it comes.
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I. STRATEGIC-LEVEL PLANNING FAILURES
1. No Coherent “Whole-War” Mobilization Concept (2022–2023)
Mobilization waves were improvised, reactive, and politically constrained.
Ukraine never created a sustained industrial-manpower pipeline that could support long-duration positional warfare.
Result: severe replacement deficits by mid-2023; collapse of brigade manpower by late 2024.
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2. Overreliance on NATO Training Concepts Misaligned with Ukrainian Terrain
NATO brigade-level maneuver doctrine assumes:
air superiority
high ISR saturation
robust logistics
deep fires dominance
Ukraine had none of these conditions.
Result: 2023 counteroffensive failed at the doctrinal level before it began. (Additional massive mistakes in decision-making - see the list below - then prevented recovery of the ZSU).
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3. Persistent Mis-assessment of Russian Regeneration Capacity
Kyiv planners assumed Russian losses in 2022 were strategically decisive.
Russia expanded force to 1.3–1.5 million by 2024.
Failure to anticipate force expansion led to:
underestimation of Russian offensive potential
wrong force-allocation choices
failure to prepare fallback belts
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4. Absence of a Multi-Year Ammunition Production Plan
No strategic domestic production of:
artillery shells
UAV engines
fuel-air munitions
EW systems
Ukraine depended on unpredictable Western stockpiles.
Result: Russia retained a 7:1–15:1 artillery dominance (late 2023–2025).
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5. No National Air Defense Prioritization Framework
Nasams/IRIS-T/PATRIOT deployment was politically influenced.
Critical nodes (Pavlohrad Chemical Plant, TEC-5, Dnipro rail junctions) were not constantly protected.
Result: Russia systematically degraded Ukrainian energy and ammunition production.
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II. OPERATIONAL-LEVEL FAILURES
6. Failure to Sequence Defensive Lines with Depth
Defensive belts (Kupiansk, Bakhmut, Pokrovsk line) were:
shallow
unconnected
inconsistent between brigades
Result: once one node failed, the entire belt collapsed (e.g., Avdiivka, Ocheretyne, Pokrovsk-Mirnograd axis).
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7. Misallocation of Elite Formations (2022–2024)
Elite air assault brigades (46th, 79th, 80th, 95th) were sent into attritional fights without operational purpose.
Result: catastrophic depletion; elite VDV-like mobile reserve evaporated by 2024.
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8. Failure to Build a Mobile Reserve
No operational-level reserve to plug Russian breakthroughs.
Russia could create localized 5:1–8:1 manpower ratios.
Result: rapid collapses at:
Lyman (2023)
Avdiivka (2024)
Toretsk-Pokrovsk (2025)
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9. Inability to Integrate Artillery, UAVs, and EW into a Single Kill-Chain
Ukrainian brigades often used:
stovepiped targeting
uncoordinated ISR feeds
non-standard UAV protocols
Russian forces executed a unified kill-web (Orlan-ZALA-Leer-Lancet-artillery).
Result: Ukrainian brigades were destroyed piecemeal.
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10. Logistic Corridors Never Hardened
The M-04, M-18, R-66, R-85, and Bakhmut–Kostiantynivka corridors remained:
open
exposed
unmapped for alternate routing
Result: predictable Russian interdiction that repeatedly collapsed ZSU supply.
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TACTICAL-LEVEL FAILURES
11. Failure to Adapt to Russian Layered Drone Dominance
ZSU lagged 9–14 months behind Russian adaptations.
Ukraine fielded diverse, non-standard drones; Russia deployed
mass-fabricated FPVs
EW-coordinated loitering munitions
automated targeting swarms
Result: catastrophic Ukrainian vehicle losses from 2023 onward.
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12. Trench Systems Not Built to Withstand Russian Glide Bombs
No hardened bunkers or deep egress shelters.
Russia’s FAB-250/500/1500 glide bombs shattered fortified zones.
Result: positional defenses made irrelevant.
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13. Overuse of Pickup-Truck Motorized “Assault Groups”
“McGuyver mechanization” exposed troops:
no armor
predictable routes
zero protection from FPVs
Result: extreme casualty rates and rapid brigade degradation.
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COMMAND & CONTROL FAILURES
14. Excessive Brigade Fragmentation
Brigades were split into company-group fragments and misused as “fire brigades.”
No concentration of effect.
Result: brigades broke faster and lost cohesion.
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15. No Unified Drone/EW Command Structure
Competing internal agencies and “volunteer drone battalions” operated independently.
No centralized doctrine.
Result: failure to contest Russian electromagnetic spectrum control.
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16. Political Leadership Interference in Operational Decisions
Repeated “hold at all costs” orders:
Severodonetsk (2022)
Bakhmut (2022–2023)
Avdiivka (2023–2024)
Pokrovsk (2024-2025).
Result: destruction of entire seasoned formations.
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17. Unrealistic Assessments of Manpower Levels
Commanders reported inflated readiness to avoid political consequence.
Result: offensive and defensive plans built on fictional strength numbers.
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MANPOWER SYSTEM FAILURES
18. Catastrophic Under-Rotation
Units remained on front lines 180–300+ days with no rotation.
Result: mental collapse, desertion spikes, and combat-ineffective brigades.
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19. No Strategic Reserve After 2023
Mobilization attrition outpaced training throughput.
Result: by 2025 entire ZSU lacks cohesion or operational capability.
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20. Degradation of Experienced NCO Corps
Casualties among 2022–2023 NCOs destroyed the backbone of the ZSU.
Replacement NCOs were minimally trained.
Result: collapse of small-unit tactical proficiency.
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Hope, this is simple-to-follow enough.
The only conclusion left to add is that by now it’s crystal clear that with Zele/Yermak remaining in power, nothing of this is going change. Not an inch. The reason is that this regime has proven itself as completely incapable of learning any kind of lessons from its own mistakes, and completely incapable of reforming (whether itself, or the system of governance, and the way the armed forces are organised and commanded).
Unsurprisingly, the leadership of the ZSU is as advice-resistant as the that of the Imperial Japanese Navy in the late 1930s and early 1940s. How the latter ended, should be well-known.
This is leading to the assessment that further degeneration of Ukraine’s capability to resist the Russian invasion is a predetermined matter of fact. Current estimates for the ZSU’s ultimate loss of capability to continue resisting - i.e. something like ‘estimated time to total collapse’ - are ranging from 4-6 to 8-10 months.
Sounds like we are doomed. Not sure about the time frame. But it sounds like there is no way out of this.
Considering the political/coruption processes inside the country, people won't go out to change the top. People just blab but it is not enough critical mass to push people to the street and make another maidan. Okay, some moneys were stolen. But who cares about that much? People write blogs, articles with outrages and big words. But no action.
People on top will not fire themselves by definition. If the "top" is stupid/dumb and do not realize that ZSU is going to crash soon, they will continue this war/corruption on the blood for sure.
Damn... Totally trapped. What is the best action for a simple citizen living here? I have no idea. This is so apocalyptical. ZSU cannot sustain this kind of mis-management anymore. People inside know this and call for action. Nobody listens on the top. They are busy doing their own personal war.
Here I am. I have noone to talk about this. I do not want to distress my family, n-th time talking them about doom. I'm sitting in the suburbs of Kyiv without grid for 2nd day in a row. We have power for like 7 hours per day. This is so ominous that we lost power after attack that happened after we found out how much money they stole from eletricity companies. It may be coincidence. Looking from my window at private houses outside. It is pitch black with a few yellow-colored windows here and there. People adapted: spent money to have power for outages. People here have not ever trusted the goverment. Goverment was always in opposition to people, more or less. People get used to living in spite of govemerment stupidity, ignorance and greed. I almost can sense that anarchy is in the blood of people here. Anarchy may be an adaptation to these conditions. I mean central Ukraine. Imagine how much more anarchistic and independent are people in the west districts.
I feel surprised this week. But not because of the top stealing money. I am surprised because it was revealed on a grand scale and because the top is acting like they have nothing to do with it. It looks like people on top used people on the bottom again, for personal gains, and with much incompetence as possible. But this time they are brazen about it. Too confident and maybe a little too dumb. I have read what people from Rada think about the mood of the main dude. They think that he has lost touch with reality. He cannot admit to himself how everybody around is angry at him and how he became close or more like synonymous with Yanukovich's image. That guy was very out of touch with reality as well. And we all know how he has ended.
All that propaganda [to mobilize people] of first 2 years brough us nothing because it has failed miserably. Politics totally destroyed reputation of ZSU with how they concocted mobilization. Maybe it was their idea because politics were afraid of peope in the army. Anyway, I hope all is not lost and while we are walking on the thin ice, there will be our chance to change things. We cannot do that at this moment because of war, at least officially. Maidain during war is a very, very dangerous thing that could lead to military dictatorship.
Some people here try to brush off all this nonsense like it does not matter. People on the top just rearranging chairs, that kind of nonsense. But to me it sounds all too serious right now. There are too many signals from different people workng with ZSU, that failure to reform ZSU will have disastrous long-term effects. I think that it is very-very important. And if we do not do this near-term, there will be no Ukraine no more.
Thank you for attention.