…fucking trump played “bait and switch” with Zelensky who he said will give patriots and after Zelensky gave trump proprietary ukrainian design drone to produce in US trump backed down
The Trump administration is using delays in granting permits for the production and supply of scarce missiles as a means of pressure to force Zelenskyy to hand over all drone technology. The best thing would be to tell this administration of Kremlin puppets to go to hell and expel the ambassadors from Ukraine back to the U.S. As for them, let them go ahead and kiss each other’s asses and gums—whether it’s with Putin or Netanyahu.
Thank you so much. You should teach warfare in schools and university for people who are no experts. You realky really know your subject that is why you explain it do well to nonspecialists.
Your breakdown provides a sharp operational snapshot of Ukraine’s air defense reality, but evaluating this campaign requires zooming out to broader strategic and doctrinal frameworks. Here is a streamlined breakdown of key considerations:
Key Strategic & Doctrinal Dynamics
Air Defense vs. Strategic Offense Analysis: We must be very careful when analyzing the current war solely through isolated intercept percentages. Air Defense (AD) is not a series of 1-on-1 duels; it is an integrated system-of-systems fighting against a combined-arms strategy designed to overload, bypass, or exhaust those defenses.
Historical Proxy Context: The last direct, peer-block proxy wars involving high-intensity air defense duels were Vietnam and the aftermath of the Fifth Arab-Israeli War in Lebanon (1982–1983). In 1982 (Bekaa Valley), Western-equipped forces dismantled Soviet-supplied air defenses; today, we are witnessing the modern inverse: Soviet-heritage and Western systems being subjected to massed, multi-vector saturation campaigns.
The Saturation Testbed: Russian and NATO military planners are actively using this conflict to develop and refine an evolving framework of saturation patterns versus integrated air defense forces—constantly testing launch sequencing, trajectory variations, and sensor clutter.
Interdependent Proxy War Theaters: The war since fall 2023 cannot be viewed in isolation. It is part of a cluster of interdependent proxy war theaters (alongside the Middle East and potential East Asian flashpoints), where interceptor consumption in one directly degrades supply-side availability in another.
High-End vs. Low-End Saturation: While ballistic missiles (Iskander-M, Kinzhal, KN-23B) represent high-end threats compared to jet-powered drones or older cruise missiles, the underlying saturation logic is identical: exceed the defense's processing bandwidth and drain finite magazines.
Economics & "Salvo Rentability": Because defeating a single ballistic threat typically requires launching more than one interceptor to ensure a kill, the cost equation favors the attacker. A combined KN-23B and S-400 ground-attack salvo is highly "rentable" (cost-effective) if it succeeds in draining a $4M-per-shot PAC-3 battery's finite magazine.
The Unknown Attrition Ratio: While Ukrainian forces have neutralized a few Iskander-M Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs), open-source intelligence is asymmetrical—we do not know how many Ukrainian Patriot batteries or engagement radars have been rendered "mission killed" or degraded by Russian strikes.
Conclusion
Targeting upstream production, launchers, and logistics remains the only sustainable way to break the attritional math of static point defense against massed ballistic saturation but both blocks did calculate early on - as North Korean Military Industry complex was developed exactly to create safe strategic rear to the Russians - where China' involvement is deniable - the same way the Ukrainian drones and CMs as well as the ballistic missiles next year will not be genuine Ukrainian developments - but unlike in the case of Taurus or Tomahawk missile complexes - the West can also keep a low profile - just like China...
Jóember, szerinted én ruszki fan vagyok, ha itt vagy és olvasod, akkor neked komoly kognitív gondjaid vannak…amúgy meg tévedhetek is, tessék vitázni…azzal, hogy puffogsz, csak magadról állítasz ki egy látványos bizonyítványt - szép estét
Ez így elég béna - ha nincs otthon elég szex, akkor a frusztrációddal please, ne ide gyere, illetve gyere, de akkor vagy kénytelen-kelletlen beleállsz a vitákba vagy maradhatsz a mostani egybites üzemmódban - enjoy 😁
There have been several Iskander attacks with large casualties at training sites, award ceremonies, HIMARS, armored vehicles, airfields, factories, storage facilities, railway stations, and energy grid targets. The Iskander missiles will continue to be a threat until they are eliminated.
if I was US CINC, I would be granting licenses on PAC-3 to allies left and right, in order to increase production, even without licensing fees to boost overall production. Japan, Germany, (S,Korea has already own missiles) is good start, but UK, Poland, anmd most importantly Ukraine would be great addition.
Of course Trump being Trump he will brag something about doing it, then do exactly nothing...
That would be a rational response to quickly defeating a common threat. Simply being prepared after Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine in 2014 would have been good planning. But no one that had the power to make these decisions could forsee a full, open invasion by Russia.
That full invasion was so irrational and damaging to Russia that no wonder no one had it on their bingo card.
Look at 2020 Putin: he got his small victorious wars, he is domestically popular, and he gets richer by day on selling fuels to EU.
Then he throws it all away, loses million casualties, loses lucrative markets, gets Finland and Sweden into NATO, gets overtly dependent on China, almost gets ousted by Prigozhin off all people...
Prior to Pearl Harbor, there was a faction in Japan that warned against attacking America, saying that Japan relied on the US for oil and they didn't have the industrial capability for a long war. The militarists won, so Japan ended up losing.
There were people in Russia that opposed the open invasion, but there are reports that after 2014, the so-called 'liberal' faction no longer had access to Putin, that he only talked to a small circle of people, and that he valued loyalty above all. Certainly, some believed Russia would win a war against Ukraine. Reportedly, if any in that small circle had any objections, they didn't voice them. Putin wanted to invade, so they found reasons to agree. Outside of that circle, there were many that were shocked by the invasion and disagreed.
It is certain that there were those in the Trump administration that counseled against attacking Iran. One high-ranking official resigned after the attack. Trump fired more than 20 top-ranking generals and admirals since taking office, including firing the top uniformed legal officers of each branch in the military. At least one more general was fired after the attack. Facts and analysis didn't matter. In his first year in office, Trump conducted strikes in Iraq, Syria, Somalia and Nigeria. He attacked boats he claimed were drug smugglers, when the US Coast Guard previously pulled them over without loss of life and found no drugs on 20% of the boats they pulled over. He was involved in a prolonged fight, with the expenditure of many missiles (and a couple of aircraft) that accomplished nothing in Yemen. And he seized the head of Venezuela. Valuing loyalty over competence, Trump was going to do what he wanted to do and anyone that objected would be removed. Certainly, none in the Republican-controlled House and Senate would object.
When power is centralized in the hands of few people and there are no checks or balances on that power, irrational decisions are always a risk to the world.
Some would say that the sole point of centralizing power is to avoid having to deal with reality and rationality. Once you get to the point any consequence is the problem of underlings and they better deal with it (or be fired or even shot) there is no much need for rational thought.
I have an important technical question: Given all the research & analysis you must undertake regarding the technical, organizational, and political complexities of the Ukraine war, the Gaza war, and the Iran war, and the time it takes to prepare/write your posts on your Substack blog & to reply to various comments, and your publishing efforts ... where do you find the time to sleep in any 24 hours period of time?
Well I guess I blew that one! I didn't read the author line under the title of this substack post. I can only conclude therefore that Tom, although the great Sarcastosaurus, is not really the super-duper, turbo Sarcastosaurus. Only a mere super Sarcastosaurus that actually is not too bad given all the cretins out there (includinf the MSM) who post as if they really knew what they were talking about. I also wonder if Tom is really "right about everything" as Mr. MAGA-nificent so claims about his not-so-illustrious, perverted orange-hair self? **ROFLOL**
It is a serious problem. There are other trends that are favoring Ukraine. It will be hard for the Russian economy and military to function without fuel.
Ukrainian farmers will be decimated even without russists missile strikes.
Ukrainian grain export is technically halted by Black Sea ports blockade. As per relative Ukrainian farmer last year price for the wheat grain Class ** was ~10,000 hryvna/tonne (which is close to Canadian wheat price today), this year it is 3,000 hryvna/tonne.
It is cheaper to leave it in the field when you consider all the expenses: labor, fuel, equipment, trucking, storage, land rental fees ("pai"), etc.
Breakeven vs. Market Price: Input expenses (diesel fuel for combines, field labor, machinery wear, inland trucking, grain drying, and land rental/pai obligations) often total $100–$130 CAD per tonne depending on yield. Selling at ~3,000 UAH (~$75 CAD) means every harvested tonne increases a farmer's total debt.
Information aquired , great article .. how about assasinating the engineers building these ? They are no civilians ..and the know how must take some time to be aquired by some students . I would treat engineers as more valuable targets then some colonel or general
You have to identfy them and access them. I don't know how many Russians have been assassinated in four years. 15? The best way to kill the engineers is to attack their workplace with drones and missiles.
Thank you for this analysis. I heard on the news today that all ballistic missiles shot at Kyiv got through. It is clear that the only way of stopping these attacks is to hit launchers and production facilities. Including of course through sanctions, but I don’t have high hopes here. The third way which you don’t mention is «taking it on the chin». Endure. Thus is of course not a strategy as much as survival. I saw that all these missiles had done destructions at warehouses. Those are valuable, but there is a price tag on these missiles too. For the rest of us? We really should think about what we are selling to whom. Really.
This is the best analysis I’ve read on this subject. Thank you for such a deep, detailed, and exceptionally well-structured piece.
…fucking trump played “bait and switch” with Zelensky who he said will give patriots and after Zelensky gave trump proprietary ukrainian design drone to produce in US trump backed down
The Trump administration is using delays in granting permits for the production and supply of scarce missiles as a means of pressure to force Zelenskyy to hand over all drone technology. The best thing would be to tell this administration of Kremlin puppets to go to hell and expel the ambassadors from Ukraine back to the U.S. As for them, let them go ahead and kiss each other’s asses and gums—whether it’s with Putin or Netanyahu.
Your work is tremendous, the depth of your research and the way you explain complex topics is truly impressive. Thank you for sharing it . .
Really good article, thanks for the in-depth explanation!
Thank you so much. You should teach warfare in schools and university for people who are no experts. You realky really know your subject that is why you explain it do well to nonspecialists.
We're teaching warfare here on this blog: at least our readers are above-average informed. ;-)
ballistic missiles are only a part of the picture. Russia is currently using Banderols to effectively cut off Odessa from the sea.
Your breakdown provides a sharp operational snapshot of Ukraine’s air defense reality, but evaluating this campaign requires zooming out to broader strategic and doctrinal frameworks. Here is a streamlined breakdown of key considerations:
Key Strategic & Doctrinal Dynamics
Air Defense vs. Strategic Offense Analysis: We must be very careful when analyzing the current war solely through isolated intercept percentages. Air Defense (AD) is not a series of 1-on-1 duels; it is an integrated system-of-systems fighting against a combined-arms strategy designed to overload, bypass, or exhaust those defenses.
Historical Proxy Context: The last direct, peer-block proxy wars involving high-intensity air defense duels were Vietnam and the aftermath of the Fifth Arab-Israeli War in Lebanon (1982–1983). In 1982 (Bekaa Valley), Western-equipped forces dismantled Soviet-supplied air defenses; today, we are witnessing the modern inverse: Soviet-heritage and Western systems being subjected to massed, multi-vector saturation campaigns.
The Saturation Testbed: Russian and NATO military planners are actively using this conflict to develop and refine an evolving framework of saturation patterns versus integrated air defense forces—constantly testing launch sequencing, trajectory variations, and sensor clutter.
Interdependent Proxy War Theaters: The war since fall 2023 cannot be viewed in isolation. It is part of a cluster of interdependent proxy war theaters (alongside the Middle East and potential East Asian flashpoints), where interceptor consumption in one directly degrades supply-side availability in another.
High-End vs. Low-End Saturation: While ballistic missiles (Iskander-M, Kinzhal, KN-23B) represent high-end threats compared to jet-powered drones or older cruise missiles, the underlying saturation logic is identical: exceed the defense's processing bandwidth and drain finite magazines.
Economics & "Salvo Rentability": Because defeating a single ballistic threat typically requires launching more than one interceptor to ensure a kill, the cost equation favors the attacker. A combined KN-23B and S-400 ground-attack salvo is highly "rentable" (cost-effective) if it succeeds in draining a $4M-per-shot PAC-3 battery's finite magazine.
The Unknown Attrition Ratio: While Ukrainian forces have neutralized a few Iskander-M Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs), open-source intelligence is asymmetrical—we do not know how many Ukrainian Patriot batteries or engagement radars have been rendered "mission killed" or degraded by Russian strikes.
Conclusion
Targeting upstream production, launchers, and logistics remains the only sustainable way to break the attritional math of static point defense against massed ballistic saturation but both blocks did calculate early on - as North Korean Military Industry complex was developed exactly to create safe strategic rear to the Russians - where China' involvement is deniable - the same way the Ukrainian drones and CMs as well as the ballistic missiles next year will not be genuine Ukrainian developments - but unlike in the case of Taurus or Tomahawk missile complexes - the West can also keep a low profile - just like China...
Senkit nem érdekel az AI szarod csicskageci. Kussolj el, örökre, faszfej.
Jóember, szerinted én ruszki fan vagyok, ha itt vagy és olvasod, akkor neked komoly kognitív gondjaid vannak…amúgy meg tévedhetek is, tessék vitázni…azzal, hogy puffogsz, csak magadról állítasz ki egy látványos bizonyítványt - szép estét
Mondtam már hogy egyél szart, köcsög? Amúgy nyomorékokkal nem vitázom. Teljesen fölösleges időpazarlás :)
Ez így elég béna - ha nincs otthon elég szex, akkor a frusztrációddal please, ne ide gyere, illetve gyere, de akkor vagy kénytelen-kelletlen beleállsz a vitákba vagy maradhatsz a mostani egybites üzemmódban - enjoy 😁
anyád sírja merre van, kéne egy kurva nagyot fosnom és jó szpot lenne?
Neked ebben mégis mi a jó…ez valami kognitív disszonancia szimptóma nálad? Amúgy anyám sírja pont anyád sírja fölött van ;-)
Excellent and detailed. Thank you for this, very much appreciated 👍
How will this affect the AFU?
There have been several Iskander attacks with large casualties at training sites, award ceremonies, HIMARS, armored vehicles, airfields, factories, storage facilities, railway stations, and energy grid targets. The Iskander missiles will continue to be a threat until they are eliminated.
Thank you for this excellent analysis - much appreciated.
if I was US CINC, I would be granting licenses on PAC-3 to allies left and right, in order to increase production, even without licensing fees to boost overall production. Japan, Germany, (S,Korea has already own missiles) is good start, but UK, Poland, anmd most importantly Ukraine would be great addition.
Of course Trump being Trump he will brag something about doing it, then do exactly nothing...
That would be a rational response to quickly defeating a common threat. Simply being prepared after Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine in 2014 would have been good planning. But no one that had the power to make these decisions could forsee a full, open invasion by Russia.
That full invasion was so irrational and damaging to Russia that no wonder no one had it on their bingo card.
Look at 2020 Putin: he got his small victorious wars, he is domestically popular, and he gets richer by day on selling fuels to EU.
Then he throws it all away, loses million casualties, loses lucrative markets, gets Finland and Sweden into NATO, gets overtly dependent on China, almost gets ousted by Prigozhin off all people...
It is on attacking Pearl Harbor level of failure.
Prior to Pearl Harbor, there was a faction in Japan that warned against attacking America, saying that Japan relied on the US for oil and they didn't have the industrial capability for a long war. The militarists won, so Japan ended up losing.
There were people in Russia that opposed the open invasion, but there are reports that after 2014, the so-called 'liberal' faction no longer had access to Putin, that he only talked to a small circle of people, and that he valued loyalty above all. Certainly, some believed Russia would win a war against Ukraine. Reportedly, if any in that small circle had any objections, they didn't voice them. Putin wanted to invade, so they found reasons to agree. Outside of that circle, there were many that were shocked by the invasion and disagreed.
It is certain that there were those in the Trump administration that counseled against attacking Iran. One high-ranking official resigned after the attack. Trump fired more than 20 top-ranking generals and admirals since taking office, including firing the top uniformed legal officers of each branch in the military. At least one more general was fired after the attack. Facts and analysis didn't matter. In his first year in office, Trump conducted strikes in Iraq, Syria, Somalia and Nigeria. He attacked boats he claimed were drug smugglers, when the US Coast Guard previously pulled them over without loss of life and found no drugs on 20% of the boats they pulled over. He was involved in a prolonged fight, with the expenditure of many missiles (and a couple of aircraft) that accomplished nothing in Yemen. And he seized the head of Venezuela. Valuing loyalty over competence, Trump was going to do what he wanted to do and anyone that objected would be removed. Certainly, none in the Republican-controlled House and Senate would object.
When power is centralized in the hands of few people and there are no checks or balances on that power, irrational decisions are always a risk to the world.
Some would say that the sole point of centralizing power is to avoid having to deal with reality and rationality. Once you get to the point any consequence is the problem of underlings and they better deal with it (or be fired or even shot) there is no much need for rational thought.
I have an important technical question: Given all the research & analysis you must undertake regarding the technical, organizational, and political complexities of the Ukraine war, the Gaza war, and the Iran war, and the time it takes to prepare/write your posts on your Substack blog & to reply to various comments, and your publishing efforts ... where do you find the time to sleep in any 24 hours period of time?
I would get more sleep but I need to set time aside for hockey games.
Well I guess I blew that one! I didn't read the author line under the title of this substack post. I can only conclude therefore that Tom, although the great Sarcastosaurus, is not really the super-duper, turbo Sarcastosaurus. Only a mere super Sarcastosaurus that actually is not too bad given all the cretins out there (includinf the MSM) who post as if they really knew what they were talking about. I also wonder if Tom is really "right about everything" as Mr. MAGA-nificent so claims about his not-so-illustrious, perverted orange-hair self? **ROFLOL**
He's pretty super-duper. He probably sleeps less than I do.
Western media are claiming today that 80% of their THAAD missiles have been used and 50% of Patriots.
Hard to believe, but certainly air defense missile depletion must be a factor in US military planning on attacking Iran.
It should be anyway. But sometimes those making decisions aren't concerned by details.
I knew we were in deep shit here in Ukraine... but I didn't know it was this deep.
It is a serious problem. There are other trends that are favoring Ukraine. It will be hard for the Russian economy and military to function without fuel.
Ukrainian farmers will be decimated even without russists missile strikes.
Ukrainian grain export is technically halted by Black Sea ports blockade. As per relative Ukrainian farmer last year price for the wheat grain Class ** was ~10,000 hryvna/tonne (which is close to Canadian wheat price today), this year it is 3,000 hryvna/tonne.
It is cheaper to leave it in the field when you consider all the expenses: labor, fuel, equipment, trucking, storage, land rental fees ("pai"), etc.
AI:
Breakeven vs. Market Price: Input expenses (diesel fuel for combines, field labor, machinery wear, inland trucking, grain drying, and land rental/pai obligations) often total $100–$130 CAD per tonne depending on yield. Selling at ~3,000 UAH (~$75 CAD) means every harvested tonne increases a farmer's total debt.
I worked on a farm in Germany for a summer. They have a lot of assets but their margins are thin. It doesn't take much to bankrupt their operations.
The Russian farmers are having the same issues because of fuel prices.
That's why both Don and me are warning about this for at least 2,5 years... back then, there was still the time to awert this situation.
...would have required reasonable governance, though: and that's not available - anywhere from Honolulu to Kyiv, already since longer...
Information aquired , great article .. how about assasinating the engineers building these ? They are no civilians ..and the know how must take some time to be aquired by some students . I would treat engineers as more valuable targets then some colonel or general
You have to identfy them and access them. I don't know how many Russians have been assassinated in four years. 15? The best way to kill the engineers is to attack their workplace with drones and missiles.
Thank you for this analysis. I heard on the news today that all ballistic missiles shot at Kyiv got through. It is clear that the only way of stopping these attacks is to hit launchers and production facilities. Including of course through sanctions, but I don’t have high hopes here. The third way which you don’t mention is «taking it on the chin». Endure. Thus is of course not a strategy as much as survival. I saw that all these missiles had done destructions at warehouses. Those are valuable, but there is a price tag on these missiles too. For the rest of us? We really should think about what we are selling to whom. Really.
I read that they also hit a train station and a brewery, killing people at both places.
Ukraine has endured a lot and they have to endure more. And they will. It's a race to reduce the pain.
Yes. Unfortunately.