What you saying here is not news to any intelligence in united stupid america, but IQ47 does not listen to them or has them make Fox News type programs for him to watch, because he reads less than my 2 year old toddler.
I'm fine with paying more for gas, because watching IQ47 doing Puddings 3 day SMO is well worth it! Watching half the country and almost all of GOP support him, priceless!
Yes, yes, civilians die, very bad, but it's the cost of demolishing current "world order", which is no better than what Mad Max had.
I still don't get why people are afraid of total nuclear war. 90% of this planet population are useless, greedy, selfish, ignorant morons anyway. How else we got the leaders we currently have or had for past...whatever timeframe leaders were chosen to begin with.
I suggest anyone, as I suggested my kids, family, friends, that ignore anything and everything outside your bubble. Spend time with family and friends, because there were wars, genocide and all the horrible crap for thousands of years before us and will be thousands of years after we are gone. It is what it is.
There will, just not the way we think. We will soon be entering the era of peace and prosperity brought upon they world by the imminent rise of first Xi dynasty
well, both actually. The world order lead by the USA is clearly disinteresting. China surpassed the US in industrial output in 2014 and now has double the US industrial output. So the empire is collapsing. Another one should rise, no?
Alternatively it can be like after the collapse of the Roman Empire. Part of the Empire continued in the east (Europe nowadays?) The rest entered a millennia of chaos and barbarism.
Who knows?
Just a note - if I remember correctly, the average lifetime of a mammalian species is about seven million years, so there is is time ...
1) So you expect from a murderous ruler with zero (0) empathy an era of peace and prosperity? (Hint: Study his life, look what the Chinese do in Tibet, with the Uighurs, with the members of the Falun Gong...).
2) If you want to spread PR BS for China then no further discussion needed.
3) The western part of the Roman Empire was the ONLY existing organized state in Europe and Christianity was hostile to education at that time, so that comparison doesn't fit at all.
4) As you are a believer in statistics, so your own life is just statistics? (Yes that was sarcastic).
The Roman Empire moved it's capital from Rome to Constantinople (today's Istanbul). The western part disintegrated and chaos and barbarism ensued. The eastern part continued, formally for the another millennium, in reality until the end of the 13th century. For some bizarre reason westerners call it Byzantine empire. This is a misnomer. The inhabitants referred to themselves as Romans. To appreciate how barbaric Western Europe was, consider that in the eighteen century there were neither public toilets nor street lighting in London, Paris, etc. In contrast to Istanbul, where both were ubiquitous. As far as I know the last woman to be burned for witchcraft in Europe was in 1850s in Switzerland. In our part of the world (former Ottoman Empire) we never had such practices. Unlike the multiple times the eshkenazi jews were killed and deported throughout Western Europe and the Russian empire this was never practice in the Ottoman Empire or Persia
The ruler of China, however autocratic, does not even compare with the death and destruction brought by Putin, Trump and Netanyahu , all of whom invaded countries for no reason other than corruption and money.
You could argue anything you want about internal policies and you will probably be right. It does not however give you or anybody else the right to invade. The fact is that neither China nor Iran have invaded anyone in the past few hundred years. If China decide to restore their empire they should invade all of Indochina (Vietnam, etc) and Korea. Iran should invade Pakistan, etc., etc.
Finally what is to come is governed by economics not internal politics or war. China has what it takes. Regardless if we like it or not.
There's also a mathematical model which predicts that (due to exhaustion of available arable land), the economy will collapse in the next decade and a new equilibrium will emerge with a total world population of about 1 billion people (the limits to growth, see the Wikipedia article)
You are spreading Western/US PR BS when you say Xi is a murderous ruler.
What precisely are the Chinese doing to Tibetans and their creepy CIA-paid god-king? Besides stamping out their deeply fucked up feudal society of serfdom, slavery and child abuse, not all that much as far as I can tell. Life seems pretty good in Tibet, much like in China itself.
As far as the Uyghurs go, almost all the allegations and information of the so-called Uyghur genocide comes from one Adrian Zenz, a rabid anti-communist Christian fundamentalist loony who hasn't been to China in over 20 years, and who feeds his dodgy Sinophobic grist to the eager mill of a US media and State Dept looking to damage China's reputation and cause internal strife (notably the Muslim world was never sold on the US's stories of Chinese Islamophobia in Xinjiang.) Most of Zenz's allegations are fabrications or just pure bunkum--e.g., banning mosques, massive internment camps, organ harvesting--and are primarily based on drawing absurd conclusions from publicly available CCP data. There's nothing even close to the daily torrent of horror being documented in Gaza, for example, and most of the evidence would not pass muster in a court of law. I urge people to actually interrogate the allegations with a critical and objective eye. You'll quickly realize that it's mostly garbage, a molehill insisting it's a mountain. Unfortunately most do not do this. Instead they credulously and uncritically accept whatever they're told regardless of who is telling it and why. Nobody ever seems to question why we need to hear this story and not that one, why this explanation is proffered and not that one, why "we" have the news, and "they" have propaganda, etc. Anyway, this doesn't mean the Chinese are angels, but as anyone with more than a passing understanding of Xinjiang, ETIM, etc will know, it's not like their security and policing zeal came from nowhere. And things have improved in the last few years, especially as a lot of the people causing the problems have fled to Syria, Iraq, etc where they now fight under the banner of black flag with white Arabic script... The remaining 11 million or so Uyghurs who aren't in terrorist groups or fomenting violence against the state continue to live pretty happily and comfortably in China. (If you want to see everyday life in Xinjiang, a Youtube channel I like is Katherine's Journey to the East. She is an American who married a Uyghur who she met while studying in China.) Overall, China's treatment of its minority populations like the Uyghurs is certainly no worse--and in my opinion, probably a lot better--than America's treatment of African Americans, for example.
Finally, the Falun Gong are a literal cult who traffic in embittered lies and conspiracy theories.
China's murder and misery footprint is infinitesimally smaller than America's. China hasn't dropped a single bomb on another country in almost 50 years, whereas America drops so many bombs that just a couple weeks ago they "accidentally" killed around 170 school girls and everyone just kind of shrugged their shoulders. So, yeah, I'd be happy to give the Chinese a shot, not that it's up for debate--the next century will be Chinese whether we like it or not. China seems far more interested in trade and stability than attempting a re-run of 19th/20th century colonialism, or committing a genocide, or fighting "wars on terror", or "spreading democracy", etc. The world currently has several "murderous rulers with zero empathy" and Xi, for all his faults, is not one of them, at least not if you examine the evidence with clear eyes.
Excellent, I agree with you on this, especially since what's happening, in my view, is a resounding failure for the Americans and Israelis. I think the depletion of their stockpiles will make Israel, in this fourth week of the war, deeply regret it. From my understanding of their operations, the Iranians might launch powerful attacks after confirming the exhaustion of the Israelis' air defense systems, especially with the Patriot batteries in Jordan being hit again by a drone launched by the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. Ultimately, it seems that America is helping the Revolutionary Guard strengthen its influence even in Iraq after the withdrawal of foreign and American forces. I wager that Iraq might have something similar to the Revolutionary Guard in Iran after the war ends, which would be a greater and more significant threat to countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. Or, if I may say so, there will be other Houthis in Iraq, similar to the Houthis in Yemen, with a large missile arsenal after the end of this conflict, which I don't expect to last much longer.
Thanks Tom, as always, a different and refreshing perspective from the mass media and the experten. What do you make of reports that the Saudis are encouraging Trump to double down and take advantage of this "historical opportunity" to reshape the region? The Saudis wouldn't be too troubled if the Gulf states most dependent on Hormuz took the heaviest hit in the long term (and would force them to reorient and diversify with alternative export routes and infrastructure through Saudi Arabia). Their bigger concern always seems to be seen to align publicly with Israel.
Hmm, if only there was a photo of Trump and the Saudi king clutching a large glowing globe of the planet in their hands. It would demonstrate perfectly the fantasy world they inhabit. But there isn't such a picture. No. Not one.
Another interesting article with more pieces of the puzzle revealed.
What a coincidence! I just watched an older two-part documentary about oil, which, among other things, showed how Ronald Reagan economically crippled the USSR against the resistance of the Europeans (who even back then wanted to be economically dependent on the USSR).
He was a president who didn't choose his advisors based on their willingness to please.
Should Israel actually run out of anti-ballistic missile defense systems soon, the strategic landscape would change dramatically.
I have no evidence to the contrary, but I do not share your sentiment, that the war is a lost cause for the agressors yet, at least for Israel. Sure, for the US and Iran it was a lose-lose right from the start, but US interests aren't on the agenda anyway. They don't need a strategy, as they are "just" providing a service, following Israeli orders and providing protection and support for the Israeli campaign.
The Israelis have a strategy and their actions align perfectly with it. They want the complete collapse of the governmental and societal structures of the nation and fracture along ethnic lines. Even though nothing has materialized in regards to the latter (yet), the first points are progressing and the longer they can continue, the greater the chance of success, imho. It is a matter of whether they can keep the US long enough in this quagmire and have them pay their bills.
They have destroyed everything they can reach: All police stations, hospitals and healtcare facilities, schools and universities, industries, airports and seaports. Not to mention the attacks on desalination plants, oil depots, natural gas facilities and very soon the energy infrastructure. If given just enough time, they will flatten every city. And they don't have to finish it now, no? This war is the continuation of the start in June 2025 and nothing will keep them from the third installment, in a couple of months or years, after reloading for another round.
Regarding decapitation: I think they have killed over 30 officials and counting. Already at the start of the aggression, has Israel declared that their goal is to kill everybody in the Iranian leadership, "past, present and future". Therefore they have not just bombed the home of former president Ahmadinejad, but also every prison and home, were opposition figures are imprisoned, under house-arrest or normally living. The status of which are so far unknown, at least afaik.
According to Israeli reports, the only reason why FM Araghchi and Speaker of Parliament (IRGC) Ghalibaf have not yet been eliminated, is because the US asked the Israelis not to. But let's be honest. They didn't ask, but begged. If Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran, than the USA is the proxy of Israel, with the neat difference that the proxy is financing the master.
Your overall analysis is, as always, very striking and your description of the "north-koreanization" of the IRI absolutely on point. IRI media had reported, that for every role in the system, depending on the significance, there are three to seven planned successors. If those planned successors are exhausted, I wouldn't rule out the availability of unplanned successors. And as long as the regime survives, with every successor the IRI is practically under reform/transformation, but not as we could hope in the past: The successors are more hardliners, principalists and fundamentalists. The moment they stabilize and consolidate power again, high chance they will go on a killing spree for even the smallest of fish in the population, to send a clear message.
The fact that Ahmad Vahidi is now the head of the IRGC and de-facto appointed Mohammed Bagher Zolghadr as secretary of the SNSC, is a harbinger of bad things to come. The Paydari Front is now taking over the IRI and unlike Larijani and Ghalibaf, who were/are considered moderate or pragmatic conservatives, the Paydari Front is at the right end of the spectrum of hardliners or "right-wing" in Iran. Since Zolghadr is by all accounts considered a "light weight" (to borrow from Trump), relative to Vahidi, it is appearant that he ist just a messenger and the SNSC is no longer a strategic decision-making body. It is another indication, as you stated Tom, that the IRGC is making all the security related decisions and coordinations now. It fits the rumours, that president Pezeshkian has complained that he and his government are completely sidelined by the IRGC. Apparently he threatened with a very public resignation, which the IRGC "turned down".
I have read the claim, but not yet anything official, that Khamenei doesn't intend to "re-issue" the fatwa from his father, to the prohibition of nuclear weapons. Now that I write this, I actually feel like the IRGC is more similar to Israel right now and a "Israelization" of Iran even more on point.
Something very stupid and disgusting which i see more in Western societies is their belive in their "Superiority" in morals (like king leopold enslaving and cutting peoples hands but thats ok becouse they were "Barbarians" and the Europeans "Civilized", or people justfying the genocide in gaza becouse "they kill gay people") and in warfare too, like how Trump disregarded the Iranians ability to defend themselfs and the dozens of times this happened before, like the exemple at gallipoli
Not correct. After the exposure of the horrors in the congo, there was an uproar in England. Morals have always been a force, it also put an end to the slavetrade. Most western societies don't justify the genocide in Gaza. Have you noticed the drop in support for Israel in the US? Israel is already toxic in Europe. But I understand your frustration.
Not saying the entirety of these societies but a large group of people in them, including the leadership especially in Israel do sometimes unfortunatly think about this, and its good that you point out the outrage in England, the problem is the the fact that something like that happened in the first place, and then stopped
The one difference between then and now is the rise of social media where the narrative is no longer in the hands of mainstream media (MSM). Increasingly, people are turning towards alternative news sources, e.g., Zeteo, Double Down News, Heather Cox Richardson, etc., for a more complete picture of what's going on (splashed with opinions of course, but why not if they're sensible), while the likes of Secular Talk and Breaking Points appeal more to the younger(ish) generation and are generally up-to-date with "controversial" news not broadcast by MSM, albeit with occasional cock-ups in accuracy, and a lean towards hyperbole on occasion. Notably, the majority are US based, and I must confess to not knowing any heavyweights in Europe (Mr Cooper aside of course, and DDN) and those that I do know of (Mr Cooper aside of course, and DDN) are usually out of touch, rather thin on actual facts, and very limp when it comes to morality (as an aside, the various US sites can be exceptionally scathing and refreshingly brutal in the latter regard). We in Europe need equivalents to those US/Canadian based news sites (Mr Cooper's blog being an example of course, but more accessible to the masses on such sites as ytube).
In other words, few major crimes against humanity are hidden nowadays and are often relayed in real time - witness the ongoing Gaza genocide (and the genocide that is about to happen in Lebanon, and possibly the West Bank). Once seen, no-one who is genuinely human is supportive of such horrors and they also witness the stark contradiction to what they are seeing and hearing with their own eyes to what they are being told by MSM and dodgy politicians. The problem today is that much of the MSM and many politicians (including their parties) have been brought by, brought off, blackmailed or indoctrinated by, in this case, the Israeli propaganda machine, which really does have its tentacles where it needs them. However, due to the relatively new phenomenon of social media at large, the mask has been pulled from the faces of the sadists in power in quite a short time relative to that in history. Indeed, it took over 20 years for the Congo horrors to be exposed, and even then it was by Leopold hoisting his own petard.
My main concern is apathy of the "people" and normalisation of the abnormal resulting from "burn-out" of seeing and hearing too much of these horrors over the past few years, day in, day out, but moreover, utter frustration with our politicians doing naff all about it or even being complicit in it (strengthening the notion that we only have democracy on one day out of every 4 or 5 years).
I guess, now that we have access to news sites such as Toms, we keep pushing (VERY hard) for accountability from our politicians and media.
Nuremburg sequel would be nice, but, the protagonists of previous installments did not have one thing: worldwide 24/7/365 PRBS machine that oversaturates people with useless infotainment to a point where they no longer care about anything. Thus, I wouldn't bet a penny on anybody being held accountable for that mess. But I'll gladly eat my shorts if the future proves me wrong.
Yes! It is so pathetic that no western reporter (that I have heard anyway) has called out the US military's racist assumption that it can crush any non-white opponent. The USA has learnt nothing from recent history. And neither have the majority of Western journalists.
Btw, that passage from Heather Cox-Richardson is about as neat a summary of how a fascist dual state works as you will ever read.
WRT the American Press, MSM in particular, no such comments will be forthcoming. Our MSM is owned by pro-Trump oligarchs. The MSM was lousy even before Trump, but over the past few decades has become virtually useless as a source of objective information. More liked packaged pablum even way back "when."
As we confront Iran’s ruthless aggression and discover our steadfast strength in resilience and endurance, our thinking does not stop at a ceasefire, but turns towards solutions that ensure lasting security in the Arabian Gulf, curbing the nuclear threat, missiles, drones, and the thuggery of the straits.
BTW. why all these guys screaming about AIPAC influence and money ignores GCC countries (huge) bribes to Trump and his family?
Qatar's bribe to Trump (I think you brought it up; the plane) is a good example of why: it was generous and it was meant to stop this. And Trump went ahead and did it anyway. Shows how impotent the Arabs actually are in DC. Arab money gets results when its pushing in the same direction as Israeli influence. It has increasingly been this way since at least the 1970s. Also, it's not just about money. It's about kompromat.
Read that post again, man. That UAE gov. adviser points towards Iran as aggressor and do not praise ceasefire but clearly wants Iran's defeat. That does not sound like a wish of US withdrawal.
And you can hear similar stuff from other GCC countries, except Oman. It's not about Israel, don't be fooled. They do not like Iran's regime and IRGC and would like to see it's end, just are afraid that end may cause their end, too.
Once upon a time there was George H. W. Bush's "New World Order" upon the demise of the Soviet Union. Now Dumpf & NUTTY have opened proverbially Pandora's Box. Along with Dumpf's intended destruction of the NATO alliance and the Western oriented rules-based-order, the effects of the current Perisan Gulf SMO will reverberate around the globe well beyond oil supply disruptions & economic dislocations. Welcome to the incipient return of Spheres of Interests and more wars.
The only solution that I can see to the Persian Gulf is the oil supply drying up permanently, but that ain't gonna happen anytime soon.
All that would do is make Trump's job exponentially easier on the political level, and squander some of Iran's asymmetric leverage.
In general, since the Intifada of the early 1990s when the PLO realized that terrorism in the West had been counterproductive, in the Muslim world only the Gulf-funded Sunni extremists have carried out attacks on Western targets on Western territory.
Tell that to the right-wing media of the US (and Europe). No, I can't imagine the Iranians would be so naive as to attack American soil. Their eyes are on US presence in the Middle East and Israel.
...and anyway, the US may implode within the next year, particularly if the mid-terms are cancelled or heavily 'manipulated', which is a distinct possibility.
...and it doesn't rule out the possibility of a false flag from the Israeli's and/or their proxies (which have a history of such). Trump, if he would be privy to it, would be blackmailed/profited/sadistic/stupid not to say no to such an operation.
I understand what you’re saying. They already tried to spin the Iranian attack against Diego Garcia into some kind of “we told you Iran is out to get us” nonsense. If this war continues for much longer it is very probable that Iran will take the gloves off and start taking out military targets at the source of the problem.
Agreed. The old "crybully" excuses, much over-used by the West lately.
However, I think Iran is prepared for the long term, which the US (i.e., the Trump regime) is certainly not. Israel may want to ideologically, but if (a BIG if) the US House of Representatives and the Senate (in part) turns progressively Democrat (without AIPAC influence) later this year, assuming the elections go ahead, then that changes things a little, although Israel is such a fanatical ideological theocracy that it won't accept the defeat of 'Greater Israel' and would rather irradiate the whole of the Near and Middle East, but I digress.
Iran is not isolated either - Russia, China, Oman, Shia proxies, and now Iraq, while others such as Turkey, who have been openly threatened by Israel are becoming more pro-Iranian. Some other ME countries may be reconsidering their alliance with/reliance on US-Israel. The Iranians know this and (judging by recent events) are intelligent enough not to upset this potential re-alliance of Gulf countries, UAE aside. Russia and China would not get directly involved of course (Russia too weak, but won't hinder Iran in any way, while China will be content to supply at least parts and intelligence). Israel has alliances with increasingly right-wing Greece/Cyprus and wanna-be-dictator Modi, but I'm not sure what value they bring to the table for Israel. If anything, Israel is the one becoming isolated.
As I wrote earlier, Iran is potentially in for the long game. They will keep plugging away in a war of attrition, weakening US-Israel missile defences until they're completely depleted, while also depleting US-Israeli offensive weapons - missiles, etc., then send in the big stuff (if, of course, they have it). Of course, Iran's defences would have to hold up during that time. I'm also leaving out a potential ground invasion by the US, which could be a total disaster for the US or simply prolong the war (hmmm... ...I wonder if it will occur on a Saturday early morning?!)
Attacks on the US mainland? Hopefully not civilian, but maybe the possibility of such things as unexplained fires at Northrop Grumman's industrial facilities, etc.
Tom, you said that this is a stupid war. That might be the case for the US, but what about for Israel? Surely for Israel it's a magnificently clever war?
They are destroying a lot of Iran's military and civil assets and abilities, the division between Iran and the Gulf states is deepened. It's possible that after this war Iran might be isolated and sanctioned like Iraq was.
The price Israel has to pay for all of this seems to be small, and the US will replenish Israel's armouries anyway.
This war seems to be a pretty good outcome for Israel and a great achievement by Netanyahu.
That seems to be Netanyahu’s plan but at this point it doesn’t look like it will be successful. A failure of the plan could be devastating to Israel. Like the US, Israel has repeatedly chosen a corrupt and incompetent fascist to be its leader and is now discovering the downside.
Bibi saw this war as now or never. They keep a close eye thru AIPAC ON US politics, and know trump’s party willlose the House and may the Senate in November.
Keep them coming, always appreciated!
Great one 👍 Yes, the Third Nuremberg Trial👍
What you saying here is not news to any intelligence in united stupid america, but IQ47 does not listen to them or has them make Fox News type programs for him to watch, because he reads less than my 2 year old toddler.
I'm fine with paying more for gas, because watching IQ47 doing Puddings 3 day SMO is well worth it! Watching half the country and almost all of GOP support him, priceless!
Yes, yes, civilians die, very bad, but it's the cost of demolishing current "world order", which is no better than what Mad Max had.
I still don't get why people are afraid of total nuclear war. 90% of this planet population are useless, greedy, selfish, ignorant morons anyway. How else we got the leaders we currently have or had for past...whatever timeframe leaders were chosen to begin with.
I suggest anyone, as I suggested my kids, family, friends, that ignore anything and everything outside your bubble. Spend time with family and friends, because there were wars, genocide and all the horrible crap for thousands of years before us and will be thousands of years after we are gone. It is what it is.
IMHO if mankind continues on the current path there won't be thousands of years for our species left.
There will, just not the way we think. We will soon be entering the era of peace and prosperity brought upon they world by the imminent rise of first Xi dynasty
Are you sarcastic or really believing that (which would be pure nonsense)?
well, both actually. The world order lead by the USA is clearly disinteresting. China surpassed the US in industrial output in 2014 and now has double the US industrial output. So the empire is collapsing. Another one should rise, no?
Alternatively it can be like after the collapse of the Roman Empire. Part of the Empire continued in the east (Europe nowadays?) The rest entered a millennia of chaos and barbarism.
Who knows?
Just a note - if I remember correctly, the average lifetime of a mammalian species is about seven million years, so there is is time ...
1) So you expect from a murderous ruler with zero (0) empathy an era of peace and prosperity? (Hint: Study his life, look what the Chinese do in Tibet, with the Uighurs, with the members of the Falun Gong...).
2) If you want to spread PR BS for China then no further discussion needed.
3) The western part of the Roman Empire was the ONLY existing organized state in Europe and Christianity was hostile to education at that time, so that comparison doesn't fit at all.
4) As you are a believer in statistics, so your own life is just statistics? (Yes that was sarcastic).
The Roman Empire moved it's capital from Rome to Constantinople (today's Istanbul). The western part disintegrated and chaos and barbarism ensued. The eastern part continued, formally for the another millennium, in reality until the end of the 13th century. For some bizarre reason westerners call it Byzantine empire. This is a misnomer. The inhabitants referred to themselves as Romans. To appreciate how barbaric Western Europe was, consider that in the eighteen century there were neither public toilets nor street lighting in London, Paris, etc. In contrast to Istanbul, where both were ubiquitous. As far as I know the last woman to be burned for witchcraft in Europe was in 1850s in Switzerland. In our part of the world (former Ottoman Empire) we never had such practices. Unlike the multiple times the eshkenazi jews were killed and deported throughout Western Europe and the Russian empire this was never practice in the Ottoman Empire or Persia
The ruler of China, however autocratic, does not even compare with the death and destruction brought by Putin, Trump and Netanyahu , all of whom invaded countries for no reason other than corruption and money.
You could argue anything you want about internal policies and you will probably be right. It does not however give you or anybody else the right to invade. The fact is that neither China nor Iran have invaded anyone in the past few hundred years. If China decide to restore their empire they should invade all of Indochina (Vietnam, etc) and Korea. Iran should invade Pakistan, etc., etc.
Finally what is to come is governed by economics not internal politics or war. China has what it takes. Regardless if we like it or not.
There's also a mathematical model which predicts that (due to exhaustion of available arable land), the economy will collapse in the next decade and a new equilibrium will emerge with a total world population of about 1 billion people (the limits to growth, see the Wikipedia article)
You are spreading Western/US PR BS when you say Xi is a murderous ruler.
What precisely are the Chinese doing to Tibetans and their creepy CIA-paid god-king? Besides stamping out their deeply fucked up feudal society of serfdom, slavery and child abuse, not all that much as far as I can tell. Life seems pretty good in Tibet, much like in China itself.
As far as the Uyghurs go, almost all the allegations and information of the so-called Uyghur genocide comes from one Adrian Zenz, a rabid anti-communist Christian fundamentalist loony who hasn't been to China in over 20 years, and who feeds his dodgy Sinophobic grist to the eager mill of a US media and State Dept looking to damage China's reputation and cause internal strife (notably the Muslim world was never sold on the US's stories of Chinese Islamophobia in Xinjiang.) Most of Zenz's allegations are fabrications or just pure bunkum--e.g., banning mosques, massive internment camps, organ harvesting--and are primarily based on drawing absurd conclusions from publicly available CCP data. There's nothing even close to the daily torrent of horror being documented in Gaza, for example, and most of the evidence would not pass muster in a court of law. I urge people to actually interrogate the allegations with a critical and objective eye. You'll quickly realize that it's mostly garbage, a molehill insisting it's a mountain. Unfortunately most do not do this. Instead they credulously and uncritically accept whatever they're told regardless of who is telling it and why. Nobody ever seems to question why we need to hear this story and not that one, why this explanation is proffered and not that one, why "we" have the news, and "they" have propaganda, etc. Anyway, this doesn't mean the Chinese are angels, but as anyone with more than a passing understanding of Xinjiang, ETIM, etc will know, it's not like their security and policing zeal came from nowhere. And things have improved in the last few years, especially as a lot of the people causing the problems have fled to Syria, Iraq, etc where they now fight under the banner of black flag with white Arabic script... The remaining 11 million or so Uyghurs who aren't in terrorist groups or fomenting violence against the state continue to live pretty happily and comfortably in China. (If you want to see everyday life in Xinjiang, a Youtube channel I like is Katherine's Journey to the East. She is an American who married a Uyghur who she met while studying in China.) Overall, China's treatment of its minority populations like the Uyghurs is certainly no worse--and in my opinion, probably a lot better--than America's treatment of African Americans, for example.
Finally, the Falun Gong are a literal cult who traffic in embittered lies and conspiracy theories.
China's murder and misery footprint is infinitesimally smaller than America's. China hasn't dropped a single bomb on another country in almost 50 years, whereas America drops so many bombs that just a couple weeks ago they "accidentally" killed around 170 school girls and everyone just kind of shrugged their shoulders. So, yeah, I'd be happy to give the Chinese a shot, not that it's up for debate--the next century will be Chinese whether we like it or not. China seems far more interested in trade and stability than attempting a re-run of 19th/20th century colonialism, or committing a genocide, or fighting "wars on terror", or "spreading democracy", etc. The world currently has several "murderous rulers with zero empathy" and Xi, for all his faults, is not one of them, at least not if you examine the evidence with clear eyes.
Excellent, I agree with you on this, especially since what's happening, in my view, is a resounding failure for the Americans and Israelis. I think the depletion of their stockpiles will make Israel, in this fourth week of the war, deeply regret it. From my understanding of their operations, the Iranians might launch powerful attacks after confirming the exhaustion of the Israelis' air defense systems, especially with the Patriot batteries in Jordan being hit again by a drone launched by the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. Ultimately, it seems that America is helping the Revolutionary Guard strengthen its influence even in Iraq after the withdrawal of foreign and American forces. I wager that Iraq might have something similar to the Revolutionary Guard in Iran after the war ends, which would be a greater and more significant threat to countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. Or, if I may say so, there will be other Houthis in Iraq, similar to the Houthis in Yemen, with a large missile arsenal after the end of this conflict, which I don't expect to last much longer.
Thanks Tom, as always, a different and refreshing perspective from the mass media and the experten. What do you make of reports that the Saudis are encouraging Trump to double down and take advantage of this "historical opportunity" to reshape the region? The Saudis wouldn't be too troubled if the Gulf states most dependent on Hormuz took the heaviest hit in the long term (and would force them to reorient and diversify with alternative export routes and infrastructure through Saudi Arabia). Their bigger concern always seems to be seen to align publicly with Israel.
Re. Saudis... considering reports like this one - https://english.aawsat.com/gulf/5254959-saudi-arabia-denies-it-favors-prolonging-war - I'm this short >< of concluding that the entire story with MbS 'encouraging and pushing' IQ47 to attack Iran 'even more' is not yet another of Israeli false flags.
I'm sure, the UAE is doing so... but, MbS...?
Hm...
Even more so considering the Saudis are getting this kind of stuff to hear from their media:
https://english.aawsat.com/world/5255955-intelligence-us-can-only-confirm-about-third-irans-missile-arsenal-destroyed
Hmm, if only there was a photo of Trump and the Saudi king clutching a large glowing globe of the planet in their hands. It would demonstrate perfectly the fantasy world they inhabit. But there isn't such a picture. No. Not one.
Plus the Saudis are partners with Turkey opposing Israel/UAE in Africa.
Another interesting article with more pieces of the puzzle revealed.
What a coincidence! I just watched an older two-part documentary about oil, which, among other things, showed how Ronald Reagan economically crippled the USSR against the resistance of the Europeans (who even back then wanted to be economically dependent on the USSR).
He was a president who didn't choose his advisors based on their willingness to please.
Should Israel actually run out of anti-ballistic missile defense systems soon, the strategic landscape would change dramatically.
Whether or not, we will see in the near future.
I have no evidence to the contrary, but I do not share your sentiment, that the war is a lost cause for the agressors yet, at least for Israel. Sure, for the US and Iran it was a lose-lose right from the start, but US interests aren't on the agenda anyway. They don't need a strategy, as they are "just" providing a service, following Israeli orders and providing protection and support for the Israeli campaign.
The Israelis have a strategy and their actions align perfectly with it. They want the complete collapse of the governmental and societal structures of the nation and fracture along ethnic lines. Even though nothing has materialized in regards to the latter (yet), the first points are progressing and the longer they can continue, the greater the chance of success, imho. It is a matter of whether they can keep the US long enough in this quagmire and have them pay their bills.
They have destroyed everything they can reach: All police stations, hospitals and healtcare facilities, schools and universities, industries, airports and seaports. Not to mention the attacks on desalination plants, oil depots, natural gas facilities and very soon the energy infrastructure. If given just enough time, they will flatten every city. And they don't have to finish it now, no? This war is the continuation of the start in June 2025 and nothing will keep them from the third installment, in a couple of months or years, after reloading for another round.
Regarding decapitation: I think they have killed over 30 officials and counting. Already at the start of the aggression, has Israel declared that their goal is to kill everybody in the Iranian leadership, "past, present and future". Therefore they have not just bombed the home of former president Ahmadinejad, but also every prison and home, were opposition figures are imprisoned, under house-arrest or normally living. The status of which are so far unknown, at least afaik.
According to Israeli reports, the only reason why FM Araghchi and Speaker of Parliament (IRGC) Ghalibaf have not yet been eliminated, is because the US asked the Israelis not to. But let's be honest. They didn't ask, but begged. If Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran, than the USA is the proxy of Israel, with the neat difference that the proxy is financing the master.
Your overall analysis is, as always, very striking and your description of the "north-koreanization" of the IRI absolutely on point. IRI media had reported, that for every role in the system, depending on the significance, there are three to seven planned successors. If those planned successors are exhausted, I wouldn't rule out the availability of unplanned successors. And as long as the regime survives, with every successor the IRI is practically under reform/transformation, but not as we could hope in the past: The successors are more hardliners, principalists and fundamentalists. The moment they stabilize and consolidate power again, high chance they will go on a killing spree for even the smallest of fish in the population, to send a clear message.
The fact that Ahmad Vahidi is now the head of the IRGC and de-facto appointed Mohammed Bagher Zolghadr as secretary of the SNSC, is a harbinger of bad things to come. The Paydari Front is now taking over the IRI and unlike Larijani and Ghalibaf, who were/are considered moderate or pragmatic conservatives, the Paydari Front is at the right end of the spectrum of hardliners or "right-wing" in Iran. Since Zolghadr is by all accounts considered a "light weight" (to borrow from Trump), relative to Vahidi, it is appearant that he ist just a messenger and the SNSC is no longer a strategic decision-making body. It is another indication, as you stated Tom, that the IRGC is making all the security related decisions and coordinations now. It fits the rumours, that president Pezeshkian has complained that he and his government are completely sidelined by the IRGC. Apparently he threatened with a very public resignation, which the IRGC "turned down".
I have read the claim, but not yet anything official, that Khamenei doesn't intend to "re-issue" the fatwa from his father, to the prohibition of nuclear weapons. Now that I write this, I actually feel like the IRGC is more similar to Israel right now and a "Israelization" of Iran even more on point.
It also looks like Israel is annexing southern Lebanon? Talk of "buffer zone" reminds of west bank, no?
Yup. Is simply another part of their original plan, from back in February-March 1948.
Attempts to form a buffer zone in Southern Lebanon go back about 50 years. First invasion of Southern Lebanon was in 1978. Before that they supported proxy militias. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Lebanese_conflict
Something very stupid and disgusting which i see more in Western societies is their belive in their "Superiority" in morals (like king leopold enslaving and cutting peoples hands but thats ok becouse they were "Barbarians" and the Europeans "Civilized", or people justfying the genocide in gaza becouse "they kill gay people") and in warfare too, like how Trump disregarded the Iranians ability to defend themselfs and the dozens of times this happened before, like the exemple at gallipoli
Not correct. After the exposure of the horrors in the congo, there was an uproar in England. Morals have always been a force, it also put an end to the slavetrade. Most western societies don't justify the genocide in Gaza. Have you noticed the drop in support for Israel in the US? Israel is already toxic in Europe. But I understand your frustration.
Not saying the entirety of these societies but a large group of people in them, including the leadership especially in Israel do sometimes unfortunatly think about this, and its good that you point out the outrage in England, the problem is the the fact that something like that happened in the first place, and then stopped
There is a lot going on:
https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/israelpalestine-european-trade-union-organisations-call-on-eu-to-suspend-eu-israel-association-agreement/
The one difference between then and now is the rise of social media where the narrative is no longer in the hands of mainstream media (MSM). Increasingly, people are turning towards alternative news sources, e.g., Zeteo, Double Down News, Heather Cox Richardson, etc., for a more complete picture of what's going on (splashed with opinions of course, but why not if they're sensible), while the likes of Secular Talk and Breaking Points appeal more to the younger(ish) generation and are generally up-to-date with "controversial" news not broadcast by MSM, albeit with occasional cock-ups in accuracy, and a lean towards hyperbole on occasion. Notably, the majority are US based, and I must confess to not knowing any heavyweights in Europe (Mr Cooper aside of course, and DDN) and those that I do know of (Mr Cooper aside of course, and DDN) are usually out of touch, rather thin on actual facts, and very limp when it comes to morality (as an aside, the various US sites can be exceptionally scathing and refreshingly brutal in the latter regard). We in Europe need equivalents to those US/Canadian based news sites (Mr Cooper's blog being an example of course, but more accessible to the masses on such sites as ytube).
In other words, few major crimes against humanity are hidden nowadays and are often relayed in real time - witness the ongoing Gaza genocide (and the genocide that is about to happen in Lebanon, and possibly the West Bank). Once seen, no-one who is genuinely human is supportive of such horrors and they also witness the stark contradiction to what they are seeing and hearing with their own eyes to what they are being told by MSM and dodgy politicians. The problem today is that much of the MSM and many politicians (including their parties) have been brought by, brought off, blackmailed or indoctrinated by, in this case, the Israeli propaganda machine, which really does have its tentacles where it needs them. However, due to the relatively new phenomenon of social media at large, the mask has been pulled from the faces of the sadists in power in quite a short time relative to that in history. Indeed, it took over 20 years for the Congo horrors to be exposed, and even then it was by Leopold hoisting his own petard.
My main concern is apathy of the "people" and normalisation of the abnormal resulting from "burn-out" of seeing and hearing too much of these horrors over the past few years, day in, day out, but moreover, utter frustration with our politicians doing naff all about it or even being complicit in it (strengthening the notion that we only have democracy on one day out of every 4 or 5 years).
I guess, now that we have access to news sites such as Toms, we keep pushing (VERY hard) for accountability from our politicians and media.
Nuremburg sequel would be nice, but, the protagonists of previous installments did not have one thing: worldwide 24/7/365 PRBS machine that oversaturates people with useless infotainment to a point where they no longer care about anything. Thus, I wouldn't bet a penny on anybody being held accountable for that mess. But I'll gladly eat my shorts if the future proves me wrong.
We two are going to enjoy our shorts - with few glasses of some very old Malbec.
I hope that they are nutritious shorts ... good, but please remember the Bidet Comment in your previous substack post! **LOL**
Yes! It is so pathetic that no western reporter (that I have heard anyway) has called out the US military's racist assumption that it can crush any non-white opponent. The USA has learnt nothing from recent history. And neither have the majority of Western journalists.
Btw, that passage from Heather Cox-Richardson is about as neat a summary of how a fascist dual state works as you will ever read.
WRT the American Press, MSM in particular, no such comments will be forthcoming. Our MSM is owned by pro-Trump oligarchs. The MSM was lousy even before Trump, but over the past few decades has become virtually useless as a source of objective information. More liked packaged pablum even way back "when."
Not everything is Israel. UAE https://x.com/AnwarGargash/status/2035721594887381008
(autotranslate)
As we confront Iran’s ruthless aggression and discover our steadfast strength in resilience and endurance, our thinking does not stop at a ceasefire, but turns towards solutions that ensure lasting security in the Arabian Gulf, curbing the nuclear threat, missiles, drones, and the thuggery of the straits.
BTW. why all these guys screaming about AIPAC influence and money ignores GCC countries (huge) bribes to Trump and his family?
Because nobody screamed about AIPAC before.
Qatar's bribe to Trump (I think you brought it up; the plane) is a good example of why: it was generous and it was meant to stop this. And Trump went ahead and did it anyway. Shows how impotent the Arabs actually are in DC. Arab money gets results when its pushing in the same direction as Israeli influence. It has increasingly been this way since at least the 1970s. Also, it's not just about money. It's about kompromat.
Read that post again, man. That UAE gov. adviser points towards Iran as aggressor and do not praise ceasefire but clearly wants Iran's defeat. That does not sound like a wish of US withdrawal.
UAE bribe https://www.reuters.com/investigations/inside-trump-familys-global-crypto-cash-machine-2025-10-28/
And you can hear similar stuff from other GCC countries, except Oman. It's not about Israel, don't be fooled. They do not like Iran's regime and IRGC and would like to see it's end, just are afraid that end may cause their end, too.
Indeed, and the Gulf Arabs have to be asking, what have the US bases done for them at this point. Time to make a deal.
And you put even better titles lagely 🔝✅
Once upon a time there was George H. W. Bush's "New World Order" upon the demise of the Soviet Union. Now Dumpf & NUTTY have opened proverbially Pandora's Box. Along with Dumpf's intended destruction of the NATO alliance and the Western oriented rules-based-order, the effects of the current Perisan Gulf SMO will reverberate around the globe well beyond oil supply disruptions & economic dislocations. Welcome to the incipient return of Spheres of Interests and more wars.
The only solution that I can see to the Persian Gulf is the oil supply drying up permanently, but that ain't gonna happen anytime soon.
I am surprised Iran still hasn’t launched any attack on domestic US bases and airfields. Ukraine showed them how it is done.
All that would do is make Trump's job exponentially easier on the political level, and squander some of Iran's asymmetric leverage.
In general, since the Intifada of the early 1990s when the PLO realized that terrorism in the West had been counterproductive, in the Muslim world only the Gulf-funded Sunni extremists have carried out attacks on Western targets on Western territory.
attacking expensive bombers on US soil is not terrorism during a war
Tell that to the right-wing media of the US (and Europe). No, I can't imagine the Iranians would be so naive as to attack American soil. Their eyes are on US presence in the Middle East and Israel.
...and anyway, the US may implode within the next year, particularly if the mid-terms are cancelled or heavily 'manipulated', which is a distinct possibility.
...and it doesn't rule out the possibility of a false flag from the Israeli's and/or their proxies (which have a history of such). Trump, if he would be privy to it, would be blackmailed/profited/sadistic/stupid not to say no to such an operation.
I understand what you’re saying. They already tried to spin the Iranian attack against Diego Garcia into some kind of “we told you Iran is out to get us” nonsense. If this war continues for much longer it is very probable that Iran will take the gloves off and start taking out military targets at the source of the problem.
Agreed. The old "crybully" excuses, much over-used by the West lately.
However, I think Iran is prepared for the long term, which the US (i.e., the Trump regime) is certainly not. Israel may want to ideologically, but if (a BIG if) the US House of Representatives and the Senate (in part) turns progressively Democrat (without AIPAC influence) later this year, assuming the elections go ahead, then that changes things a little, although Israel is such a fanatical ideological theocracy that it won't accept the defeat of 'Greater Israel' and would rather irradiate the whole of the Near and Middle East, but I digress.
Iran is not isolated either - Russia, China, Oman, Shia proxies, and now Iraq, while others such as Turkey, who have been openly threatened by Israel are becoming more pro-Iranian. Some other ME countries may be reconsidering their alliance with/reliance on US-Israel. The Iranians know this and (judging by recent events) are intelligent enough not to upset this potential re-alliance of Gulf countries, UAE aside. Russia and China would not get directly involved of course (Russia too weak, but won't hinder Iran in any way, while China will be content to supply at least parts and intelligence). Israel has alliances with increasingly right-wing Greece/Cyprus and wanna-be-dictator Modi, but I'm not sure what value they bring to the table for Israel. If anything, Israel is the one becoming isolated.
As I wrote earlier, Iran is potentially in for the long game. They will keep plugging away in a war of attrition, weakening US-Israel missile defences until they're completely depleted, while also depleting US-Israeli offensive weapons - missiles, etc., then send in the big stuff (if, of course, they have it). Of course, Iran's defences would have to hold up during that time. I'm also leaving out a potential ground invasion by the US, which could be a total disaster for the US or simply prolong the war (hmmm... ...I wonder if it will occur on a Saturday early morning?!)
Attacks on the US mainland? Hopefully not civilian, but maybe the possibility of such things as unexplained fires at Northrop Grumman's industrial facilities, etc.
Tom, you said that this is a stupid war. That might be the case for the US, but what about for Israel? Surely for Israel it's a magnificently clever war?
They are destroying a lot of Iran's military and civil assets and abilities, the division between Iran and the Gulf states is deepened. It's possible that after this war Iran might be isolated and sanctioned like Iraq was.
The price Israel has to pay for all of this seems to be small, and the US will replenish Israel's armouries anyway.
This war seems to be a pretty good outcome for Israel and a great achievement by Netanyahu.
That seems to be Netanyahu’s plan but at this point it doesn’t look like it will be successful. A failure of the plan could be devastating to Israel. Like the US, Israel has repeatedly chosen a corrupt and incompetent fascist to be its leader and is now discovering the downside.
Bibi saw this war as now or never. They keep a close eye thru AIPAC ON US politics, and know trump’s party willlose the House and may the Senate in November.