A Hellfire Missile in Every Backyard: The Democratization of Guided Munitions

by Benjamin Cook (short intro by Tom Cooper)

Hello everybody!

Due to the collapse of internet services in the area where Don’s living, we’re starting this Monday in unusual fashion: with a feature by Benjamin.

Be sure, Don and me are determined to deliver the usual Don’s Weekly as soon as only possible.

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A Lesson we will learn far too late

With only three months of focused learning and practice, an individual can now develop the competence needed to assemble and operate a small unmanned and armed aerial system outside the constraints embedded in mass-market platforms like DJI. The relevant factors are the availability of pro-sumer level components, open source software, and informal training pathways, which have lowered the skill threshold required to field a functional system. Put another way, 3D printing, online shopping, GPS, and YouTube have democratized the guided missile.

Airframe assembly, basic navigation control, and remote operation no longer require institutional access or specialized facilities. Compliance features such as geofencing or identification protocols exist only because mainstream manufacturers choose to include them, not because they are a requirement of the technology itself.

When paired with surprise and audacity, even modest platforms can be directed against targets whose value far exceeds the scale of the system used. Audacity can fix precision problems and avoid counter measures. As a result, sensitive and high-value targets face growing exposure.

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What I Write next scared ChatGPT (It does not want to be the one teaching this information.)

With a VPN and not as much searching as you would think, anyone can have recipes for ordinance. Budget friendly low tech? One could go the Boston bomber route. Gun powder and nails. Basically a pipebomb. This isn’t actually an explosive. This is deflagration and pressure. A high energy burn. It’s also heavy. There is a way however to take this low tech and marry it with physics and some “stuff” from the hardware store or the sporting goods store and make it a high explosive. Now you are in the anti-material or mass casualty category.

Next, the DIY terrorist will need to learn how to build the drone. Do they want to go a long distance? Fixed wing. Do they want maneuverability? Quad copter. Alibaba, Amazon, and AliExpress all have options. They are going to need to learn how to read an electrical schematic, practice soldering, and know how to execute and install code via the command line—which, in reality, is only slightly more complicated than copy/paste.

All of this drone knowledge is open-source. Software, including community support, is available online. There are forums and associations that cater to the novice drone enthusiast.

The last thing needed is practice. There is now online software that lets one simulate drone flight. But eventually, anyone serious about accurate flight, will need open spaces to crash the first drone over and over.

So now, with about 90 days of effort and a budget of less than $2,000, the garage-pilot can have their very own guided missile. It can be guided by a person, guided by GPS, and even by Google Maps.

Okay. So what I just told you is an oversimplification.

With no real-world training, the backyard DIY missile learning curve is steep. The main struggle is SWaP—balancing Size, Weight, and Power just to make the system fly at all. This is what actually prevents the average disgruntled, angry individual from building their own missiles: the effort, math, and sustained dedication required for trial and error. In other words, what keeps most would-be terrorists from attacking a favorite sporting event with a homemade guided missile is a lack of focus. It is not money. It is not a lack of information. It is a lack of effort and time—along with a desire not to get caught. If a DIY weapons builder does not care about being caught, they could simply acquire a commercial off-the-shelf drone and attach an improvised payload. That individual, however, will be caught—likely within 24 hours.

Now take this scenario and add time and money. Resources of the kind available to a terrorist organization, a transnational criminal network, or a drug cartel. With those inputs, iteration becomes possible. What is learned in the first 90 days informs the next version, then the next—DIY 2.0, followed by incremental improvement. Alternatively, expertise and technology transfers can be purchased outright, including from the Russian Wagner Group or Iranian Quds Force.

The point is simple. Pandora’s box is open.

Images taken from Wild Hornets Telegram page. Follow them at https://t.me/wild_hornets

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Benjamin Cook continues to travel to, often lives in, and works in Ukraine, a connection spanning more than 14 years. He holds an MA in International Security and Conflict Studies from Dublin City University and has consulted with journalists and intelligence professionals on AI in drones, U.S. military technology, and open-source intelligence (OSINT) related to the war in Ukraine. He is co-founder of the nonprofit UAO, working in southern Ukraine. You can find Mr. Cook between Odesa, Ukraine; Charleston, South Carolina; and Tucson, Arizona.

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